The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 10-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Luka Doncic is coming off back-to-back games with at least 68.5 DraftKings points, and he racked up those performances against a good defensive team in the Clippers. Now, he gets an outstanding matchup vs. the Trail Blazers. Portland ranks just 29th in defensive efficiency, and the Mavericks’ implied team total of 115.75 ranks sixth on the slate. The Mavericks will also start Tim Hardaway Jr. instead of Dorian Finney-Smith tonight, and their offense has unsurprisingly been far more effective with THJ on the court.
Doncic also stands out as an excellent value on FanDuel, where his $10,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%.
Value
Frank Jackson limped to just 10.5 DKFP in his last game, but he was on the court for more than 31 minutes. That’s a ton of playing time upside for someone who costs just $3,200. He’s projected for a similar workload Friday vs. the Rockets, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.42 (per the Trends tool). Jackson has also averaged 0.73 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he looks like a prime candidate for some positive regression.
Fast Break
Delon Wright has been fantastic for the Pistons all season, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past three games. His salary remains very affordable at $5,600 on FanDuel, and his matchup vs. the Rockets results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.02.
James Harden has been on an absolute mission since arriving in Brooklyn. Kyrie Irving will return to the lineup tonight vs. the Magic, but Kyrie being active hasn’t stopped Harden from being a fantasy monster. Harden has posted an average Plus/Minus of +9.93 over his past 10 games, and Irving has been in the lineup for most of those contests. He should continue to garner heavy consideration for as long as Kevin Durant is sidelined.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Shooting guard doesn’t stand out as a great position to pay up at on Friday, but Devin Booker has some appeal against the Timberwolves. His production has been up recently – he’s averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute over the past month – and the Timberwolves represent an excellent matchup. They rank 26th in defensive efficiency, and Phoenix’s implied team total of 121.75 is the top mark on the slate. Booker scored 50.0 DraftKings points against this same team yesterday, so there’s no reason he can’t do it again tonight.
Value
The Warriors are going to provide some excellent fantasy value on Friday. Steph Curry has been ruled out for at least the next two games, while Kelly Oubre is currently listed as doubtful. Those two players being out of the lineup would open up a ton of minutes and usage for the rest of the roster.
Andrew Wiggins will be asked to pick up most of the slack. He’s increased his usage rate by +6.3% with Curry and Oubre off the court this season, which gives him plenty of upside vs. the Grizzlies. There’s definitely a chance that the Warriors get blown out without Curry, but Wiggins simply too cheap to pass up on today’s slate.
Fast Break
Tim Hardaway Jr. stands out as a nice value with Finney-Smith out of the lineup. He’s currently projected for 35 minutes in our NBA Models, and Hardaway has averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That should be more than enough playing time for him to return value in an elite matchup.
Tyrese Haliburton has SG eligibility on DraftKings, and he could fly a bit under-the-radar tonight. He moved into the starting lineup in the Kings’ last game, and he should continue to start with Marvin Bagley sidelined. Haliburton has averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he can do some damage with additional playing time.
Small Forward
Stud
The Celtics are coming off back-to-back losses, but don’t blame Jaylen Brown. He was excellent in both contests, racking up at least 47.75 DraftKings points in each game. He also played at least 38.9 minutes in both contests, and he should continue to provide elite production if he sees that much court time.
Brown is in a particularly good spot tonight vs. the Kings. They rank dead-last in defensive efficiency this season, and the Celtics’ implied team total of 120.0 ranks second on the slate.
Value
Kent Bazemore is another member of the Warriors who should see a boost in value on Friday. Bazemore has always been a solid producer when given the chance to play, and he’s averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s currently projected for 25.8 minutes at the absolute minimum on FanDuel, and Bazemore has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.25 with a comparable salary and minute projection. He’s arguably the top value option on the slate.
Fast Break
Jimmy Butler is an interesting contrarian option on DraftKings. He’s projected for minimal ownership, but he’s been one of the best players in fantasy of late. He’s also affordable at $9,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%. That makes him an awesome option for tournaments.
Saddiq Bey is coming off a monster performance in his last game, and he should have plenty of opportunities to play over the second half of the season. The Pistons are going nowhere, and Bey has displayed plenty of upside as a first-round pick in last year’s draft. He’s underpriced at $4,300 on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Stud
Jayson Tatum stands out for a lot of the same reasons as Brown. He’s playing all the minutes he can handle at the moment, and he has one of the best possible matchups vs. the Kings. His production hasn’t been quite as good as Brown’s recently, which has caused his salary to dip below $9,000 on DraftKings. That makes him a nice buy-low target.
Value
Daniel Theis laid an egg in his last game, but his fantasy outlook remains positive. Tristan Thompson will miss his third-straight game due to health and safety protocols, which means Theis’ workload should be safe. He’s played at least 25.6 minutes in back-to-back games, and Theis has averaged a respectable 0.90 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s a strong value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 72%, and his matchup vs. the Kings results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.72.
Fast Break
Larry Nance Jr. has played at least 36.5 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s responded with at least 34.25 DraftKings points in both contests. He should be looking at a similar workload today with Kevin Love out of the lineup, which makes Nance an elite option at his current price tag.
Dario Saric is another potential value option at power forward. He’s very affordable at just $3,800 on FanDuel, and he’s played a few additional minutes recently with Cam Johnson out of the lineup. Saric has averaged 1.03 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to potential return value. His matchup vs. the Timberwolves also results in an elite Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.53.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic is coming off a rare poor game in his last outing, but it wasn’t exactly his fault. He played just 28.6 minutes in a blowout victory, which capped his production at 42.5 DraftKings points.
If Jokic returns to his normal workload tonight, he has the potential for a monster performance vs. the Bulls. Jokic has averaged a stout 1.68 DraftKings points per minute this season, and the Bulls have played at the seventh-fastest pace. They’ve struggled vs. opposing centers in particular, giving Jokic an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.36.
Value
Robert Williams is another player who should benefit from the absence of Thompson. Williams has made the most of his minutes recently – he’s scored at least 42.25 DraftKings points in two of his past three games – and he’s averaged a stout 1.48 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He should be able to have his way vs. the Kings’ frontcourt given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.12.
Fast Break
Jonas Valanciunas has seen his price tag drop to $7,300 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 72%. That’s an appealing price tag for Valanciunas, who has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.22 with a comparable salary as a member of the Grizzlies. He’s another center with a strong matchup on today’s slate given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.74.
Enes Kanter stands out as one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel. His $6,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%, and he’s coming off 38.1 FanDuel points in his last outing. His 10 Pro Trends are tied for the third-highest mark at the position, and he should carry minimal ownership.
Pictured: Steph Curry
Credit: Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images.
