The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a two-game slate starting at 6:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Goran Dragic may not be a stud in the most traditional sense, but he’s played like a stud during the postseason. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in each of his first six playoff games, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +11.03 over his past 10 games overall.
He moved into the starting lineup in place of Kendrick Nunn, which has resulted in a few additional minutes of playing time, and he’s also increased his productivity to 1.14 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He should continue to produce in this matchup vs. the Bucks, given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.14.
Value
Rajon Rondo is an interesting punt play at just $3,200 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 88%, and there is certainly an opportunity for him to carve out an important role in the Lakers’ rotation. None of their other role players have played well during the playoffs, and Rondo has plenty of big-game experience. He will probably be limited in his first game back – he’s currently projected for just 18.5 minutes in our NBA Models – but Rondo doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his minimal price tag given his average of 0.97 DraftKings points per minute.
It’s not a lock that Rondo will play today — he’s currently listed as probable — so make sure to monitor his status using the Labs Insiders tool.
Fast Break
Eric Bledsoe stands out as one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 79%. He’s been limited so far during the postseason – including sitting out Game 1 of this series entirely – but the Bucks might lean on him a bit harder in today’s contest. No team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in the NBA playoffs, so this is essentially a must-win contest for them.
It might be time to buy-low on Russell Westbrook. He’s coming off 33.8 minutes in Game 7 vs. the Thunder, so he is slowly creeping back towards a full workload. We know what Westbrook is capable of when he’s on the court – he’s averaged 1.43 DraftKings points per minute this season – so he’s definitely underpriced if he sees another boost in minutes today.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Sticking with the Rockets, this is a huge series for James Harden. Fair or not, he has developed a reputation for being someone who does not come through in the playoffs. He did nothing to help his reputation against the Thunder in the first round thanks to excellent defense from Lu Dort. He limited Harden to just 31.5% shooting while serving as his primary defender, and Harden was mediocre in Game 7 despite the Rockets pulling out the win.
With that in mind, he’s probably happy to see the Lakers instead of the Thunder at this point. The Lakers are no joke defensively, but they don’t have the same caliber of on-ball defender to try to slow him down. He did struggle a bit vs. Danny Green during the regular season, but that was over a pretty small sample size (3-10 shooting).
Harden leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $11,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 83%.
Value
Tyler Herro is another member of the Heat who has seen a boost in value during the playoffs. He’s logged at least 28.6 minutes in each of his past six games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in five of them. This current matchup vs. the Bucks also sets up well for him given their deficiencies at guarding the 3-point line, so he’s a nice option at his current salary across the industry.
Fast Break
Khris Middleton is a virtual lock at just $7,500 on FanDuel. It results in a Bargain Rating of 95%, and Middleton has averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.92 with a comparable salary this season (per the Trends tool). That number doesn’t jump off the page, but he averaged just 29.9 minutes per game during the regular season. He has the potential to play much more than that today.
Green has struggled to knock down shots during the playoffs, but that hasn’t stopped him from being a decent fantasy option. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in each of his past four games, so he has solid upside for his price tag if his jump shot starts falling.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James continues to laugh in the face of Father Time. He was brilliant in his first round series vs. the Blazers, averaging 27.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 10.2 assists while shooting 60.0% from the field and 46.4% from 3-point range. The Blazers did not play a lick of defense this year, but those numbers are still mind-boggling for a guy in his 17th season.
He leads the SF position on FanDuel with 10 Pro Trends on today’s slate, and he continues to provide one of the safest floors in fantasy. The Lakers also have the added benefit of being well rested – their last game was four days ago – while the Rockets are coming off a grueling Game 7 on Wednesday. They’re currently implied for 115.75 points, which is the top mark on the slate.
Value
Jae Crowder definitely seems like a regression candidate today after shooting 12 3-pointers in his last contest. That tied his season-high, and he’s attempted double-digit 3’s in just six total games this season.
Still, it’s hard to write him off at just $5,000 on FanDuel. He’s logged at least 34.9 minutes in each of his first two games during this series, and he’s averaged a solid 0.87 FanDuel points per minute on the year.
Fast Break
Eric Gordon has seen a slight decrease in usage with Westbrook back in the lineup, but he’s made up for it by increasing his efficiency. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in each of his past eight games, and his $5,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 83%.
Jimmy Butler was awesome in Game 1 vs. the Bucks but struggled badly in Game 2. Which version will show up today? Unfortunately, I think the second game was a slightly better indicator of his future performance. He has been very inefficient from behind the 3-point line during the season, and that is where the Bucks struggle defensively. He’s still priced up across the industry, so I have no problem fading him again in Game 3.
Power Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo has posted a negative Plus/Minus in each of his first two games vs. the Heat, but I am not giving up on him that easily. He is simply way too talented to continue to struggle, particularly from a fantasy perspective. He’s averaged 2.01 DraftKings points per minute this season, which is absolutely insane. Head coach Mike Budenholzer has caught some flack for only playing Giannis around 36 minutes in each of the first two games of this series, so it’s possible he sees a few additional minutes in Game 3. If that happens, Giannis is going to absolutely smash his $10,600 salary on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 97%.
Value
Robert Covington isn’t cheap on today’s slate, but he still stands out as an excellent value. He’s been phenomenal for the Rockets over their past three games, scoring 42.9, 47.0, and 54.0 FanDuel points. Covington has averaged over 1.00 FanDuel points per minute this season and is playing big minutes for the Rockets, so he’s still underpriced across the industry.
Fast Break
Anthony Davis should have an absolute field day vs. the Rockets on the interior. Covington and P.J. Tucker are both solid defenders, but both guys have massive size disadvantages in this matchup. The Rockets have also been dreadful on the boards since trading away Clint Capela, which gives Davis even more upside than usual.
Marvin Williams makes some sense at $3,300 on DraftKings if you’re looking to employ a stars-and-scrubs approach. He’s expected to play around 20 minutes, and Williams has displayed a ceiling of around 25 DraftKings points in that role recently.
Center
Stud
Bam Adebayo has PF eligibility on FanDuel, but he’s a center on DraftKings. He’s not someone who stands out vs. the Bucks, who have been the best defensive team in the league at defending the rim, but Adebayo is capable of scoring fantasy points in a variety of ways. He leads the position with 10 Pro Trends, and $8,000 is a pretty reasonable salary. Adebayo has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.83 with a comparable price tag.
Value
Brook Lopez stands out as the preferred target on FanDuel with Adebayo unavailable. He’s been excellent in his first two games vs. the Heat, and his $5,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 71%. Lopez is also coming off 32.3 minutes in his last game, which is a higher mark that usual. He’s averaged 1.08 FanDuel points per minute this season, so should be able to pay off his salary pretty comfortably if he sees that much playing time again today.
Fast Break
P.J. Tucker is always going to be a viable option based on the sheer volume of minutes he plays. He’s currently projected for 37.8 minutes in our NBA Models, which is more than seven minutes higher than every other player at the position.
