NBA DFS Breakdown (Friday, May 28): Kawhi Leonard & Paul George Are Underpriced on DraftKings

Friday features a three-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Point Guard

Stud

The Mavericks have jumped out to a 2-0 series lead over the Clippers, and now the series heads back to Dallas. That puts them in the driver’s seat.

Luka Doncic has been the Mavs’ driving force all season, and he’s elevated his game from a fantasy perspective during the postseason. He’s scored at least 56.9 FanDuel points in each of his past two games, and he posted a usage rate of 47.6% in his last contest.

Doncic stands out as one of the best values at the position on FanDuel, where his $10,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 80%. He also leads the position with 11 Pro Trends.

Value

Derrick Rose has been busy for the Knicks to start the playoffs. He’s logged at least 37.7 minutes in each of his past two games, and he’s responded with at least 31.5 FanDuel points in both contests. Rose also started the second half of Game 2, with head coach Tom Thibodeau choosing to remove Elfrid Payton from the rotation. Rose has averaged 1.02 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he should continue to find success with increased playing time.

Fast Break

Trae Young endured some harsh treatment from the fans in New York over the first two games of that series, so he should be happy to be headed back to Atlanta. That said, Young did play well in New York, averaging 49.0 DraftKings points per game. He’s one of the better stud targets on the position on DraftKings at $8,600.

Serge Ibaka is currently questionable for the Clippers, and he didn’t play in the second half of Game 2 vs. the Mavericks. His absence led to a larger workload for Reggie Jackson, who finished with more than 30 minutes of playing time.

He could see more minutes than expected if Ibaka is ruled out or if head coach Tyronn Lue chooses to go small once again in Game 3. He’s an elite value at just $3,900 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 99%.

Shooting Guard

Stud

The Clippers stand out as one of the strongest teams to target on today’s slate.

They have some appealing values like Jackson, but the best value comes from their top two players. That includes Paul George at shooting guard, who remains massively underpriced at $8,100 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 95%, and George racked up 55.0 DraftKings points in Game 2 vs. the Mavericks. This is a must-win spot for the Clippers — no team in NBA history has ever overcome a 3-0 series deficit — so expect them to lean on George heavily in this contest.

Value

The Celtics will also be looking to avoid an 0-3 deficit in their series against the Nets, but they may not have Kemba Walker available. He’s questionable with a knee injury, and his absence would open up some value with the rest of the roster. Jaylen Brown is already out of the lineup, so the Celtics’ backcourt would be pretty thin if Walker were ruled out.

Marcus Smart is already playing plenty of minutes for the Celtics, but he could see some additional offensive responsibilities in that situation. He’s increased his usage rate by +3.8% with Walker and Brown off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.88 FanDuel points per minute.

Fast Break

Tim Hardaway Jr. was massive for the Mavericks in Game 2, finishing with 28 points while shooting 6-8 from 3-point range. Hardaway is probably due for some shooting regression moving forward, but the fact that his minutes are up is encouraging. He’s averaged 0.85 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s coming off 38.2 minutes in his last game. That makes him a nice option at $5,700.

I certainly wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to roster James Harden on DraftKings. He’s cheaper than he’s been virtually all season at just $10,300, and Harden has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.24 with a comparable price tag (per the Trends tool). The Nets’ implied team total of 117.75 points is also the top mark on the slate.

Small Forward

Stud

Kawhi Leonard should garner massive ownership on DraftKings, but anything less than 100% is a mistake. His $8,500 price tag is an absolute joke. It results in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and Leonard has scored at least 56.0 DraftKings points in each of his past two games. Just lock him in and move on.

Value

Evan Fournier is another member of the Celtics who should be asked to carry a larger offensive workload if Walker is ruled out.

He’s struggled to begin the postseason, but he’s currently projected for 36.5 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, making him one of the best values of the day at just $5,500 on FanDuel.

Fast Break

Dorian Finney-Smith is another nice potential source of value on FanDuel. He’s not the same producer as Fournier on a per-minute basis, but he’s projected for 36.7 minutes at just $4,400. That’s a ton of playing time for a minimal price tag, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.77.

De’Andre Hunter was one of the Hawks’ most important players at the start of the season, but injuries limited him to just 23 games during the regular season. That said, he did play 32 minutes in Game 2, which bodes well for his fantasy prospects moving forward. He’s averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he finished with 26.5 DraftKings points in his last game.

Power Forward

Stud

Kevin Durant stands out as the best target among the Nets’ stud trio, particularly on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 97%.

He’s scored at least 52.5 DraftKings points in each of his past two games despite playing just 29.2 minutes in Game 2. He leads the team with a 34.5% usage rate during the playoffs, and he also leads the team in rebounds and blocked shots per game. That gives him excellent upside at just $9,700.

Value

Marcus Morris has struggled to start the postseason, which has caused his price tag to dip to just $4,400 on FanDuel. That makes him a nice buy-low target in tonight’s matchup. He’s currently projected for 30.2 minutes in our NBA Models, and Morris has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.97 with a comparable salary. He would also be a potential beneficiary if Ibaka is ruled out for tonight’s contest.

Fast Break

Maxi Kleber is currently listed as questionable for the Mavericks, but he’s suited up the past two games despite questionable designations. He should be in the lineup on Friday, and he’s logged at least 34.2 minutes in each of his past two games. Kleber has easily returned value on DraftKings in those contests, and his $3,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.

Kristaps Porzingis has seen a price increase for Game 3, but he still represents one of the best buy-low targets on FanDuel. His price tag has decreased by -$1,900 over his past 10 games, and he’s coming off 39.8 FanDuel points over just 32 minutes in his last contest. Porzingis has averaged 1.20 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he has the potential to destroy this price tag.

Center

Stud

Center is the weakest position to pay up for on Friday.

Clint Capela is the closest thing to a stud target, but his production has been far from stud-like recently. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in 12 of his past 13 games on DraftKings, and he’s scored 30.5 DraftKings points or fewer in his first two postseason games vs. the Knicks. That said, he has logged at least 34.5 minutes in both contests, which does give him some bounce-back appeal in Game 3.

Capela is typically an elite producer on a per-minute basis — he’s averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute this season — so his poor production against the Knicks feels like an outlier. His salary has also decreased to $7,700 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%.

Value

Nicolas Claxton has the potential to be one of the best value plays on the entire slate. He’s priced at just $3,100 on DraftKings, and he’s currently projected for 22.1 minutes in our NBA Models. Claxton has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s capable of doing damage with minimal playing time.

Fast Break

Robert Williams has had two wildly different outcomes in his two playoff games vs. the Nets. He exploded for 53.3 FanDuel points in Game 1, but he slumped to just 15.7 FanDuel points in Game 2.

His production in Game 1 was definitely a bit fluky — he finished with an unsustainable nine blocked shots — but he should still be able to improve upon his production from Game 2. He’s averaged a stout 1.37 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s projected for 22.5 minutes in our NBA Models.

Taj Gibson and Tom Thibodeau go together like lamb and tuna fish. Or spaghetti and meatballs, if you’re more comfortable with that analogy. Thibs leaned on Gibson for more than 30 minutes in Game 2, and he’s posted at least 23.75 DraftKings points in both playoff games. He’s another interesting punt play at just $3,800.

Photo Credit: Juan Ocampo/NBAE via Getty Images.
Pictured: Paul George (left) and Kawhi Leonard (right).