The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET
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Point Guard
Stud
There are more expensive players available at the position, but Devonte’ Graham stands out as arguably the best pure value on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 90%. He has scored at least 28.5 DraftKings points in seven straight games, and he has scored 37.0 or more DraftKings points in three of them. Graham is back to playing big minutes for the Hornets, and he’s averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute this season.
The Bulls also represent an excellent matchup. They rank 26th in defensive efficiency, and the Hornets’ implied team total of 115.25 ranks third on the slate.
Value
Jalen Brunson recently missed four games due to health and safety protocols; but upon his return, he has stepped right back into a big role in the Mavericks’ rotation. He has logged at least 27.4 minutes in back-to-back games — including 33.9 minutes in his last outing — and he has finished with at least 20.5 DraftKings in each.
Brunson is projected for 29.1 minutes on Friday via our NBA Models. He’s capable of doing a lot of damage with that much playing time given his average of 0.97 DraftKings points per minute.
Fast Break
Elfrid Payton owns one of the best matchups at the position. He’s taking on the Sacramento Kings, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency by a significant margin. The Kings have allowed 121.98 points per 100 possessions, which endows Payton with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.17 on FanDuel.
Kyle Lowry is priced fairly across the industry. He’s carrying one of the largest workloads at the position — no other PG is projected for more than his 36.1 minutes in our NBA Models — and he has posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his last eight games. Historically, Lowry has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.27 with a comparable price tag on FanDuel, so he should continue to be able to return value at $7,500 (per the Trends tool).
Shooting Guard
Stud
Victor Oladipo has carried a monster workload in his first two games with the Rockets. He has averaged a 39.4% usage rate and a 43.0% assist rate, both of which are drastically higher than his previous marks with the Pacers.
Oladipo is going to have a chance to carry an even larger workload tonight vs. the Pistons. Christian Wood has already been ruled out, and Wood ranks second on the team in usage since Oladipo joined the team. In fact, Oladipo has only played six minutes without Wood since joining the Rockets, but he’s increased his usage rate by +14.1% with Wood off the court. That magnitude of increase is not sustainable over a full game, but it’s clear that Oladipo is going to be more involved than usual.
The Pistons are also an excellent matchup. They’ve defended poorly to start the season, ranking just 25th in defensive efficiency.
Value
Sticking with the Rockets, Eric Gordon should serve as the secondary playmaker behind Oladipo. Gordon has played at least 33.9 minutes and has averaged 29.5 DraftKings points in each of the previous two games. He has also increased his usage rate by 9.8% with Wood, John Wall, and James Harden off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.15 DraftKings points per minute.
Fast Break
The Celtics are still a bit shorthanded at the moment. Jayson Tatum remains sidelined due to health and safety protocols, so Marcus Smart should continue to see a boost in playing time. He’s coming off 34.1 minutes and 36.8 FanDuel points in his last outing, so he’s a nice option at $6,200.
Reggie Bullock has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games on FanDuel, yet he remains priced near the minimum at just $3,600. That makes him an appealing target today. Bullock is projected for 29.2 minutes in our NBA Models; players with comparable salaries and minutes projections have historically averaged a +4.14 Plus/Minus.
Small Forward
Stud
Jaylen Brown is another member of the Celtics that stands out vs. the 76ers. He’s coming off a subpar performance in his last game, but he posted a monster 39.4% usage rate. Brown has averaged 1.23 FanDuel points per minute with Tatum off the court this season, so he should deliver a much better performance tonight with some positive shooting regression: He was just 10-24 from the field and 3-10 from 3-point range in his last outing.
Value
Cameron Johnson’s playing time has been erratic, but he’ earned 28.5 minutes in his most recent game. If he plays that much again today, then he’s clearly underpriced at $4,400. Johnson is projected for 27.2 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.00 with a comparable salary and minute projection.
