The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
The NBA is celebrating the great Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. with a full day of basketball. FanDuel features an 11-game main slate starting at 5 p.m. ET, while DraftKings features a six-game afternoon slate at 5 p.m. ET and a five-game main slate at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games on DraftKings, scoring at least 45.5 DraftKings points in each contest. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 36.3% in each of his past two games, and those represent two of his top-three marks this season. That doesn’t really come as a surprise considering the injury to CJ McCollum. Lillard has increased his usage rate by a team-best +4.5% with McCollum off the court, resulting in an average of 1.28 DraftKings points per minute.
He’s in a fantastic spot today vs. the Warriors, who rank 20th in defensive efficiency. The Blazers are currently implied for 114.25 points, which represents a solid increase from their season average (111.5). Lillard also leads all PGs with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings.
Value
Sticking with the Blazers, Anfernee Simons is criminally underpriced at $3,700 on FanDuel. He didn’t exactly dominate with McCollum out of the lineup in his last game, scoring just 17.1 FanDuel points, but he did play a whopping 35.2 minutes. He’s currently projected for 34.6 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.00 (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
Lonzo Ball has been an absolute monster recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +15.97 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s logged huge minutes during that span, playing at least 36.9 in six of his past seven games, and he’s increased his fantasy production to 1.06 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He has a great matchup vs. the Grizzlies, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.71, and he would be tough to avoid if Jrue Holiday is unable to suit up. Holiday is currently questionable, so make sure to monitor his status using the new Labs NBA Insider tool.
Ricky Rubio represents one of the best pure values of the day on FanDuel, where his $6,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. Rubio has been fantastic when on the court this season, averaging 1.09 FanDuel points per minute, and he’s logged at least 34.3 minutes in six straight games. He disappointed in his last outing, but he scored 65.1 FanDuel points just two games ago. He has a massive ceiling for his price tag.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is the priciest option at the SG position, but he’s been in a bit of a funk recently. He’s shot just 33.6% from the field and 27.0% from 3-point range over his past six contests, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in four of them. There’s no reason to expect his shooting struggles to continue, so he should bounce back moving forward.
That said, that may not happen today vs. the Thunder. OKC is decent defensively, and the Thunder also play at one of the slowest paces in the league. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.79 for Harden on DraftKings.
Harden also has to deal with the #RevengeGame narrative for Russell Westbrook, which could work against him. Westbrook posted a usage rate of 45.9% the last two times these team played, which unsurprisingly led to a poor fantasy night from Harden.
Value
Simons got the majority of the attention among the Blazers’ value options in their last game, but Gary Trent Jr. stole the show. He scored 48.25 DraftKings points at just $3,000 vs. the Thunder, and he checked in with average ownership of just 2.3%.
I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance today, but he’s simply too cheap at $3,200. He’s currently projected for 31.1 minutes, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.39.
Fast Break
Donovan Mitchell has been priced down to just $6,500 on FanDuel, which represents a decrease of $1,800 over the past month. It results in a Bargain Rating of 97%, and Mitchell has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.40 with a comparable price tag. His matchup vs. the Pacers isn’t ideal — they rank seventh in defensive efficiency and 24th in pace — but Mitchell’s 14 Pro Trends are still tied for the most at the position.
D’Angelo Russell has been balling recently. He’s coming off 53.5 DraftKings points in his last game, and that was in a tough matchup vs. the Magic. He’s increased his production to 1.30 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s in a much friendlier spot today vs. the Blazers. Draymond Green will return to the lineup, which does cap his upside a bit, but he’s still underpriced across the industry.
Small Forward
Stud
It’s tough to justify paying all the way up at SF today. Giannis Antetokounmpo remains the most dominant player in fantasy, but he’s just not playing enough minutes at the moment. He’s currently projected for just 28.5 in our NBA Models, and even Giannis has a hard time hitting his ceiling in such limited playing time. The Bucks are currently favored by 14.5 points vs. the Bulls, so this could be another game where he spends more time on the sidelines than the court.
LeBron James has been priced up aggressively recently, but his stock takes a hit with the return of Anthony Davis. He also has a tough matchup vs. the Celtics, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.39 on FanDuel.
