NBA DFS Breakdown (Friday, Jan. 8): Nets and Celtics Will Dominate Ownership

Friday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Below we’ll use our extensive suite of analytical tools to evaluate the slate, primarily our NBA Models.

Point Guard

Stud

Chris Paul isn’t the highest-priced PG on Friday, but he might be the best pure value. He hasn’t gotten off to the best start this season – he’s shooting just 40.7% from the field and 33.3% from 3-point range – but he’s still averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute.

He’s in an elite spot tonight vs. the Pistons. They’ve struggled mightily on defense, ranking just 27th in defensive efficiency, and Paul’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.44 on DraftKings is the second-highest mark at the position.

Value

The Celtics are in arguably the top spot of the day. They’re taking on the Wizards, who rank second in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency to start the year. That is a juicy combination from a fantasy perspective, and the Celtics’ implied team total of 120.5 is the top mark on the slate.

The Celtics are also going to be a bit shorthanded. Tristan Thompson, Robert Williams, and Grant Williams are all going to have to quarantine for at least the next seven days, which leaves them without a ton of available options in their frontcourt.

If the Celtics choose to play a bit smaller than usual – and they may have no choice but to go that route – Marcus Smart should benefit. His defensive versatility gives him the ability to guard bigger players, who could earn him a few additional minutes. Regardless, Smart has posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in five straight games, making him an excellent value at $5,900.

Fast Break

The Grizzlies are desperate for offense right now, and De’Anthony Melton is a guy who should help them in that department. He’s still playing limited minutes following an absence due to COVID-19 protocols, but his playing time is trending in the right direction. He played 21.2 minutes Thursday vs. the Cavaliers after playing just 15.8 minutes in his first game this season. Melton doesn’t need a ton of playing time to return value given his average of 0.87 DraftKings points per minute this season, but he may take another step forward in that area tonight.

No one at the position is projected for more minutes than Kyle Lowry, and he’s in an excellent spot tonight vs. the Kings. They rank just 24th in defensive efficiency, and Lowry owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.56 on FanDuel.

Shooting Guard

Stud

The Celtics and the Nets are going to dominate the ownership on today’s slate. The Nets are extremely shorthanded at the moment. Not only is Spencer Dinwiddie possibly out for the season, but Kevin Durant is out due to health and safety protocols and Kyrie Irving is away from the team for personal reasons. That opens up a ton of opportunities for the rest of the roster.

That makes Caris LeVert one of the easiest plays on the slate. He finished with 50.75 DraftKings points last night vs. an excellent 76ers defense, even though he shot just 9-25 from the field. He’s also seen a team-high usage bump of +7.7% with Dinwiddie, Durant, and Irving off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.45 DraftKings points per minute. He basically has the upside of a $10k+ player, but you can get him for less than $7,500 on DraftKings. Don’t overthink this one.

Value

Sticking with the Nets, Joe Harris is another player who should thrive given the current state of their roster. He posted a season-high 46.0 DraftKings points last night vs. the 76ers, and he’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute with Dinwiddie, Durant, and Irving off the court this season. He has SG eligibility on DraftKings and SF eligibility on FanDuel, but he deserves consideration regardless of which site you’re playing on.

Fast Break

Donovan Mitchell has not gotten off to a great start this season. He’s shooting just 37.9% from the field and 32.4% from 3-point range, which has caused his salary to dip to just $7,600 on DraftKings. That makes him an interesting buy-low target. Mitchell has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.34 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool), and he has plenty of upside in a pace-up spot vs. the Bucks.

Speaking of buy-low options, Devonte’ Graham is one of the best plays of the day at just $5,100 on FanDuel. His minutes had been down recently, but he logged a whopping 39.1 minutes in his last contest. Graham averaged just under 1.00 FanDuel points per minute last season, so he’s way underpriced if he’s going to continue to see that much playing time.

