The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Ben Simmons has been an awesome value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +10.68 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 92% over the past month on FanDuel, yet his salary has actually decreased by $400 over that time frame. His current $8,200 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 73%.
He should continue to benefit from the absence of Joel Embiid. He’s carried a massive workload recently, logging at least 37 minutes in eight of his past nine games, and no one on today’s slate is projected for more than his 38.3 minutes in our NBA Models.
Value
Derrick Rose has one of the best matchups on the slate vs. the New Orleans Pelicans. They rank seventh in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency, and Rose owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.01 on DraftKings.
He’s also carried a larger workload recently. He’s played at least 28.2 minutes in each of his past five games, and he’s increased his production to 1.23 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Rose has also increased his usage rate by a team-high 1.6% with Blake Griffin off the court this season, and Griffin may miss the rest of the year after undergoing knee surgery.
Fast Break
De’Aaron Fox has averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark among today’s PGs. He’s coming off 56.25 DraftKings points in his last contest, so he has significant upside at just $7,400. His matchup vs. the Magic isn’t ideal, but that should result in reduced ownership.
Terry Rozier is coming off one of his worst games of the season, scoring just 9.4 FanDuel points over 28.2 minutes vs. the Phoenix Suns. That makes him an interesting buy-low target today vs. the Blazers. It’s a strong matchup, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.59, and his $6,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%.
The Pelicans are going to be an important team to monitor today. Jrue Holiday is doubtful with an elbow injury, while J.J. Redick has already been ruled out with a hamstring injury. Brandon Ingram and Derrick Favors have also been listed as questionable, so they have the potential to be very shorthanded.
Lonzo Ball should be asked to carry a larger workload than usual in that situation. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.06 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +12.36 over his past 10 games. He’s a steal at $6,300 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 94%.
Shooting Guard
Stud
CJ McCollum isn’t exactly priced like a stud at $6,100 on DraftKings, but he could provide stud-like production. He owns a Bargain Rating of 87%, and McCollum has historically posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.52 with a comparable price tag (per the Trends tool).
He has a nice matchup today vs. the Charlotte Hornets. They rank just 27th in defensive efficiency, and the Blazers’ implied team total of 112.5 ranks fourth on the slate.
Value
The Pistons have a pair of intriguing value options at the SG position. Bruce Brown stands out on FanDuel, where his $4,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s increased his production to an average of 0.97 FanDuel points per minute, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.99 over his past 10 games. His matchup vs. the Pelicans also results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.03.
Brown is much more expensive on DraftKings, but Svi Mykhailiuk is an appealing punt play at $3,200. He’s played at least 27.8 minutes in each of his past seven games, and he’s currently projected for 29.4 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with a comparable price tag and minutes projection have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.52 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Devonte’ Graham stands out as an elite option on FanDuel at just $6,600. His price has decreased by $1,400 over the past month, and his current price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. His 13 Pro Trends rank third at the position, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.56.
Zach LaVine has been on a tear recently, scoring at least 45.8 FanDuel points in each of his past five games. He has a tough matchup today vs. the Celtics, but he still leads the position with 15 Pro Trends.
Small Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is currently questionable to suit up for the Lakers, and his absence would make LeBron James an elite option. James scored 64.7 FanDuel points with Davis out of the lineup in his last game, and he’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +5.4% with Davis off the court this season.
He’s in an interesting spot today vs. the Cavaliers. Of course, this is a potential #RevengeGame for James, but the problem is the Cavs just aren’t very good. The Lakers are currently favored by 14 points, which makes this a potential blowout spot. It’s a great spot if they can keep this game competitive — the Cavs rank just 29th in defensive efficiency — but there’s no guarantee that will happen.
Value
Miles Bridges’ playing time has been all over the place this season, but he appears to be one of the preferred options for the Hornets at the moment. He’s logged at least 32.6 minutes in each of his past five games, and he’s increased his fantasy production to 0.86 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. With that in mind, it’s not surprising that he’s scored at least 32.4 FanDuel points in each of those contests. He’s significantly underpriced at just $5,000 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Josh Okogie is very reasonably priced at $3,300 on DraftKings for today’s matchup vs. the Thunder. He’s coming off 30.4 minutes of playing time in his last contest, and he responded with 40.25 DraftKings points. His workload may have been a little inflated because the Timberwolves lost that contest by 30 points, but he should still see a healthy amount of playing time with Karl-Anthony Towns out of the lineup.
Jaylen Brown has struggled recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past three games on FanDuel. That said, he’s a nice bounceback target today vs. the Bulls. The Celtics’ implied team total ranks third on the slate, and Brown has seen a price decrease of $1,000 over his past three games.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is an appealing option today if he’s able to suit up, particularly on DraftKings at $9,400. It results in a Bargain Rating of 91%, which makes him one of the better pure values on the slate. He scored at least 64.75 DraftKings points in the two games prior to getting hurt.
If he’s out of the lineup, Kyle Kuzma should be asked to carry a larger workload. He’s scored at least 37.5 DraftKings points in back-to-back games without Davis, and he’s increased his production to 1.00 DraftKings point per minute over the past month. He would be a particularly strong target on FanDuel, where his $4,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
Nemanja Bjelica has scored at least 34.9 FanDuel points in back-to-back games, yet he remains very affordable at just $4,900. He’s currently projected for 33.2 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute this season. Bjelica has historically excelled with a comparable salary and minutes projection, averaging a Plus/Minus of +3.10.
Fast Break
Al Horford is another strong value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 94%, and he should continue to benefit from the absence of Embiid. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.6 in nine games without Embiid this season, despite his average salary at $600 higher than it is for today’s contest. That includes posting a Plus/Minus of at least +10.53 in each of his past two games.
It’s harder to find values at the PF position on DraftKings, but Carmelo Anthony stands out at $5,400. He has an excellent matchup vs. the Hornets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.12, and he was priced at $6,600 just two games ago.
Center
Stud
Hassan Whiteside missed the Blazers’ last game with an injury, but he’s probable to return to the lineup tonight. As long as he isn’t on some sort of minutes restriction, he looks like an amazing value at $8,200 on DraftKings. He was priced at over $9,000 just last week, and his current price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Whiteside has been dominant when on the floor recently. He’s averaged 1.42 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the second-highest mark at the position. Whiteside has always been dominant on a per-minute basis, and his playing time has been much more consistent with the Blazers than it was with the Heat.
He’s in a tremendous spot today vs. the Hornets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.46.
Value
On the other side of that matchup, Cody Zeller stands out as an awesome value across the industry. He hasn’t been playing a ton of minutes recently, but he did get 29.6 minutes in his last contest. Zeller has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s too cheap if he’s going to continue to play that much moving forward. The Blazers have also been one of the best matchups for centers this season, giving Zeller an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.25 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Gorgui Dieng will likely draw another start for the injured Towns, which makes him an excellent target at $4,500 on FanDuel. His current price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he’s averaged 1.22 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Enes Kanter has been a one-man wrecking crew recently. He’s averaged 1.44 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +9.19 over his past 10 games. He owns a Plus/Minus of +4.16 vs. the Chicago Bulls, which gives him one of the best matchups at the position.
Pictured: Blazers C Hassan Whiteside (21)
Photo credit: Rocky Widner-NBAE via Getty Images