With that in mind, it’s definitely reasonable to spend down at the position for someone like Will Barton. He’s priced at just $6,600 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%, but he has the potential to provide stud-like production for the shorthanded Nuggets. Jamal Murray, Gary Harris and Paul Millsap have all missed each of the past two games for the Nuggets, and all three could be out once again. Barton has seen usage bump of +4.3% with those players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.03 FanDuel points per minute.
Value
Danilo Gallinari got the night off during the Thunder’s last game, but he’s expected to be back in the lineup tonight. He’s been red-hot when on the court recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.41 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s increased his production to 1.07 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He has the potential for a few additional minutes tonight with Abdel Nader and Terrance Ferguson out of the lineup, and the Thunder are in one of the biggest pace-up spots of the day vs. the Rockets.
Fast Break
Joe Ingles had a quiet start to his season, but he’s started to turn things around. He’s averaged 1.00 DraftKings point per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 34.6 minutes vs. the Pacers. That makes him an appealing target at $5,300 on DraftKings.
If the Pelicans are shorthanded again today, Brandon Ingram would become one of the top studs on the slate. He’s played at least 40.5 minutes in each of his past two games, and he’s averaged 1.22 FanDuel points per minute this season. Holiday, Derrick Favors and Jahlil Okafor are all currently listed as questionable, so this is a situation worth monitoring.
Power Forward
Stud
It’s time to buy low on Domantas Sabonis. He’s been priced down to just $7,900 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%, and that represents a decrease of $1,000 over the past two weeks. Sabonis has been productive over that time frame, so I’m not exactly sure why his price has dropped so severely.
His matchup vs. the Jazz is tough, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.11, but this is simply too cheap for Sabonis. He’s crushed with a comparable price tag this season, averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.96.
Value
Nerlens Noel isn’t playing a ton of minutes for the Thunder, but he has certainly made the most of them recently. He’s increased his production to a ridiculous 1.45 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, thanks in part to his ability to pile up blocks and steals. He’s scored at least 29.2 FanDuel points in each of his past two games, and he’s been surprisingly consistent for someone playing such few minutes. He stands out at just $4,000 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 95%.
Fast Break
Aaron Gordon is coming off a poor performance in his last contest, but there’s no reason to lose faith in him yet. He’s actually increased his fantasy production over the past month, and he did play 35.4 minutes in his last game. He’s priced at a discount at $5,500 on FanDuel in a plus matchup vs. the Hornets.
LaMarcus Aldridge has taken a backseat to DeMar DeRozan recently, but he’s still scored at least 36.5 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. He’s an appealing target on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 88%.
Center
Stud
Hassan Whiteside is a borderline must-play today on DraftKings. He checks literally every box. He’s been playing extremely well recently, averaging 1.37 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s seeing plenty of playing time. He also has an elite matchup vs. the Warriors, who have been an absolute disaster against centers this season. Whiteside owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.53, which is one of the top marks at the position.
That said, his salary is the biggest thing he has going for him at the moment. He’s priced at just $7,500, and Whiteside has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.07 with a comparable salary this season. Overall, he owns the second-highest ceiling projection on the DraftKings main slate, yet he’s priced as just the 14th-most expensive option. He is expected to be chalky, but I’m locking him in and looking to diversify elsewhere.
Value
On the other side of that matchup, Willie Cauley-Stein stands out in the value tier. The Blazers have actually been worse against opposing centers than the Warriors this season, giving WCS an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.25 on DraftKings. His playing time has fluctuated a bit this season, but he should see a solid handful of minutes to combat the size of Whiteside. He’s currently projected for 26.0 in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Fast Break
Jonas Valanciunas stands out as a strong option on FanDuel, where his $6,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.38 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which is the third-highest mark at the position. He’s also coming off 32.5 minutes in his last game, which is more than he usual plays. If he’s going to see that many minutes moving forward, he’s not going to be priced at $6,500 much longer.
Nikola Jokic could fly a bit under-the-radar tonight despite the Nuggets’ current injury situation. He would obviously benefit from the team being shorthanded — he’s increased his usage rate by +4.4% with Harris, Murray and Millsap off the court — and his 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on FanDuel.
Photo credit: Rocky Widner-NBAE via Getty Images
Pictured above: Blazers C Hassan Whiteside (21)