Fast Break
Paying up for Jerami Grant is not the most appealing prospect, but it has been a great decision recently. Grant has dominated for the Pistons, scoring at least 42.5 DraftKings points in seven of his last eight games. Furthermore, he has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Grant said that he opted to sign with the Pistons instead of re-signing with the Nuggets, because he wanted to be a bigger part of the offense — and it appears that his wish has come true. The Rockets have played at the sixth-fastest pace this season, so Grant carries more upside than usual in this matchup.
Kawhi Leonard demolished the Kings in his last outing, finishing with 58.1 FanDuel points over 35 minutes. He has scored at least 50.4 FanDuel points in three of the past five games, which grants him a nice ceiling at $9,500 on FanDuel. There’s always some risk with Leonard, but he can easily pay off his current price tag.
Power Forward
Stud
Kristaps Porzingis missed the early part of the season while recovering from knee surgery, but he’s basically been back at full strength since rejoining the rotation. Porzingis has played in five straight games — including both legs of a back-to-back — and he’s played at least 31.9 minutes in each of the past three. He has averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s coming off 53.25 DraftKings points in his last outing. Porzingis is simply too cheap at his current price tag across the industry.
Value
LaMarcus Aldridge has accepted a much smaller role with the Spurs this season — but $5,500 still feels way too cheap for a player of his caliber. He’s still playing around 30 minutes on most nights, and he has averaged 0.91 DraftKings points over the past month. Aldridge’s price has dropped following three dreadful performances over his past four games, which makes this an excellent opportunity to buy low on him. He’s only been priced at a comparable salary on five previous occasions, but he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.90 in those contests.
Fast Break
The Bulls have gotten a bit healthier recently, but Thaddeus Young is still earning a healthy amount of playing time. Young is projected for 24.4 minutes in our NBA Models, and he has averaged 0.92 FanDuel points per minute. That should be more than enough playing time to pay off his $3,800 price tag on FanDuel — especially given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.48 vs. the Hornets.
John Collins’ 11 Pro Trends are tied for the top mark at the position on FanDuel, where his $6,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 69%. He is in an excellent spot vs. the Timberwolves, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.50.
Center
Stud
All Nikola Vucevic does is return value for fantasy players; yet, his salary never seems to budge. He has scored at least 46.5 DraftKings in six of his past seven games; yet, his salary has actually decreased by $100 over that timeframe. That doesn’t make much sense, and his current $8,900 price tag on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
His matchup vs. the Pacers isn’t ideal — Detroit ranks 13th in defensive efficiency — but Vucevic is simply too good to pass up at this salary.
Value
Speaking of too good to pass up, DeMarcus Cousins stands out as the easiest play on the entire slate. He remains a dominant fantasy force on a per-minute basis, averaging 1.45 DraftKings points per minute this season, but a lack of playing time has kept his performances in check. That shouldn’t be a problem today with Wood out of the lineup. Head coach Stephen Silas has already stated that Cousins will start, and he has ridiculous upside if he’s going to play starter-caliber minutes. You can pair him with Vucevic or another stud center on DraftKings, but he’s the easy choice at the position on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Most of the top center options stand out as better values on DraftKings, but Andre Drummond is an exception. He owns a Bargain Rating of 71% on FanDuel, which is the top mark at the position. His average of 1.48 FanDuel points per minute trails only Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid among today’s centers, but he is significantly cheaper than both players. Drummond is also in an excellent spot vs. the Nets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.20. His ownership should also be lower than usual, which makes him an interesting pivot off of Cousins in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) tournaments.
Richaun Holmes is a nice buy-low candidate at $6,300 on DraftKings. He has posted a negative Plus/Minus in two of his past three games — but it hasn’t been due to a lack of playing time. Holmes has averaged 35.7 minutes over his past five contests, and he’s played at least 30.5 minutes in all five games. Moreover, Holmes is the type of player who is capable of averaging well over 1.00 DraftKings points per minute.
