Friday features the final game of the NBA play-in tournament between the Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies starting at 9 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game format, check out my primers on DraftKings or FanDuel before building your lineups.
Game Overview
The final game of the play-in tournament should be a good one. The Warriors are currently listed as 4.5-point home favorites, while the total on this game sits at 221.5 points. That said, the public isn’t giving the Grizzlies much of a chance, with the Warriors receiving 88% of the spread bets and 92% of the spread dollars in this contest.
Both of these teams also made their biggest impact defensively this season. The Warriors ranked fifth in the defensive efficiency for the year, while the Grizzlies ranked sixth. They were much more mediocre offensively: The Grizzlies finished 15th in offensive efficiency while the Warriors were 19th.
However, this game should be played at a fast pace. Both of these teams rank in the top eight in that department, with the Warriors’ mark of 104.4 ranking tied for second. That means this game could have the potential to be a bit higher scoring than expected.
Stylistically, this match appears to favor the Warriors. They have done a decent job at defending the rim this season. They allow the sixth-lowest percentage of opponent shots in that area and the seventh-lowest opponent field goal percentage at the rim.
The Grizzlies are an interior-based squad, leading the league in points per game in the paint by a wide margin. The main reason the Grizzlies were able to advance past the Spurs was that Jonas Valanciunas had a field day on the interior, and I don’t see him having the same level of success vs. the Warriors.
On the other side, we know how the Warriors like to score points. They shoot the ball from the perimeter thanks to the prowess of Stephen Curry. This season, 40.5% of their field goal attempts came from 3-point range, which was the sixth-highest mark in the league. The Grizzlies were subpar in terms of 3-point defense in both frequency and accuracy, so this is a good matchup for them on paper.
Studs
Curry stands out as the top stud in this matchup, which is not all that surprising: He’s arguably the top stud every time he takes the court. The Lakers did a great job of getting the ball out of his hands on Wednesday, but he still finished with 37 points thanks to some hyper-efficient shooting numbers. He’s been one of the best investments in fantasy recently, and I see no reason why that won’t continue vs. the Grizzlies.
Curry leads all players in our NBA Models in terms of median projection, ceiling projection, projected Plus/Minus, and points/dollar projection.
Valanciunas is next up on the pricing spectrum, and he scares me a bit. He’s coming off a monster game vs. the Spurs, finishing with 60.75 DraftKings points over 37.6 minutes, and he fared well two games ago against the Warriors as well. He’s actually crushed the Warriors in general this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.61 in three matchups (per the Trends tool).
Still, the Warriors are notorious for running centers off the court with the way they play offense. The Lakers only played Andre Drummond for 16.8 minutes and Montrezl Harrell for 9.8 minutes on Wednesday. Valanciunas should be able to find success when he’s on the court, but his playing time could be a bit more volatile than expected.
If you are going to play Valanciunas, you’re better off doing it on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 97%.
I’d rather go with Ja Morant for the Grizzlies, who is slightly cheaper across the industry. He’s averaged a solid 1.06 DraftKings points per minute this season, but his fantasy production was kept in check by his average of just 32.6 minutes per game during the regular season. A lack of playing time is not going to be an issue in the postseason. He led the team with 40.7 minutes on Wednesday, so I like his chances of returning value.
Morant also represents one of the best pure values on FanDuel, where his $12,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%.
Draymond Green put together arguably the most Draymond line possible in his last game: two points, nine rebounds, eight assists, three steals, three blocks, six turnovers, five personal fouls, one technical foul, and roughly 97 complaints to the officials. Add it all up, and he finished with 34.25 DraftKings points.
That was slightly disappointing for his salary, but there’s definitely room for improvement with Draymond vs. the Grizzlies. He’s never going to put up huge scoring numbers, but he did crack double-digits in that department in four straight games prior to Wednesday’s performance. If he can get back into that range on Friday, it puts him in play for a double-double or possibly even a triple-double. Those are obviously very appealing on DraftKings given the bonuses.
