The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Trae Young will have the unenviable fortune of being compared to Luka Doncic for his entire career, who is one of the MVP frontrunners at just 20 years old. That said, Young has been excellent in his own right this season and is one pace to set new career-highs across the board. His average of 1.30 FanDuel points per minute is the top mark at the PG position.
He’s in a nice spot today vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves. This figures to be the best game of the day from a fantasy perspective, with both teams currently ranking in the top nine in pace. The total sits at 236 points, and the Hawks’ implied team total of 116.0 ranks second on the slate.
Young leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $9,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%.
Value
Malcolm Brogdon is set to return to the Pacers’ lineup today, and he owns an elite matchup vs. the Memphis Grizzlies. They rank sixth in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency this season, which is a juicy combination for fantasy. They’ve struggled in particular against opposing PGs, giving Brogdon an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.35 on DraftKings.
Brogdon could be limited in his first game back from injury, but that’s not really a concern given his current salary on DraftKings. His price has decreased to just $6,000, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%. He’s averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute, so he doesn’t need to play more than 30 minutes to pay off his current salary.
Fast Break
Chris Paul has quietly been a strong fantasy asset recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.55 over his past 10 games. He’s increased his production to 1.13 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he has a nice matchup today vs. the Golden State Warriors. They’ve been a train wreck defensively to start the season, ranking 29th in defensive efficiency.
Rajon Rondo stands out on FanDuel, where his $4,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He hasn’t been asked to play many minutes to start the season, but that hasn’t prevented him from posting a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games. He’s in a nice spot vs. the San Antonio Spurs, who rank merely 27th in defensive efficiency this season.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Jimmy Butler is coming off his worst game of the season, scoring just 25.25 DraftKings points in 30.1 minutes vs. the 76ers. That’s caused his salary to drop to just $7,700 on DraftKings, which is $900 cheaper than he was for his last contest. His currently price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%, and Butler has averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.60 with a comparable salary this season (per the Trends tool).
He’s in a solid spot today vs. the Charlotte Hornets, who rank tied for 24th in defensive efficiency this season. Butler’s 11 Pro Trends also ranks second at the position on DraftKings.
Value
Evan Fournier got off to a slow start this season, but he’s completely turned things around recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games on FanDuel, and he has the opportunity to carry a larger offensive load for the Magic tonight. Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon, and Michael Carter-Williams have all been ruled out, and Fournier has led the team with a 28.7% usage rate with all three players off the court this season. The result is an average of 0.91 FanDuel points per minute.
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22).
Fast Break
Spencer Dinwiddie continues to get the job done in relief of Kyrie Irving. He’s scored at least 40.8 FanDuel points in three of his past four games, and the only exception was when he scored 36.7 FanDuel points in just 27.7 minutes. Overall, he leads the team with a 34.8% usage rate and has averaged 1.22 FanDuel points per minute with Irving and Caris LeVert off the court this season.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is putting together a solid season for the Thunder. He leads the team with an average of 35.0 minutes per game, and he’s averaged 0.93 FanDuel points per minute. He’s another member of the Thunder backcourt worth considering vs. the Warriors.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo has been the best fantasy producer on a per-minute basis this season, and it really isn’t close. He’s averaged 1.93 DraftKings points per minute thanks to his ability to fill up every category of the stat sheet. He’s averaging career-highs in points, rebounds, and assists per game, and he’s also contributing an average of 1.6 steals and 1.4 blocks. The only thing that has been able to stop him has been reduced minutes in blowouts, like in his last game when he scored 52.0 DraftKings points in 27.2 minutes.
With that in mind, his current matchup vs. the Jazz could work in his favor. The Jazz are not a team you want to target on a regular basis — they currently rank first in defensive efficiency — but because they aren’t huge underdogs (currently +7), Giannis could get a full workload today.
This matchup should also result in reduced ownership for Giannis, which makes him an elite target in guaranteed prize pools.
