The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a two-game slate starting at 6:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The Raptors have shown a lot of heart over their past two games. They’ve battled back from a 2-0 series hole to tie the series at 2-2, and the play of Kyle Lowry has been vital to their success. He’s been excellent from a fantasy perspective as well, scoring at least 54.0 DraftKings points in both contests.
Lowry has carried a massive workload in those games, and he remains priced down at just $8,200 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 95%, and Lowry has averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.50 with a comparable salary this season (per the Trends tool).
Value
Lou Williams looks like one of the best values at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 95%. He’s been priced down to just $5,100, which is very low considering his upside. He’s averaged 1.06 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s coming off 29.4 minutes in his last game. The Clippers are also implied for 114.5 points, which is the top mark on today’s slate by nearly 10 points.
Fast Break
Kemba Walker was quiet in his last game. He took just nine shots from the field over 40.8 minutes, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance today. He posted at least 15 shots attempts in each of the previous two contests, so his usage rate should be significantly higher on today’s slate. He’s averaged 1.11 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s currently projected for 40.0 minutes in our NBA Models.
Patrick Beverley is dirt-cheap at $3,700 on DraftKings, and he’s played a limited number of minutes recently. That said, he has increased his production to 0.96 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to potentially return value.
Shooting Guard
Stud
No one in basketball is carrying a larger workload than Fred VanVleet at the moment. Not only is he playing a ton of minutes, but he’s logged at least 40.8 in each of his past three games. He’s also putting up a ridiculous amount of shots. He’s attempted at least 19 shots in all three of those contests, and the only thing that has kept him from bigger fantasy performances is below-average shooting numbers. He’s shot just 32.9% from the field in this series against the Celtics, which is nearly 10 percentage points lower than his mark during the regular season. He has huge upside at his current salary if a few more shots fall for him in today’s contest.
Value
Marcus Smart is way too cheap at $5,700 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 96%. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of the first four games of this series despite the fact he’s shot just 6-of-23 from the field over his past two contests. He’s currently projected for 39.0 minutes in our NBA Models, and Smart has averaged 0.91 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Fast Break
Speaking of poor shooting performances, it’s hard to be worse in that department than Jaylen Brown was in his last game. He missed his first nine 3-point attempts in that contest and ultimately finished with just 24.0 DraftKings points. The Raptors are excellent defensively, but it’s hard to see Brown being that bad again in today’s contest. He scored at least 38.5 DraftKings points his two previous games, which makes him a nice bounce-back target in Game 5.
Paul George has had his struggles during the postseason, but he’s starting to round into form. He’s shot 44.9% from the field and 37.5% from 3-point range over his past four games, both of which represent massive improvements over his first four games. PG13 has historically been an efficient shooter, so I see no reason why that production can’t continue moving forward. He’s an excellent value today on FanDuel, where his $7,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.
Small Forward
Stud
It turns out Kawhi Leonard is human after all. He went on a tear to start the postseason, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first six games, but he’s now posted a negative Plus/Minus in two straight games against the Nuggets. The first was excusable — he only played 32 minutes in a blowout victory — but the second was simply a poor performance. He shot just 4-of-17 from the field after shooting 56.2% during his first seven playoff contests.
Should you be worried about that poor performance? Absolutely not! Kawhi is arguably the best player in the league, so there’s no reason to expect him to struggle again today. The Nuggets’ defense was also torched by the Jazz in the first round, so they represent a solid matchup.
Value
OG Anunoby has been one of the safest options during the postseason. He posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first seven games on DraftKings before coming up just short in his last contest. He should continue to carry a huge workload for the Raptors — he’s currently projected for 39.2 minutes in our NBA Models — which makes him a nice option at just $5,700. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.26.
Fast Break
Pascal Siakam has struggled with his shot during the playoffs, particularly from 3-point range. He went just 2-of-13 from behind the arc in Game 4, but that didn’t stop him from accumulating 39.2 FanDuel points. He logged a ridiculous 45.6 minutes in that contest, and he could be looking at a similar workload today. He’s averaged 1.15 FanDuel points per minute this season, which makes him very appealing at $8,400.
Jerami Grant’s workload has fluctuated a bit recently, but he did play more than 40 minutes in the Game 2 win. His per-minute production is also down a bit during the playoffs, but it’s hard to ignore someone with that much playing time potential at just $5,000 on FanDuel. His Bargain Rating of 83% is the top mark at the position.
Power Forward
Stud
The Celtics have dropped each of the past two games, so this is an absolutely huge contest. The winner of Game 5 in a tied series wins the series at nearly an 85% clip, and the winner of this series will be favored to represent the East in the Finals barring a miracle comeback from the Bucks.
With that in mind, expect Jayson Tatum to try to put the team on his back. He leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and he’s also one of the best pure values at the position. His Bargain Rating of 71% doesn’t jump off the page, but it’s still the third-highest mark among PFs.
Value
Paul Millsap hasn’t been playing a ton of minutes recently, but he still has the potential to return value at his current salary. He’s been priced down across the industry, and he’s averaged a stout 1.02 DraftKings points per minute this season. The Clippers are also a bit more vulnerable on the interior then they are on the perimeter.
Fast Break
Daniel Theis has posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in four of his past five games, and he posted a Plus/Minus of -0.15 in the lone exception. That makes him a pretty steady producer at a weak position. He also played fewer minutes in his last game than usual, so he’s an interesting buy-low target today.
Marcus Morris has become a vital piece of the Clippers rotation after being acquired from the Knicks before the trade deadline. He’s been a better real-life player than fantasy player, but he still has plenty of upside at his current price tag. He’s averaged 0.85 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 31.6 minutes in our NBA Models.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic is the only true stud center option on today’s slate, but you’ll need to monitor his status before locking him into your lineup. He was added to the injury report and is currently considered questionable for today’s contest. It seems unlikely that he’ll actually sit out, but make sure to utilize the Labs Insiders tool for any updates.
Jokic is coming off his best performance of the playoffs in his last outing, scoring 56.6 FanDuel points. He remains priced down at just $9,400 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 86%, and he leads all players on FanDuel with 13 Pro Trends. He could also see a bit lower ownership than usual given his current questionable designation, which makes him an awesome target for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
If Jokic is ruled out, expect Mason Plumlee to become the chalk option at center. He’s productive when he receives the opportunity to play given his average of 1.20 FanDuel points per minute, and he has the potential to carry a much larger workload than usual if Jokic is out of the lineup. He also has a chance to return value even if Jokic is active: He scored 26.5 FanDuel points over just 13.6 minutes.
Fast Break
Robert Williams is another potential source of value. He’s seen a decent handful of minutes in this series, and he’s averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute this year. Overall, he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games on DraftKings.
Ivica Zubac and Montrezl Harrell are both locked into a timeshare, but Zubac has gotten the better of that split recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games, and his matchup against the Nuggets results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.86.