Midrange
Andrew Wiggins has quietly put together a solid season for the Warriors, but he remains one-dimensional for fantasy purposes. Nearly all of his value comes from scoring, which makes him tough to trust. That said, he does have a bit more upside than usual with Kelly Oubre out of the lineup. He’s increased his usage rate by +1.0% with Oubre off the court this season.
Dillon Brooks is a similar player to Wiggins, but he should have more opportunities to score the ball. He led the team with 24 points Wednesday vs. the Spurs, and his 25.1% usage rate rank second on the squad. Grayson Allen only played 4.9 minutes in his return to action, so Brooks’ role should be safe for as long as he’s limited. His Bargain Rating of 95% on DraftKings is also the best mark among players in this price range.
Jaren Jackson Jr. was a disappointment in his last game, but his fantasy stock remains on the rise. He’s been excellent since rejoining the Grizzlies’ rotation, averaging 1.21 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s played at least 30.8 minutes in back-to-back games. His playing time should only continue to increase, so I think he’s an excellent bounce-back target.
Jackson’s expanded role has killed the value for most of the Grizzlies’ reserve big men, but Kyle Anderson has maintained his workload in the starting unit. He’s playing more minutes at small forward, and the Grizzlies played a tight rotation in their last game. He played 32.2 minutes despite Valanciunas and Jackson combining for more than 68 minutes of court time, so he should continue to provide value. Anderson can do a little bit of everything on the court, resulting in an average of 1.03 DraftKings points per minute.
Kent Bazemore rounds out this price range, but he seems a bit overpriced at the moment. He was carrying a huge workload with Oubre out of the lineup during the regular season, but that role has waned as the games have become more important.
He finished with just 27.3 minutes in the final game of the regular season, and that number dropped to 24.5 during the first play-in game. Bazemore still finished with a respectable 27.0 DraftKings points vs. the Lakers, but 10 of those points came via five steals. That’s clearly unsustainable.
Fast Break
This price range is where these contests are typically won. Everyone knows the top studs are going to have good games, which is why their ownership is typically astronomical. The key is finding the right cheap players to pair with them.
Let’s break down a few options, rapid-fire style.
- Jordan Poole ($5,400 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Poole has been one of the unsung heroes for the Warriors this season. He filled in admirably when Curry missed some time earlier this year, and he’s become one of their most trusted reserves. He’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute with Oubre off the court this season, and he played nearly 26.5 minutes vs. the Lakers on Wednesday.
- Desmond Bane ($5,200 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Bane isn’t nearly the same that as Poole on a per-minute basis, but he should see a comparable workload off the bench for the Grizzlies. He finished with 24.8 minutes in their last game, making him their only reserve to play more than 11.7 minutes.
- Kevon Looney ($4,600 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel): Looney is an absolute steal at $4,600 on DraftKings. He is the Warriors’ most trusted center option, and he dominated in limited playing time vs. the Lakers on Wednesday. That game played small, so there’s a chance that this matchup vs. the Grizzlies is much better for Looney from a playing time perspective.
- De’Anthony Melton ($4,200 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Melton’s workload is far from safe, but he’s someone who could see a few more minutes than usual if the Grizzlies are forced to go small. He’s averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to return value.
- Grayson Allen ($3,600 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Allen is very intriguing at just $6,000 on FanDuel. He’s someone who was a big part of the Grizzlies’ rotation earlier this year, so his role should theoretically expand as he gets further removed from his injury. There’s no guarantee that happens tonight, but there’s no guarantee it doesn’t, either.
- Mychal Mulder ($2,200 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): You could do a lot worse than Mulder as a pure punt play on DraftKings. He played nearly 22 minutes off the bench on Wednesday, which is a lot of playing time for someone who costs just $2,200.
Pictured above: Jonas Valanciunas #17 of the Memphis Grizzlies.
Photo credit: Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images.
