Friday features Game 2 of the NBA Finals between the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat starting at 9 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game format, check out my primers on DraftKings or FanDuel before building your lineups.
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Studs
Any analysis of the studs in this contest has to start with the Lakers’ dynamic duo of LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
These guys came through in a big way in Game 1 of this series. James finished with 25 points, 13 rebounds, and nine assists — resulting in 58.25 DraftKings points — while Davis led the team with 34 points and 59.25 DraftKings points. These guys have dominated virtually all season, and it doesn’t look like the Heat are going to have any answer for them.
Miami ranked just 26th during the regular season in terms of opponent FG% at the rim, and now they’ll likely be playing without Bam Adebayo. He was easily their best rim protector during the regular season, so LeBron and AD should be able to feast in the paint once again.
Both players have been priced up aggressively on DraftKings for this contest, but there is plenty of value available for the Heat. These two players have easily the highest ceilings projections in our NBA Models, so I can’t imagine building a lineup without either of them.
The more important question is whether one should be in the Captain spot. That’s going to eat up a lot of your available salary cap, but I still think it’s probably the right decision.
On FanDuel, these two players are basically mandatory. Both guys own a Bargain Rating of at least 98%, so just slot them into two of the premium slots and move on.
On the Heat side, they are going to have to overcome injuries to Adebayo and Goran Dragic. Adebayo was their best all-around player during the playoffs, while Dragic has led the team in both usage rate in scoring. Both players are listed as doubtful for Game 2, and the Heat will be facing an uphill battle if both players are ultimately ruled out.
That said, it does open some value with the rest of the roster from a fantasy perspective.
Jimmy Butler will likely be asked to pick up most of the scoring slack. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +3.9% with both players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.17 DraftKings points per minute.
Butler is significantly cheaper than Davis and James on today’s slate, so he might be the most logical Captain choice on DraftKings if you want to jam all three into your lineup. Going with Butler at Captain and the other two at utility leaves you with an average of approximately $3,400 for your remaining three lineup spots. That is doable on today’s slate.
Midrange
I almost always advocate for a stars-and-scrubs approach in the single-game format, and that is even more important than usual on today’s slate. The Heat are going to provide a lot of viable values and punts, and the Lakers have some solid options as well.
With that in mind, I don’t think you necessarily need to roster a single player in this price range. They don’t provide nearly the same ceiling as the stud options or as much points-per-dollar value as the cheap options.
This is pretty clear when utilizing the NBA Models. The top seven players in terms of projected Plus/Minus are priced above $9,700 or below $5,100 on DraftKings.
If you do want to look at this price range, Tyler Herro stands out as one of the top options. He’s another member of the Heat who will be asked to increase his scoring output in Game 2, and he has already shown plenty of ability in that department during the postseason. The one downside with Herro is that he’s not great at producing in the other categories, and he’s priced pretty similarly to Butler on DraftKings. I would much rather target him at $11,000 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 95%.
Jae Crowder and Duncan Robinson have also been priced into this salary range for Game 2. Both players should see a slight bump in playing time if Dragic and Adebayo are ruled out, but they don’t profile as the type of guys who will see a huge boost in usage. They are perimeter-oriented players, so they need someone else to create looks for them.
Rajon Rondo is the only Lakers’ option in this price range, but he’s scored 18.25 DraftKings points or fewer in each of his past two games. Rondo is one of the best producers in this range on a per-minute basis, but his playing time has dwindled a bit recently. I’m fine with fading Rondo in order to fit in as many studs as possible.
Values & Punts
These are the players who typically decide these showdown contests. It may not feel comfortable to roster someone who isn’t projected for a ton of minutes, but history suggests it’s the easiest way to find yourself at the top of the leaderboard. These plays typically command lower ownership than the mid-tier guys, so they allow you to differentiate your lineup without sacrificing the high-end stud production.
Let’s break down some of the top options in this range, rapid-fire style:
- Kenrick Nunn: $5,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel – Nunn came off the bench in Game 1 and finished with 28.25 DraftKings points over 19.8 minutes. He will likely move into the starting lineup in place of Dragic, and Nunn started all 67 regular season games for the Heat this season. He averaged 25.77 DraftKings points in those contests, and he increased his production to 29.23 DraftKings points in games without Dragic. He’s a great value across the industry but grabbing him at just $6,500 on FanDuel is downright larceny.
- Kyle Kuzma: $4,400 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel – The Lakers’ chose to start their big lineup in Game 1, but they don’t necessarily need to go that route if Adebayo is out in Game 2. That could mean a few additional minutes for Kuzma, who is coming off 18.0 DraftKings points in his last game.
- Danny Green: $4,000 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel – Green is overpriced on FanDuel but has some appeal at just $4,000 on DraftKings. He finished with 28.0 DraftKings points in Game 1 thanks to 11 points, four rebounds, one assist, two steals, and three blocks. The defensive stats are a bit fluky, but Green is still an interesting option given his current workload and ability to shoot from the perimeter.
- Alex Caruso: $3,800 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel – The Heat will likely garner the majority of the ownership in this price range, don’t forget about Caruso. He’s become an important part of the Lakers’ rotation and has scored at least 20.0 DraftKings points in two straight games.
- Dwight Howard: $3,600 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel – Howard remained in the starting lineup for Game 1 of this series, and he’ll be a solid value play if he draws another start in Game 2. Howard has averaged over 1.00 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his current salary.
- Andre Iguodala: $3,400 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel – Iggy is clearly on the downside of his career, but the Heat have leaned on him a little harder during the latter stages of the playoffs. He’s logged at least 25.4 minutes in three of his past four games, and he’s scored at least 24.25 DraftKings points in each of his past two. That makes him underpriced at his current salary.
- Kelly Olynyk: $3,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel – Olynyk might be the best pure value on today’s slate. He should replace Adebayo in the starting lineup, and Olynyk is a very capable producer on a per-minute basis. He scored 19.75 DraftKings points over just 18.1 minutes in Game 1, and he’s currently projected for 23.5 minutes in our NBA Models.
- Solomon Hill ($2,600) & Derrick Jones Jr. ($2,200) – These are DraftKings only plays, but both could have some appeal as pure punts if you’re looking to load up on the studs. Both players figure to see some court time today, and they don’t need to do much to pay off their current salaries. They should also garner virtually no ownership.
Pictured above: LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers and Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat
Photo credit: Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images
