The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Today’s slate is loaded with talent, and the point guard is no exception.
Russell Westbrook stands out as a top option on DraftKings, where his $9,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s had no problems transitioning to the Houston Rockets, scoring at least 62.0 DraftKings points in each of his first two games. He has seen a slight reduction in usage rate, but he continues to be an absolute monster in the peripheral categories: He’s currently averaging 13 rebounds and 10 assists per game.
The Rockets have also played at the fastest pace in the league through the first week of the season, and their implied team total of 118.75 ranks fourth on the slate. Of course, taking on the Thunder also creates an interesting dynamic with Westbrook. I’m not sure if demanding a trade results in a true “revenge game,” but he could be more motivated than usual.
Steph Curry stands out as the top option at the position if you’re paying up on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $9,200, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%.
The Warriors have gotten off to a disastrous start this season, including a blowout loss to the Thunder on Sunday. Still, it’s easy to see some big performances coming for Curry. He’s increased his usage rate to 34.7% this season, which represents an increase of +4.3% when compared to his mark from last season.
The Warriors are in a strong spot today vs. the Pelicans, who rank sixth in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency to start the year. Opposing PG Jrue Holiday is also questionable, and his absence would give Curry an easier individual matchup, as well.
Value
T.J. McConnell doesn’t offer a huge ceiling, but he should be able to return value at his current salary across the industry. He’s seeing slightly more minutes with the Pacers this season — he’s currently projected for 20 in our NBA Models — and McConnell averaged 0.87 FanDuel points per minute last year.
Fast Break
Sticking with the Pacers, Malcolm Brogdon has a chance to develop into a star after being freed from the shadow of Giannis Antetokounmpo. He’s dominated through the first two games this season, averaging a Plus/Minus of +19.41 on DraftKings. He’s probably due for some regression with his shooting numbers — he’s currently shooting 54.8% from the field and 60.0% from 3-point range — but he’s on pace to post career-highs in both usage rate and assist rate in his first year in Indiana.
Jamal Murray has posted a Plus/Minus in each of his first two games this season, and he’s in a wonderful spot today vs. the Sacramento Kings. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.32, which is one of the top marks at the position. His $6,500 salary on DraftKings is also reasonable, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 87%.
Shooting Guard
Stud
On the surface, it seems like James Harden has seen a decrease in fantasy value after the addition of Westbrook. That said, the numbers don’t back that up. He’s still posted an elite 36.4% usage rate through his first two games, including a mark of 44.6% in his last outing.
Poor shooting has been the only thing keeping Harden from being a massive value to start this season. He’s shot just 10-of-42 from the field and 3-od-26 from 3-point range, so he’s obviously due for some positive regression moving forward. He’s averaged 45.88 DraftKings points per game despite some of the worst shooting numbers in the league, so it’s scary to think about his ceiling on a night when his jump shot is falling. I’m continuing to buy him at his reduced salary, and hopefully his poor recent performances will result in reduced ownership, as well.
Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13), Memphis Grizzlies guard Jevon Carter (3).
Value
The 76ers could be a nice source of value on today’s slate. Joel Embiid is currently questionable with an ankle injury, and his absence would obviously open up a lot of opportunities for the rest of the roster.
Josh Richardson didn’t exactly dominate with Embiid out of the lineup in their last game, scoring just 22.75 DraftKings points, but his 37 minutes of playing time was encouraging. He’s shot just 33% from the field and has yet to make a 3-pointer this season, so he has room for improvement moving forward.
Fast Break
D’Angelo Russell is another member of the Warriors who deserves consideration today. This game owns the highest over/under on the slate at 237 points, so stacking a few options from both sides is definitely a viable strategy. Russell is a particularly nice value on FanDuel, where his $7,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%.
Derrick Rose has carried a massive workload for the Pistons to start the season. Blake Griffin remains out with a hamstring injury, and Reggie Jackson is doubtful with a back injury. Rose has posted a ridiculous 36.6% usage rate this season, including a mark of 43.6% with both players out of the lineup on Saturday. The result is an average of 1.40 DraftKings points per minute. He has huge upside at a reasonable price tag and is projected for modest ownership across the industry.
Small Forward
Stud
Today’s slate is littered with fantasy superstars, but Giannis Antetokounmpo might be at the top of the list. He won the MVP last season, and he’s been even better through his first two games this year. He’s currently averaging 29.5 points, 15.0 rebounds, 10.0 assists, 2.0 steals, and 1.5 blocks per game, and he’s doing all that in just 32.5 minutes! His average of 2.51 DraftKings points per minute is absolutely mind-boggling.
It’s hard to pass up that kind of production at just $10,600 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 99%. Giannis’ matchup vs. the Cavaliers isn’t ideal — they’ve been one of the slower teams in the league to start the season — but his salary is just way off.
