NBA DFS Breakdown (Friday, March 26): Shorthanded Heat Providing Value

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Friday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Point Guard

Stud

James Harden missed the Nets’ last game with neck soreness, and he’s currently listed as questionable vs. the Pistons. That said, he’s in one of the best spots of the day if he’s able to suit up. Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant remain out of the lineup, and Harden has been a force in games without both players. He’s increased his usage rate by +6.9% and his assist rate by +12.9%, resulting in an average of 58.3 DraftKings points per game. He stands out as one of the best values of the day on DraftKings, where his $10,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%.

Make sure to monitor Harden’s status using the new Labs Insiders tool.

Value

The Heat were extremely shorthanded Thursday night vs. the Blazers, and they could be thin once again. The team lost a number of role players at the trade deadline, and none of the new additions are expected to make their debuts. Goran Dragic also remains out of the lineup, while Jimmy Butler is questionable with an illness.

Kendrick Nunn has carried a nice workload in place of Dragic recently, logging at least 33.9 minutes in back-to-back games. He finished with at least 32.75 DraftKings points in both of those contests, which makes him a strong option vs. the Hornets even if Butler suits up.

Fast Break

The Pistons are another team that should offer significant value at point guard. They traded away starting point guard Delon Wright, which means Dennis Smith Jr. and Saben Lee will likely split those duties vs. the Nets. DSJ is currently projected for more minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s also been the more productive player on a per-minute basis. That said, Lee is dirt-cheap across the industry. Both guys could have some appeal.

Rounding out the value squads on Friday’s slate is the Magic. They traded away virtually their entire team Thursday, and none of the players they acquired are expected to play. Terrence Ross is also considered doubtful, which leaves the team with a ton of available usage and minutes. Michael Carter-Williams should be asked to pick up the majority of the load on offense, and he’s a steal on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 87%. He also owns an elite matchup vs. the Blazers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.98.

Shooting Guard

Stud

C.J. McCollum is back to playing his usual workload for the Blazers, which means he’s simply too cheap at $7,500 on FanDuel. His current price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 72%, and McCollum has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.26 (per the Trends tool).

Damian Lillard has also been ruled out for rest purposes, which makes McCollum an even stronger play at this price tag. McCollum has increased his usage rate by +4.7% with Lillard off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.13 FanDuel points per minute. Norman Powell is questionable to make his debut, but McCollum would still be a good bet to lead the team in usage if he’s active.

Value

Tyler Herro is another member of the Heat who should see a boost in value today. He led the team with a 31.9% usage rate in their last game, and he finished with 46.8 FanDuel points. He’s averaged 0.87 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he’s capable of taking advantage of a few additional minutes. He’s a particularly strong option on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 78%.

Fast Break

Fred VanVleet’s fantasy stock gets a slight boost following the trade deadline. The team did not move Kyle Lowry, but they did ship Norman Powell off to the Blazers. Powell was second on the team in usage rate, so his absence opens up a number of shot attempts for the rest of the roster.

VanVleet should be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.7% with Powell off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.07 DraftKings points per minute. He’s currently projected for 39.6 minutes in our NBA Models, which is the top mark on the slate.

Josh Jackson is one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel. His $4,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%, and he should see a few additional minutes with Wright no longer in town. He’s averaged a stout 0.99 FanDuel points per minute this season, and the Pistons should give the former lottery pick a serious look down the stretch.

Small Forward

Stud

Jaylen Brown has provided excellent fantasy value recently. He’s scored at least 42.0 DKFP in six straight games, and he’s scored at least 47.75 DraftKings points in four of them. Overall, he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +9.07 over that time frame.

He’s in a nice spot today vs. the Bucks. Milwaukee has not been the same defensive juggernaut that it was last season, and plays at one of the fastest paces in the league. The total on this game currently sits at 234.0 points, which is the top mark on the slate.

Value

Another position, another value option for the Heat. Trevor Ariza finished with just 18.75 DKFP Thursday, but he played 33.2 minutes. Ariza averaged 0.76 DKFP per minute over his previous two contests, so he has the potential for a better performance vs. the Hornets. He’s way too cheap at $3,400 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%.

Fast Break

Kelly Oubre is another player who owns a Bargain Rating of 99% on DraftKings, and he should continue to benefit from the absence of Steph Curry. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.1% with Curry off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.96 DraftKings points per minute. Oubre finished with a slightly disappointing 28.5 DraftKings points Thursday, but he exploded for 45.5 DraftKings points in the previous contest.

The Hornets sadly lost LaMelo Ball to a season-ending injury, but that does create some fantasy value with the rest of the roster. Gordon Hayward looks like one of their best targets on FanDuel. His $7,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%, and Hayward logged 44.4 FanDuel points in his first game without Ball.

Power Forward

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo is coming off a terrible performance in his last outing, but he’ll get a chance to bounce back tonight. Despite that clunker, he’s still been one of the best investments in fantasy of late. He’s scored at least 57.25 in each of his previous six games, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.56 over his past 10 games. There are plenty of value options on today’s slate, so pairing Antetokounmpo and Harden together is a viable strategy.

Value

Khem Birch has dual PF/C eligibility on DraftKings, and he’s someone who should take on a larger role for the Magic. He’s averaged a decent 0.80 DKFP per minute this season, and he’s currently projected for 29.0 minutes in our NBA Models. That makes him an excellent value across the industry.

Fast Break

Zion Williamson stands out as an excellent value on FanDuel. His $8,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 78%, and he leads the position with 14 Pro Trends. Williamson should also benefit from the absence of Lonzo Ball. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +3.1% with Ball off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.30 FanDuel points per minute.

Maxi Kleber makes sense if you’re looking for a punt play at the position. He’s projected for 31.7 minutes at just $3,800 on FanDuel, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.37.

Center

Stud

Karl-Anthony Towns has played reduced minutes since returning from a lengthy absence due to COVID-19, but his playing time is trending in the right direction. He’s played at least 35.1 minutes in six of his past seven games, and Towns has the potential to do some serious damage vs. the Rockets with that much playing time. He’s averaged 1.40 DKFP per minute this season, and his matchup vs. the Rockets results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.92.

Value

James Wiseman’s return didn’t get off to a great start Thursday night, but his 29.6 minutes was still very encouraging for his fantasy stock moving forward. Wiseman has averaged 1.03 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he should be able to improve tonight vs. the Hawks. The Hawks are a solid matchup, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.14, and his $4,200 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%.

Fast Break

The Suns cut Deandre Ayton’s playing time for a while, but he’s back to playing his usual minutes. He’s logged at least 32 minutes in his past three games, and he’s unsurprisingly responded with at least 33.75 DraftKings points in all three contests. That makes him an appealing value at just $6,100.

The Rockets are another team that has plenty of shots available tonight. Victor Oladipo was traded to the Heat, and Kevin Porter Jr. is not expected to play. That leaves John Wall and Christian Wood to carry the offense vs. the Timberwolves. Wood should be able to feast given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.1.

Photo Credit: Carlos Goldman/NBAE via Getty Images
Pictured: Tyler Herro