Small Forward

Stud

It’s hard to look past Jayson Tatum on today’s slate. He’s been tremendous to start the season, and he’s on pace to post new career-highs in usage rate, assist rate, and rebound rate. The result is an average of 1.26 FanDuel points per minute through his first nine games.

He also figures to be one of the primary beneficiaries with all of their big men out of the lineup. He’s projected for 36.8 minutes in our NBA Models, which is the second-highest mark at the position, and he could even be asked to play some center. That would give him even more upside on the glass than usual.

Value

The Nets have a couple of interesting value options at SF. Taurean Prince has started each of the past two games for the Nets, while Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot has given them excellent production off the bench. Both players are projected for a similar number of minutes in our NBA Models, which gives both players the potential to pay off their minimal salaries. TLC has been the better player on a per-minute basis – he’s averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute with Dinwiddie, Durant, and Irving off the court this season – which gives him a slight edge in terms of upside.

Fast Break

Brandon Ingram could be a bit overlooked today. Most people will likely be loading up on the Celtics and Nets, and there are plenty of other high-priced studs to absorb ownership as well. That said, Ingram has averaged a stout 1.33 DraftKings points per minute this season, and his matchup vs. the Hornets results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.21.

The Clippers own an excellent matchup tonight vs. the Warriors. They rank 22nd in defensive efficiency, and the Clippers’ implied team total of 117.75 ranks third on the slate. Kawhi Leonard is always capable of putting up a huge performance, and he’s scored at least 54.1 FanDuel points in three of his past five games.

Power Forward

Stud

Zion Williamson has not been as dominant as some expected this season, but he’s in a potential smash spot today vs. the Hornets. They’ve struggled on the glass and in the paint, and those are the two areas where Zion does the majority of his damage. Overall, his Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.99 is the top mark at the position on FanDuel.

Value

Davis Bertans was on a minute’s limit to start the season, but it appears that has changed. He’s logged at least 30.7 minutes in each of his past two games, including a season-high 33 minutes in his last game. Bertans is capable of racking up fantasy points in bunches thanks to his ability to shoot the 3-ball, so he’s underpriced if he’s going to continue to see that much playing time.

Fast Break

Brandon Clarke is another player who has seen his minute count rise recently. He’s played at least 28.5 minutes in five of his past six games, and he’s coming off 30.2 minutes last night vs. the Cavaliers. Clarke has averaged a solid 0.83 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he has the potential to improve that number moving forward. He averaged 1.10 FanDuel points per minute last year, and he should carry a larger usage rate with Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. out of the lineup.

You can add Jeff Green’s name to the list of potential value plays for the Nets. He played 28.9 minutes in yesterday’s contest and responded with 21.75 DraftKings points. That kind of production would make him a solid value at just $3,800 on DraftKings.

Center

Stud

Nikola Vucevic leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and he has the potential to destroy the Rockets tonight. They’ve struggled against big men to begin with – Vucevic owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.74 – and Christian Wood might be forced to sit out with an injury.

Vucevic should also benefit from the Magic’s current injury situation. Markelle Fultz is out for the year after an ACL injury, while Evan Fournier is questionable. If Fournier is ruled out, Vucevic could be asked to carry an even larger workload than usual on the offensive end.

Value

Daniel Theis has historically been a solid producer on a per-minute basis, and he’s going to have the chance to play more minutes with the rest of Boston’s center options sidelined. He’s currently projected for 29.8 minutes in our NBA Models, and Theis has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.16 with a comparable salary and minute projection. The Wizards are also a dream matchup for centers, giving Theis an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.25 on DraftKings.

Fast Break

Jarrett Allen has moved into the starting lineup recently, and the results have been fantastic. He’s finished with at least 37.75 DraftKings points in each of his past three games, which is not surprising given his average of 1.26 DraftKings points per minute this season.

Al Horford is not a sexy DFS option, but he’s going to get the job done for you on most nights. He’s priced at just $5,200 on FanDuel, and he’s scored at least 25.0 FanDuel points in all but one game this season. He’s also in a solid spot vs. the Knicks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.87.