NBA DFS Breakdown (Monday, June 7): James Harden’s Injury Creates Value With Nets

Monday features a two-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Point Guard

Stud

The Nets secured a victory in Game 1 of their series against the Bucks, but they did sustain a loss in that contest. James Harden suffered a hamstring injury, and he has already been ruled out for Game 2.

That’s going to create some additional value with the rest of the roster on Monday.

Kyrie Irving should be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s increased his usage rate to 31.3% with Harden off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.32 DraftKings points per minute. He logged nearly 44.6 minutes in Game 1, which gives him immense upside at just $9,200 on DraftKings.

Value

Mike James is another player who should benefit from the absence of Harden.

He’s currently projected for 28.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which is a ton of playing time for someone who costs just $3,300. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.26 on DraftKings, per the Trends tool. James has also averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s more productive than the typical player in this price range. He’s a lock on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 99%, and he’s a solid value on FanDuel, as well.

Fast Break

The Suns will start their second-round series against the Nuggets, and Chris Paul is an interesting buy-low target on DraftKings. He struggled in his first-round series vs. the Lakers, which caused his price to drop to just $6,500. That said, the Nuggets represent a much easier matchup, so Paul should see a boost in production. He’s averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he should be able to pay off his current price tag.

Jrue Holiday has been a nice source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.24 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He finished with just 36.75 DraftKings points in Game 1 vs. the Nets, but he did post his highest usage rate of the playoffs. He shot just 7-of-19 from the field and 2-of-7 from 3-point range in that contest, so he has room for improvement in Game 2.

Shooting Guard

Stud

Devin Booker was fantastic in the first round of the playoffs. He was instrumental in the Suns’ victory over the Lakers in Game 6, finishing with 47 points and 64.7 FanDuel points in the series-clinching win. He’s the easy top choice at shooting guard on FanDuel. He leads the position with seven Pro Trends, and he also owns the second-highest Bargain Rating amongst today’s shooting guards.

Value

Monte Morris is back. His minutes have been limited since returning to the lineup from injury, but the Nuggets let him loose in the final two games of their series vs. the Blazers. He played at least 32.9 minutes in both contests, and he racked up at least 43.25 DraftKings points in each. His price has come up considerably over that time frame, but his $5,400 salary on DraftKings still comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.

Fast Break

Austin Rivers is another potential value option for the Nuggets. They picked him up essentially off the scrap heap, but he’s given them some great minutes recently with Jamal Murray out of the lineup. He’s another solid value option on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98%.

Bryn Forbes is going to be a huge X-factor for the Bucks in their series against the Nets. He’s going to have the chance to play more minutes with Donte DiVincenzo out, which gives him the chance to provide fantasy value on nights when his shot is falling. He was an elite 3-point shooter during the regular season, but he went just 1-of-5 from behind the arc in Game 1. He should have a better performance in Game 2, and he’s a nice buy-low target on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 82%.

Small Forward

Stud

Kevin Durant is unbelievable. He missed all of last year and much of this season with injuries, but he continues to provide nearly an unprecedented combination of volume and efficiency as a scorer. He’s averaged 32.0 points per game to start the postseason while shooting 53.3% from the field, 46.9% from 3-point range, and 92.2% from the free-throw line.

He’ll have a chance to command even more volume with Harden out of the lineup. He posted a usage rate of 32.4% in Game 1 vs. the Bucks, which is in line with his average usage rate of 32.0% with Harden off the court this season. He played more than 40 minutes in that contest, and he’s averaged 1.49 DraftKings points per minute in that situation. Overall, he’s one of the strongest plays on the slate.

Value

Bruce Brown is another excellent value option for the Nets on DraftKings. He’s not expected to see a ton of minutes — he’s currently projected for 25.7 in our NBA Models — but Brown is capable of racking up fantasy points in limited playing time. He’s averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is an elite mark for his price tag.

Fast Break

Brown is not available at small forward on FanDuel, so paying up at both spots makes sense. Durant is the top option, but Khris Middleton is also an elite option at the position. He’s one of the best pure values among the high-priced options on today’s slate, with his $7,700 salary resulting in a Bargain Rating of 78%. He didn’t fare well in Game 1 vs. the Nets, but he shot just 6-of-23 from the field. He’s a major positive regression candidate on Monday.

Durant and Middleton will likely command most of the ownership at the position, which means Michael Porter Jr. could fly a bit under the radar. The Nuggets are in the toughest spot of the day — their implied team total of 108.25 is the lowest mark on the slate by a sizable margin — but MPJ has scored at least 42.75 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. That would represent excellent value at just $7,100.

Power Forward

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo is the most expensive player on today’s slate, and he remains one of the best producers in fantasy.

He’s averaged 1.69 DraftKings points per minute this season, and his playing time is unsurprisingly up during the playoffs. He’s still not playing as much as most people would like, but he’s projected for 38.2 minutes on today’s slate. There are some strong value options available on Monday, so it should be pretty easy to pair Giannis with another stud or two in your lineups.

Value

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Blake Griffin has been a massive addition for the Nets. He looked cooked during his time with the Pistons, but playing with a winning squad in Brooklyn has rejuvenated the former superstar. He saw more than 35 minutes in Game 1 vs. the Bucks, and he stuffed the stat sheet with 18 points, 14 rebounds, three assists, and two steals. He’s another elite value on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98%.

Fast Break

Jae Crowder is coming off a big performance in Game 6 vs. the Lakers. He was red-hot from behind the 3-point line, making 6-of-9 shots, and he finished with at least 35.6 DraftKings points for the second time in three games. He’s reasonably priced across the industry.

P.J. Tucker is priced basically at the minimum on DraftKings, but he’s projected for 30.2 minutes in our NBA Models. Tucker is not worth considering in tournaments given his paltry per-minute production, but he should be able to return value for cash games.

Center

Stud

There are a ton of studs to consider on today’s slate, but don’t forget about Nikola Jokic.

He’s coming off a slightly disappointing performance in his last game, but that doesn’t tell the full story. Jokic finished with just six points in the first half of that contest, but he racked up 30 in the second half. His matchup against the Suns is not as friendly as his first-round matchup against the Blazers, but he leads the position with 10 Pro Trends on DraftKings and 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel.

Value

Brook Lopez has had an excellent start to the postseason for the Bucks, and he should be able to take advantage of this matchup vs. the Nets. His opponent Plus/Minus of +1.66 is the top mark at the position on DraftKings, and his $4,900 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.

Fast Break

Deandre Ayton is going to be instrumental for the Suns in their series against the Nuggets. He’s going to be given the unenviable task of slowing down Jokic, which means he should see a ton of playing time. His per-minute production has been down recently, but he has the potential to return value through sheer volume on Monday.

Photo Credit: Elsa/Getty Images.
Pictured (left to right): Joe Harris, Kevin Durant, Nic Claxton, and Kyrie Irving.