Friday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET. Using the FantasyLabs NBA Player Models tool, here’s a break down of the top DFS plays for each position on tonight’s slate.
Point Guard
Stud
Friday’s matchup between the Wizards and the Pelicans should be a good one for fantasy purposes. Neither of these teams is particularly good defensively, and the Wizards have also played at the fastest pace in the league. Add it all up, and the total on this game sits at a slate-high 242.5 points.
Russell Westbrook has also been a fantasy monster recently. He’s posted a triple-double in 10 of his past 11 games, and he’s scored at least 55.75 DraftKings points in each of his past six contests. He stands out as an elite option to pay up for on a slate with plenty of value.
Value
The Pistons are going to be without Jerami Grant, Mason Plumlee, Cory Joseph, Dennis Smith Jr., Wayne Ellington, and Rodney McGruder for Friday’s matchup vs. the Thunder. That opens up a ton of playing time for the rest of the roster.
They have three players who should split the point guard minutes pretty evenly: Saben Lee, Killian Hayes, and Frank Jackson. Of that trio, Lee has been the best from a fantasy perspective recently. He’s averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s also dirt cheap at just $3,100 on DraftKings. That makes him my preferred target of the group.
Fast Break
Ja Morant is an interesting option if you’re not paying up for Westbrook. He’s significantly cheaper across the industry, and he has an excellent matchup vs. the Bulls. Morant owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.40 on FanDuel, and he’s averaged 1.10 FanDuel points per minute this season.
The Raptors are another team that is going to be extremely thin today. Fred VanVleet is expected to return to the lineup, but Kyle Lowry, OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, and Gary Trent Jr. have already been ruled out or listed as doubtful. That means Malachi Flynn should continue to carry a huge workload. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +10.13 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and his $5,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 84%.
Shooting Guard
Stud
There are definitely some blowout concerns with the Hornets tonight, who are currently listed as 12-point underdogs vs. the Nets. That said, Terry Rozier has massive upside if this game stays competitive. He logged more than 43.2 minutes in their last game, and the Hornets are going to be even thinner vs. Brooklyn.
Devonte’ Graham will join LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward on the sidelines, and P.J. Washington is listed as doubtful. Rozier has increased his usage rate by +9.6% with all four players off the court, resulting in an average of 1.21 DraftKings points per minute.
Value
The Nuggets were dealt a huge blow with Jamal Murray suffering a torn ACL, and Monte Morris is one of the guys who is going to have to pick up the slack. He’s been playing limited minutes due to a quad injury, but he’s going to have to play more with the Nuggets’ starting point guard on the shelf. He’s increased his production to 0.87 DraftKings points per minute with Murray off the court this season, so he’s an appealing option at just $3,700.
Fast Break
VanVleet has missed each of the past seven games for the Raptors, so it’s possible that he’s limited in his first game back. However, VanVleet is carried one of the largest workloads in the league this season, so limited minutes for him is the same as a normal workload for most players. He’s currently projected for 33.1 minutes in our NBA Models, and VanVleet has averaged a ridiculous 1.55 FanDuel points per minute with Lowry, Siakam, Anunoby, and Norman Powell off the court this season.
Sticking with the Raptors, Yuta Watanabe has SG eligibility on FanDuel and PF eligibility on DraftKings. That’s a weird mix, but let’s roll with it. Watanabe is priced at the minimum across the industry, and he’s currently projected for 25.6 minutes. Historically, min-priced players with a comparable minute projection have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.26 on FanDuel and +3.50 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool). Watanabe has also averaged 0.93 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he’s more productive than the typical min-priced player.
Small Forward
Stud
Luka Doncic has been a bit of a disaster recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus on DraftKings in 10 of his past 12 games. That makes him an interesting buy-low candidate on Friday. He carries too much risk for cash games, but he still possesses one of the highest ceilings in fantasy and should check in with minimal ownership. There’s enough value on today’s slate that you can easily pair him with another stud or two, which should give you a slightly different build for tournaments.
Value
Saddiq Bey is a solid bet to lead the Pistons in minutes on today’s slate. He played 35.3 minutes in their last game, and that was with Grant, Joseph, and Plumlee all in the lineup. He has a chance to play even more vs. the Thunder with all three players out of the lineup. Bey should also be productive with those minutes given his average of 0.91 DraftKings points with all of the currently unavailable members of the Pistons off the court this season.
Fast Break
Jimmy Butler is known as one of the most vindictive players in the league, so don’t be surprised if he has a little more motivation than usual for tonight’s matchup vs. the Timberwolves. Regardless, Butler has played some fantastic basketball this season. He’s done virtually everything for the Heat this season, resulting in an average of 1.36 FanDuel points per minute. The Timberwolves are also an excellent matchup, ranking just 27th in defensive efficiency.
Caleb Martin is another excellent source of value on today’s slate. He should play big minutes for the shorthanded Hornets, and there’s a chance that he replaces Graham in the starting lineup. He finished with 38.5 FanDuel points over 35.1 minutes the last time he entered the starting lineup, so he’s a potential steal at the minimum on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Stud
Zion Williamson has been fantastic in his second season, averaging 26.8 points per game on 61.8% shooting. He does the majority of his damage in the paint, with 73.6% of his field goal attempts coming within three feet of the rim. The Wizards are the ninth-worst team in terms of opponent field goal percentage at the rim, so Williamson should be able to do some damage in this matchup.
Value
The Bulls are another team that could provide some value on Friday. They aren’t dealing with a ton of absences – at least at the moment – but they will be without their top scorer in Zach LaVine. That means Lauri Markkanen should be asked to carry a larger offensive burden vs. the Grizzlies. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.9% with LaVine off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.92 DraftKings points per minute.
Fast Break
Daniel Theis is another potential value option for the Bulls. He’s simply too cheap across the industry, particularly in an elite matchup vs. the Grizzlies. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.54 is the second-highest mark at the power forward position.
Blake Griffin could be one of the biggest beneficiaries of LaMarcus Aldridge’s unfortunate retirement. He’s averaged 1.00 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he could play a few more minutes for the Nets moving forward.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic has become the odds-on favorite to win the MVP, and he’s been at his best this season with Murray out of the lineup. He’s averaged 56.43 DraftKings points in seven games without Murray this season, and he’s in a great spot Friday vs. the Rockets. They’ve dropped to just tied for 22nd in defensive efficiency on the year, and the Nuggets’ implied team total of 117.5 ranks fifth on the slate.
Value
The Pistons have a bunch of potential value options on today’s slate, but Isaiah Stewart might be the best. He’s averaged 27 minutes in four games without Plumlee this season, and he’s averaged 29.38 DraftKings points in those contests. He could see even more minutes today with some other key players out of the lineup, so Stewart is simply too cheap at $4,400 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Nikola Vucevic could fly a little bit under the radar on Friday. Most people will likely focus on Westbrook and Jokic as their studs, but Vucevic is in arguably just as good of a position. He has the potential to serve as the Bulls’ offensive focal point sans LaVine, and he leads the position with a whopping 15 Pro Trends on FanDuel. That’s not a mark that you see every day, and players with a comparable number of Pro Trends and salary have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.64.
Moses Brown cooled off a bit after a torrid stretch earlier this season, but he’s scored at least 37.0 FanDuel points in back-to-back games. Now, he gets an elite matchup vs. the Pistons, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.38. That makes him a very strong value option at just $5,400.
Pictured above: Nikola Vucevic #9 of the Chicago Bulls
Photo credit: Michael Hickey/Getty Images