Value
Rodney Hood is going to be an important part of the Blazers’ rotation this season. He’s played at least 30.4 minutes in each of their first three games, and he’s coming off 34.2 FanDuel points in yesterday’s win over the Dallas Mavericks. Hood has historically been an excellent value with a comparable minute projection and salary, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.03 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
All aboard the Brandon Ingram hype train. He has absolutely dominated through his first three games as a member of the Pelicans, posting a Plus/Minus of at least +12.02 in each contest. He’s on pace to set new career-highs in usage rate, assist rate, and rebound rate, and his average of 6.3 three-point attempts per game would shatter his previous career-best of 2.4. He’s underpriced at $7,500 on DraftKings, particularly in an elite matchup vs. the Warriors.
Pascal Siakam leads all players on today’s slate with 15 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and small forwards with a comparable number of Pro Trends have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.72 on FanDuel. Those players have also commanded an average ownership of 37.1%, but Siakam is currently projected for just 9-12% ownership. That makes him an appealing pivot for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Power Forward
Stud
Power forward is the only position today that lacks a true superstar. It’s still strong on DraftKings given the multi-position eligibility for guys like Giannis, Siakam, and Ingram, but that’s not really the case on FanDuel.
That said, Domantas Sabonis stands out at the top of the pricing spectrum. He’s seeing significantly more playing time this season, and he averaged a stout 1.21 FanDuel points per minute last season. He struggled a bit in his last contest, but there’s no reason to believe he can’t improve upon those numbers today. He owns the third-highest ceiling projection at the position on FanDuel, but he’s just the sixth-most expensive option.
Value
Marquese Chriss is popping as one of the top value options on the slate, and I know at least one person who will be rostering him tonight:
John Oliver being Marquese Chriss’ biggest fan is great. pic.twitter.com/PrjKZ2Qubt
— Justin Russo (@FlyByKnite) October 15, 2019
Chriss has been one of the lone bright spots for the Warriors this season, averaging 1.1 DraftKings points per minute. He’s currently projected for 21.4 minutes at just $3,200 on DraftKings, which makes him an interesting punt play in what is expected to be the best game on the slate for fantasy purposes.
Fast Break
Draymond Green is the more conventional power forward to target for the Warriors. While he’s had a poor start to his season, it’s very reasonable to expect some progression moving forward. Green should see more opportunities in virtually every category across the board with Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson out of the lineup this season, and he already averaged a strong 1.05 FanDuel points per minute last season. Green is yet another member of the Warriors who is underpriced on FanDuel (Bargain Rating of 94%).
It will be hard to pass up on Tobias Harris if Embiid is ultimately unable to suit up. He scored 43.75 DraftKings points in his first game without Embiid this season, and he averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.8 in 13 games without Embiid last year. His $6,500 salary on DraftKings also comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Center
Studs
As usual, some of the best pure values on DraftKings can be found at the center position. Nikola Jokic, Andre Drummond, and Embiid all own Bargain Ratings of at least 93%.
Jokic has been able to build upon his success from last season through his first two games. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.66 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s coming off 66.5 DraftKings points in his last contest. He has one of the best matchups at the position vs. the Sacramento Kings, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.40. The Kings currently rank 27th in defensive efficiency and 20th in team rebound rate, and they don’t figure to improve much in those areas as the season progresses.
Drummond is a much different type of center than Jokic. He’s more of an old-school option who does the majority of his work in the paint. He struggled with foul trouble in his last contest, but that’s the only thing that has been able to stop him this season. Drummond is currently averaging 1.57 DraftKings points per minute, and he scored at 78.25 and 48.5 DraftKings points in his first two games. He should continue to benefit from the absence of Griffin: Drummond averaged 52.36 DraftKings points per game and a +6.9 Plus/Minus in seven contests without Griffin last season.
Value
Dewayne Dedmon has struggled this season, but there are reasons to believe he can improve moving forward. For starters, he played 28 minutes and posted a usage rate of 26.5% in his last contest. Those are strong marks considering his $4,100 price tag on FanDuel. He averaged 1.06 FanDuel points per minute last season, and his size will be needed tonight vs. Jokic.
Fast Break
The Clippers are currently implied for 122 points, which is the top mark on the slate. They’re a tough team to get a ton of fantasy value from — Kawhi Leonard and Lou Williams don’t really play enough minutes to feel comfortable rostering on a regular basis — but Montrezl Harrell deserves some consideration. He’s playing more minutes this season and averaged 1.21 FanDuel points per minute last year.
Myles Turner is a strong buy-low option at just $6,400 on DraftKings. He’s coming off just 29.25 DraftKings points in his last contest, but he’s played at least 38 minutes in both games to start the season. Turner averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute last season, so he can do some damage if he continues to see that much playing time.
Pictured: Warriors SG Steph Curry (30)
Photo credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