Value
Cedi Osman is coming off back-to-back games of at least 28.9 FanDuel points, yet his salary has barley budged on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $3,800 for today’s contest vs. the Brooklyn Nets, which results in a Bargain Rating of 97%. The fact that he was able to score 28.9 FanDuel points in his last contest was particularly impressive considering he shot just 2-11 from the field.
He would become one of the strongest options of the day if Kevin Love is ultimately ruled out. He missed their last contest due to a back injury and is currently listed as questionable.
Fast Break
Jonathan Isaac is going to have a massive opportunity for the shorthanded Magic today. He dominated in his last game without Vucevic and Gordon, scoring 55.3 FanDuel points in just 29.2 minutes, and he’s averaged a stout 1.60 FanDuel points per minute with Vucevic, Gordon, and Carter-Williams off the court this season. He’s way underpriced at $7,000 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 97%.
Danilo Gallinari isn’t a particularly sexy option, but his salary has dropped to a season-low $5,900 on DraftKings for today’s matchup vs. the Warriors. That’s probably too low for Gallo: He’s averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute and is currently projected for 31.5 minutes in our NBA Models. He also has one of the best individual matchups on the team, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.28 on DraftKings.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis stands out as one of the best pure values of the day on DraftKings, where his $9,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He hasn’t gotten off to a phenomenal start in his first season with the Lakers, but has scored at least 61.25 DraftKings points in two of his past three games. The Spurs have historically been Davis’ kryptonite — he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of -2.71 over his past 18 matchups — but this is clearly not the same Spurs’ defense.
Pictured: Los Angeles Lakers forward Anthony Davis (3), Photo Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports
Value
Nemanja Bjelica should continue to provide value for the shorthanded Kings. They’ll be without De’Aaron Fox, Trevor Ariza, and Marvin Bagley once again today, while Bogdan Bogdanovic is listed as questionable. Bjelica has played at least 29 minutes in five of his past six contests, and he’s scored at least 26.4 FanDuel points in each of them. He’s underpriced at $5,600 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
It’s tough to trust Jaren Jackson Jr. at the moment because his playing time is so volatile. He played 33.7 minutes in his last game after playing just 18.5 minutes in the game prior. He’s averaged 0.93 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he typically smashes in games where he sees a healthy amount of playing time. There’s no guarantee that happens tonight vs. the Pacers, but it is certainly possible. The Pacers play one of the biggest starting lineups in the league with Damontas Sabonis and Myles Turner, so Jackson could play a few additional minutes to combat their size.
If Kevin Love is active today, he makes a lot of sense vs. the Brooklyn Nets. They’ve been one of the best matchups in basketball for big men over the past two seasons, and Love owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.86 on DraftKings. He also seems underpriced at just $7,800, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 85%.
Center
Stud
The top of the center position is loaded with big names today, but none of them really stand out from a matchup perspective. Karl-Anthony Towns, Joel Embiid, and Andre Drummond all own a negative Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
That said, Embiid is worth some further consideration on DraftKings at just $8,800. That’s a pretty low salary for Embiid, and it results in a Bargain Rating of 90%. Embiid has historically smashed with a comparable price tag, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.73 over 22 contests. He leads all centers with an average of 1.61 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, but his production has been kept in check by a lack of playing time. He’s logged 27.6 minutes or less in three of his past four games, so his production should improve if he returns to his normal workload.
Value
Hassan Whiteside is priced like a value at $6,100 on DraftKings, but he has the chance to deliver stud-like production vs. the Bulls. He’s averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s played at least 29.3 minutes in three of his past four games. The Bulls are also an elite matchup, giving Whiteside an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.76.
Fast Break
Bam Adebayo is another player who seems underpriced on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $7,100, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%, and he’s in a nice spot vs. the Charlotte Hornets. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.96.
Check out The Action Network for updated NBA odds.
Pictured: Bucks F Giannis Antetokounmpo (34)
Photo Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
