The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Trae Young has put together some big performances recently. He’s coming off 59.9 FanDuel points in his last game, and he has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five contests. That said, he remains priced down at just $9,700 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%.
He’s in a wonderful spot today vs. the Brooklyn Nets. They’ve struggled mightily vs. opposing point guards this season, giving Young an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.79. That’s the top mark at the position.
Value
Collin Sexton is an intriguing value option on FanDuel, where his $5,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He’s increased his fantasy production to 0.95 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 34.2 minutes in our NBA Models. Sexton is in a strong spot today vs. the Pelicans, who have played at the third-fastest pace this season. The total on this game currently sits at 236.5, which is the top mark on the slate.
Fast Break
The Thunder could be an interesting team to target today. They are on the second leg of a back-to-back, and they’re also 11.5-point underdogs vs. the Bucks. Still, the Bucks have played at the fastest pace this season, so they’ve been an excellent fantasy matchup in games that have stayed competitive. The Thunder will also be without Danilo Gallinari, which opens up some additional usage opportunities for the rest of the roster.
Bill Baptist/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Paul #3 of the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Chris Paul has been playing some of his best basketball recently, averaging 1.21 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He leads the position with 14 Pro Trends, and he’s seen the second-largest bump in fantasy production with Gallo off the court.
The Jazz are trying everything possible to get Mike Conley going offensively. They recently moved Joe Ingles to the bench in favor of Royce O’Neal, who will provide less competition with Conley for ball-handling responsibilities. Perhaps a matchup vs. the Jazz will be just what the doctor ordered. Conley owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.39 on DraftKings, and he has still averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s underpriced at $5,100.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Devin Booker is coming off just 25.0 FanDuel points in his last game, which makes him a strong buy-low candidate. His salary has decreased by $600 on FanDuel after that contest, and his current $7,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. He still played 39.2 minutes in his last game, and he’s projected for a position-high 37.1 minutes on today’s slate. That bodes well for his fantasy prospects moving forward.
Value
Dennis Schroder could be looking at a big workload today with Gallinari getting the night off. That would make him a very appealing fantasy target. He’s averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +4.3% with Gallo off the court this season. Schroder also owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.64 on DraftKings, and his salary across the industry is reasonable.
Fast Break
Kevin Huerter has been playing a ton of minutes recently, and he’s currently projected for 36.0 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s priced at just $4,700 on FanDuel, and it’s tough to pass up that much playing time at such a minimal price tag. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.84 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
Kyrie Irving will miss the rest of the season for the Nets, which means Caris LeVert should continue to provide value for fantasy. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +3.2% in games without Irving this season, resulting in an average of 1.08 FanDuel points per minute. He’s also seen a bump in playing time recently, logging at least 34.1 minutes in four of his past five games. Overall, LeVert has posted a dominant average Plus/Minus of +14.84 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, including 62.7 FanDuel points in his last game.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo has dominated all season, but he’s been particularly effective recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his past 10 games on FanDuel, and the only exception was a game where he played less than 25 minutes due to foul trouble. Basically, the only thing that can stop Giannis at this point is the bench.
Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) of the Milwaukee Bucks.
His recent success can be directly attributed to a boost in playing time. He’s been playing more minutes in blowouts — he’s logged at least 30.5 minutes in nine of his past 11 games — which greatly increases his floor. We already know he has the highest ceiling in fantasy, but that makes him much easier to trust in your lineups.
That said, make sure to monitor the news prior to lineup lock. Giannis is currently listed as probable, but there’s a chance he could get the night off after playing 38.0 minutes in his last game. You can get up-to-the-minute updates on Giannis and the rest of today’s players using the new Labs Insiders tool.
Value
The Jazz have significantly more upside than usual today given their matchup vs. the Wizards. They’re currently implied for 121.25 points, which is the second-highest mark on the slate. The Jazz have averaged just 111.0 points per game this season, so that represents a massive increase.
