Friday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
Luka Doncic is coming off a rare poor game in his last outing, finishing with just 49.0 DraftKings points over 34 minutes. However, he still posted a massive 40.4% usage rate, and he scored at least 71.5 DraftKings points in each of his previous two games.
That makes him an elite bounce-back option, especially in a juicy matchup vs. the Rockets. They’ve been one of the best matchups in fantasy this season, ranking first in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency. The Mavericks are currently implied for 118.0 points, which is the third-highest mark on the slate.
Doncic is an absolute steal at $10,700 on FanDuel. It results in a Bargain Rating of 97%, and he’s not even the most expensive player at the position. He’s $100 cheaper than Dejounte Murray despite owning a ceiling projection more than 11 points higher in our NBA Models.
Value
The Pelicans are trying to catch the Lakers in the Western Conference standings, but they’re going to be without two key contributors on Friday. C.J. McCollum is out due to health and safety protocols, while Brandon Ingram will miss the next 7-10 days with a hamstring strain.
Devonte’ Graham figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries. Since McCollum joined the team on February 10, Graham has increased his usage rate by +5.6% with McCollum and Ingram off the floor. He’s increased his production to 0.97 DraftKings points per minute in that situation, and he should see a significant boost in playing time as well. He can do some serious damage vs. the Hornets, who rank third in pace and 22nd in defensive efficiency this season.
Fast Break
Graham isn’t the only potential value option for the Pelicans. Jose Alvarado is dirt cheap at $3,100 on DraftKings, and he’s averaged a strong 0.97 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s currently projected for 24 minutes in our NBA Models, giving him a great shot at paying off his minimal price tag.
Mike Conley has been priced down to $5,000 on FanDuel, and he has some buy-low appeal at that price tag. The Jazz own a strong matchup vs. the Spurs, and they’ll also be without Bojan Bogdanovic. Conley has averaged 0.96 FanDuel points per minute with Bogdanovic off the floor this season, and he’s expected to play around 30 minutes.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Sticking with the Jazz, Donovan Mitchell has some sneaky upside on this slate. He shouldn’t command nearly the same ownership as some of the other top studs, but he’s been the biggest beneficiary with Bogdanovic off the court this season. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +3.2%, and he’s averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute. His price tag has also decreased by -$600 over the past month on DraftKings and FanDuel, so he’s much more appealing than usual.
Value
Derrick White has seen a big reduction in fantasy value since joining the Celtics, but he’s coming off 37.25 DraftKings points in his last outing. Overall, he’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his price has dipped to just $4,700 for Friday’s matchup vs. the Pistons. He’s projected for 26 minutes in our NBA Models, and that should be enough to pay off his reduced price tag.
Fast Break
Jaylen Brown is another potential target for the Celtics, particularly on FanDuel. His $7,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%, and his 10 Pro Trends trail only Doncic’s 11 at the position. Brown has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.77 with a comparable salary, including a mark of +2.14 this season (per the Trends tool).
Anthony Edwards is a big x-factor on today’s slate. He returned to the lineup in the Timberwolves’ last game, but he was limited to just 25.5 minutes. That makes him tough to trust, but his price has dipped to just $6,400 on FanDuel. If he sees a few additional minutes vs. the Magic, he has the potential to destroy that price tag.
Small Forward
Stud
Jimmy Butler is currently questionable for the Heat, just as he has been for most of the season. That hasn’t stopped him from suiting up in most games, but he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past six games.
That’s caused Butler’s price tag to drop to just $7,800 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%, and he’s hard not to like at that price tag. Butler has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.16 with a comparable salary, and he’s only been priced below $8,600 in five previous games this season.
Value
The Pelicans are going to be a popular source of value given their current absences, and they have two potential options at small forward. Trey Murphy III is priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, and he’s currently projected for 24 minutes in our NBA Models. Murphy has averaged just 0.68 DraftKings points per minute this season, but he’s increased that figure to 0.78 over the past month.
Naji Marshall is a bit more expensive at $3,300, and he’s also projected for two fewer minutes. However, he should be able to make up for it with superior per-minute production. He’s averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute this season, including 0.97 over the past month. That makes him my preferred option.
Fast Break
Amir Coffey is another potential value option at the position. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games, yet he remains very affordable at just $3,800 on DraftKings. He should continue to see a few additional minutes with Norman Powell and Robert Covington out of the lineup.
Evan Fournier is priced at just $4,200 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 94%, and he’s been playing plenty of minutes for the Knicks recently. He’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models, which should be more than enough to return value.
Power Forward
Stud
Deciding between Doncic and LeBron James is going to be a tough call, but I’m still giving a slight edge to The King. The Lakers are desperate for wins, so they have no choice but to push James extremely hard down the stretch. He’s coming off nearly 45.3 minutes in their overtime loss to the Rockets on Wednesday, which means he has the potential to play more than 40 minutes in this matchup. James has averaged 1.53 DraftKings points per minute in games without Anthony Davis this season, so he has massive upside with that much playing time.
Value
P.J. Washington’s playing time has fluctuated this season, but he’s playing all the minutes he can handle at the moment. He’s racked up at least 36.9 minutes in three straight games, making him very appealing at just $5,200 on DraftKings. He’s struggled in those contests, but Washington has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute this season. That means there should be better games on the horizon.
Fast Break
Kristaps Porzingis has suited up in the past two games for the Wizards, and he’s been effective. He’s averaged 1.39 FanDuel points per minute, albeit over limited playing time. His minutes were increased to 25.9 in his last outing, and he could see another bump in minutes in a great matchup vs. the Lakers. He’s one of the top options at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 97%.
Pascal Siakam is another player who stands out as underpriced on FanDuel. His $8,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%, and he typically carries one of the largest workloads in basketball. He’s racked up at least 40.5 minutes in three of his past four games, the lone exception came in a comfortable 15-point victory. Expect him to be busy once again vs. the Suns.
Center
Stud
Center is a bit weaker than usual at the top on Friday. Karl-Anthony Towns headlines the position, and he owns a nice matchup vs. the Magic. However, it’s hard to get excited about him if the team is at full strength.
My opinion on Towns would change drastically if Edwards is unable to suit up. He’s officially questionable despite playing in their last game, and Towns has been outstanding in seven games without Edwards this season. He’s increased his usage rate by +3.3% in seven games without his star teammate, resulting in an average of 1.64 DraftKings points per minute.
Value
Unfortunately, center doesn’t stand out as a great value position either. The most exciting option is Alperen Sengun, but he needs Christian Wood to sit to justify his current price tag. Sengun has played huge minutes in his last two games with Wood sidelined, and he racked up 50.0 DraftKings points in his last outing. I would have no problem using him again if Wood is ruled out given his average of 1.20 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
Rudy Gobert wasn’t really needed in the Jazz’s last game, finishing with just 22.5 DraftKings points over 22.2 minutes. That’s caused his price tag to dip across the industry, making him an outstanding buy-low target vs. the Spurs. He’s averaged 1.31 FanDuel points per minute this season, and his $7,400 salary on FanDuel represents a decrease of -$1,600 over the past month.
Finally, don’t forget about Jonas Valanciunas for the Pelicans. He’ll have the opportunity to serve as their top offensive option with McCollum and Ingram sidelined, and Valanciunas is one of the best per-minute producers in basketball. He’s coming off a monster performance in his last outing, finishing with 63.5 FanDuel points vs. the Magic, and that came with McCollum in the lineup.
