The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Ja Morant hasn’t had the best sophomore season, but he’s been limited to an average of 30.3 minutes per game due to injuries. That said, he’s started to turn the corner. He’s recorded at least 39.6 FanDuel points in three of his past four games, including at least 42.4 in each of his past two. He’s in a great spot for success tonight vs. the Pistons, who rank just 22nd in defensive efficiency.
Morant stands out as an excellent value at $7,100 on FanDuel, given his Bargain Rating of 75%.
Value
Delon Wright continues to carry a massive workload for the Pistons. He’s coming off 38.5 minutes in his last game, and he’s averaged 37.4 minutes over his past six outings. Wright has also upped his efficiency recently, increasing his production to 1.03 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That combination makes him a nice option at $6,100 on DraftKings, where his salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%.
Fast Break
Kemba Walker has a chance to carry a larger workload than usual for the Celtics. Jaylen Brown is currently questionable with a knee injury, and Walker would be one of the biggest beneficiaries if he’s ultimately ruled out. Walker has increased his usage rate by a team-high +6.4% with Brown off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.05 FanDuel points per minute.
Michael Carter-Williams has posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in all three games since returning from injury, and he should continue to handle most of the point-guard minutes in Orlando. He’s currently projected for 29.5 minutes in our NBA Models and has averaged 0.90 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Shooting guard is a bit thin at the top tonight, but Fred VanVleet stands out as one of the possible exceptions. Kyle Lowry has been upgraded from doubtful to questionable, but VanVleet would be one of the biggest beneficiaries if he’s unable to suit up. He’s increased his usage rate by +3.2% with Lowry off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.15 DraftKings points per minute. VanVleet has also led the team with an average of 37.1 minutes per game in four games without Lowry.
VanVleet also has an excellent matchup tonight vs. the Timberwolves, who rank just 21st in defensive efficiency.
Value
Seth Curry is simply too cheap at $4,000 on FanDuel. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%, and he’s coming off a massive 35.9 FanDuel-point performance in his last outing. Curry is capable of filling it up from deep, so he has the potential for those kinds of outings when his shot is falling. Overall, he has averaged 0.73 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s played at least 34.5 minutes in four straight games.
Fast Break
Terence Davis hasn’t been particularly involved for the Raptors recently, but that could change if Lowry is ruled out tonight. He’s projected for 19.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which is making him pop at the absolute minimum on DraftKings. He’s averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.80 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool).
Khris Middleton is an interesting buy-low target on tonight’s slate. His price has come way down across the industry, but his $7,300 salary on FanDuel is particularly appealing. He owns a Bargain Rating of 75%, and Middleton has averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.03 with a comparable price tag since the start of last season. The Bucks also lead the slate with an implied team total of 121 points.
Small Forward
Stud
Like Walker, Jayson Tatum is another player who would benefit from the absence of Brown. He’s increased his usage rate by +4.9% with Brown off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.36 DKFP per minute. That kind of production would make him underpriced at $8,800 on DraftKings, where his salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.
Value
The Cavaliers basically have no choice but to rely on Cedi Osman for huge minutes vs. the Nuggets. Larry Nance Jr. and Kevin Love remain out of the lineup with injuries, while Andre Drummond will not suit up while the team looks for a trade partner. Taurean Prince will also miss his second-straight game with an ankle injury.
Osman logged 35.2 minutes with Prince out of the lineup on Monday, and he responded with 36.0 FanDuel points. He’s averaged 0.82 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he can do some damage when given the chance to play big minutes. He’s underpriced across the industry, but his $4,200 salary on FanDuel is particularly egregious.
Fast Break
Michael Porter Jr. saw a slight bump in playing time in his last game, and he finished with 30.9 FanDuel points. He should continue to see a few additional minutes given the Nuggets injury situation — Gary Harris and Paul Millsap are out, Will Barton is questionable — and MPJ has averaged 1.02 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Andrew Wiggins stands out as one of the best values at the position on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $6,000, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 88%. He got off to a slow start this season, but he’s increased his production to 0.96 DraftKings points per minute. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in three of his past four games, yet his salary has actually decreased over that time frame.
Power Forward
Stud
The only thing that can stop Giannis Antetokounmpo right now is a lack of minutes in a potential blowout. That’s definitely a possible scenario tonight vs. the Thunder — the Bucks are favored by 10.5 points — but they haven’t been nearly as dominant as they’ve been the past two seasons.
Giannis also has an elite ceiling if this game stays competitive. He finished with 74.75 DraftKings points vs. the Thunder just three games ago, and he leads the position in Pro Trends on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s been the safest investment in fantasy recently, scoring at least 53.0 DraftKings points in seven of his past nine games.
Value
JaMychal Green should continue to see a few additional minutes for the Nuggets with Millsap out of the lineup. He’s started each of the past two games for Denver, and he’s logged at least 28.5 minutes in both contests. Green has averaged 0.91 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s coming off 35.0 FanDuel points in his last contest. He’s underpriced at just $4,200.
Fast Break
Jerami Grant has been the focal point of the Pistons’ offense recently, and that doesn’t figure to change with Derrick Rose and Blake Griffin no longer in the rotation. He’s played at least 37.8 minutes in back-to-back games, and he finished with 45.4 FanDuel points in his last outing. His price has decreased by -$800 over the past month on FanDuel, so he’s a strong value.
Draymond Green is currently listed as questionable, but he’s majorly underpriced on DraftKings if he’s able to suit up. His $6,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%, and he’s seen a spike in playing time with James Wiseman and Kevon Looney out of the lineup. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.16 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and he’s increased his production to 1.00 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Center
Stud
It’s going to be tough to ignore Nikola Jokic tonight for the shorthanded Nuggets. He’s been forced to pick up the slack for the team recently, and he’s responded with at least 57.75 DraftKings in each of his past four games and eight of his past 10.
His average of 1.68 DraftKings points per minute is tied with Giannis’ for the top mark on the slate, but Jokic has a better shot at eclipsing that figure tonight. The Cavaliers have been the worst defensive team in the league this season, so Jokic should be able to have his way with them.
Value
Willy Hernangomez has been a solid role player for the Pelicans this season, and he’s going to get the opportunity to play more minutes with Steven Adams out of the lineup. He dominated in his last game without Adams, finishing with 33.75 DKFP over 29 minutes, and he’s averaged an impressive 1.08 DKFP per minute this season.
Fast Break
Pascal Siakam has center eligibility on DraftKings, where is where he’s more appealing tonight. He’s priced at just $7,700, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.68 over his past 10 games. He’s averaged 43.0 DraftKings points in two games without Lowry this season, so he would be an elite option if Lowry is ultimately ruled out.
Nikola Vucevic is almost always in play, and tonight’s matchup vs. the Warriors is no exception. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.70 is also one of the better marks at the position. He’s also projected for just 5-8% ownership, which makes him a very interesting contrarian option.
Pictured: Cedi Osman
Credit: Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images