Bojan Bogdanovic stands out on FanDuel, where his $4,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s coming off a poor performance in his last contest, but he’s averaged 0.87 FanDuel points per minute this season and has played at least 33.4 minutes in five straight games.
Fast Break
Taurean Prince is another potential value option. He’s reasonably priced across the industry, and he’s in an excellent spot vs. the Hawks. The Nets are implied for 119.25 points, which ranks fifth on the slate.
Pascal Siakam is projected for modest ownership today, but he leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel. He also has one of the better individual matchups at the position vs. the Hornets, who rank merely 25th in defensive efficiency.
Power Forward
Stud
John Collins stands out today given his matchup vs. the Nets. They’ve struggled against opposing big men this season, giving Collins an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.63 on FanDuel. He’s also underpriced at just $8,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 80%, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +9.83 over his past 10 games. He owns 12 Pro Trends, which ranks second at the position.
Value
The Cavaliers could provide some value in the frontcourt vs. the Pelicans. They’ll be without Andre Drummond, which opens up some playing time for the rest of the big men.
That starts with Kevin Love, who leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel. He’s had a bit of a disappointing year, but he’s still averaged 1.10 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s currently projected for 33.4 minutes in our NBA Models, which gives him a great chance at returning value at $6,200.
Larry Nance Jr. should also see a healthy amount of minutes off the bench. He’s played at least 30.8 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s unsurprisingly posted a Plus/Minus of at least +10.33 in each of those contests. Nance has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +11.57 with a comparable salary and minute projection, making him one of the best values of the day.
Fast Break
Bruno Fernando is coming off 25.3 FanDuel points over 21.8 minutes in his last game, and he’s projected for a similar workload today. He’s averaged 0.96 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he’s capable of making the most out of his playing time. He’s very reasonably priced across the industry, and he benefits from the same elite matchup as Collins.
Christian Wood has been one of the best producers at the PF position this season, averaging 1.27 DraftKings points per minute. He’s been playing plenty of minutes following the trade of Drummond, and he leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his past nine games, and his price remains reasonable at $7,200.
Center
Stud
Have you been watching Love is Blind on Netflix? If you haven’t, you should. It takes all the drama from standard reality dating shows and supersizes it, forcing people to get engaged after less then a week. To make things even better, they have to do this without ever laying eyes on the person they’re planning to marry.
Nikola Jokic is basically the NBA DFS equivalent. Rostering him on most nights is a complete guessing game. He’s scored as many as 79.25 DraftKings points and as few as 34.25 DraftKings points over his past seven games, and his matchup doesn’t appear to matter.
Credit: Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Nikola Jokic
For what it’s worth, he is in a solid spot today vs. the Clippers. They’ve struggled against opposing centers this season, giving Jokic an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.42. His salary has also decreased by -$600 over the past month on DraftKings, and he leads the position with 12 Pro Trends. I never feel comfortable rostering Jokic in cash games, but he has some appeal in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
If you’re looking to go super-cheap at center, you could do a lot worse than Nerlens Noel. He’s priced at just $3,200 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 89%, and he could see a few additional minutes today with Gallinari out of the lineup. He also owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.82 vs. the Bucks.
Fast Break
Deandre Ayton has been carrying one of the largest workloads at the center position recently. He’s logged at least 35.3 minutes in four of his past five games, and he leads all centers with 36.2 projected minutes on today’s slate. He’s also been one of the most productive centers on a per-minute basis over the past month, which is an appealing combination.
Rudy Gobert stands out on FanDuel, where his $7,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 84%. He’s struggled recently — his fantasy production has fallen to 0.99 FanDuel points per minute over the past month — but he’s in a potential smash spot vs. the Wizards. They rank dead-last in team rebound rate, giving Gobert an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.70.
Photo credit: Todd Kirkland-Getty Images
Pictured: Jazz C Rudy Gobert (27)
