The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a nine-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Luka Doncic was forced to miss seven straight games with an ankle injury, but he returned to the Mavs’ lineup in their final game before the All-Star break. He showed no signs of rust in that contest, scoring 33 points with 12 rebounds and eight assists.
He continues to absolutely dominate from a fantasy perspective, averaging 1.75 FanDuel points per minute. Only Zion Williamson has been a better per-minute producer on today’s slate, and he’s obviously done it over a much smaller sample size.
Pictured: Dallas Mavericks G Luka Doncic (77), Photo Credit: Glenn James-NBAE via Getty Images
Doncic is underpriced at just $10,300 on FanDuel. His price has decreased by -$900 over the past month, and his current salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. That said, he’s in a brutal spot today vs. the Magic, who have played at the third-slowest pace this season. Overall, Doncic owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.24, which is one of the worst marks at the position.
Value
The Blazers are going to be an elite team to target today. Not only are they playing the Pelicans — which has been one of the best matchups in fantasy this season — but they will also be without star point guard Damian Lillard. He leads the team with a usage rate of 30.6%, which opens up plenty of opportunities for the rest of the roster.
Anfernee Simons stands out at just $3,500 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 96%. He’s increased his usage rate by +3.2% with Lillard off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.79 DraftKings points per minute. He’s currently projected for 32.6 minutes in our NBA Models, which should be more than enough playing time for him to pay off his current salary.
Fast Break
Shabazz Napier is another potential value option. He’s been awesome over the past month, averaging 1.16 DraftKings points per minute, and he has the potential to play more with the Wizards than he was with the Timberwolves. He also owns an excellent matchup vs. the Cavaliers, who rank dead-last in defensive efficiency.
Lonzo Ball has been an excellent source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.54 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s carried a big workload over that time frame, playing at least 32.8 minutes in each of his past seven games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of those contests. He’s underpriced at just $6,300 on FanDuel given his average of 1.08 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Wizards have been pretty bad this season, but Bradley Beal deserved to be an All-Star. He’s averaged 29.1 points per game this season, and no one in league history has averaged as many points and not been an All-Star:
Bradley Beal will officially head into the All-Star break averaging 29.1 points per game, the most ever for a non All-Star.
— Fred Katz (@FredKatz) February 13, 2020
Beal is also averaging a career-best 6.2 assists per game this season, resulting in an average of 46.35 DraftKings points per game.
He’s in a nice spot today vs. the Cavaliers. The Wizards’ implied team total of 121.0 points ranks third on the slate, and Beal has averaged a Plus/Minus of +9.77 on DraftKings in four games with an implied team total of at least 120 points this season (per the Trends tool).
Value
C.J. McCollum isn’t exactly priced like a value at $6,900 on FanDuel and $6,600 on DraftKings, but he has the potential to be one of the best plays on the entire slate. He’s unsurprisingly been a usage monster with Lillard off the court this season, increasing his usage rate by a team-high +8.0%.
He has averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute in that situation, and he’s currently projected for 40 minutes in our NBA Models. That’s a really appealing combination of increased volume and per-minute efficiency.
McCollum also benefits from the same elite matchup as Simons, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.02 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
The Blazers aren’t the only team dealing with an injury at the moment. The Celtics will be without Kemba Walker, which increases the value for the rest of the roster. Marcus Smart stands out on FanDuel at just $5,400 given his Bargain Rating of 93%. He’s averaged 36.83 FanDuel points in six games without Walker this season, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +13.6.
R.J. Barrett has had a bit of a disappointing rookie campaign, but he reminded everyone of his talent during the Rising Stars game. Hopefully the Knicks’ coaching staff was paying attention and starts playing him a few additional minutes. They may not have a choice today if Elfrid Payton and Wayne Ellington are unable to suit up. Both players are currently listed as questionable, so make sure to monitor their statuses using the new Labs Insiders tool.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James stands out in his own tier at the small forward position. He’s $2,000 more expensive than the second-priciest option on FanDuel and $2,700 more expensive than the second-priciest option on DraftKings. He’s one of the safest options in fantasy for cash games, owning a Consistency Rating of 90% over the past month on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
LeBron is in a great spot today vs. the Grizzlies, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.65 on FanDuel. The Grizzlies have played at the fifth-fastest pace this season, and the Lakers’ implied team total of 122.5 points ranks first on the slate. His 13 Pro Trends are also tied for the most at the position on FanDuel.
Value
The Blazers offer a pair of interesting value options at the SF position. Carmelo Anthony is the preferred target on FanDuel, where his $4,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%. He’s increased his usage rate by +5.5% with Lillard off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.87 FanDuel points per minute.
Gary Trent stands out on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 82%. He hasn’t been as effective as Melo on a per-minute basis, but he’s projected for 33.1 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.22 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
The Celtics are another team that offers multiple options at the small forward position. Jaylen Brown has seen the largest usage bump on the team in games without Walker this season, resulting in an average of 32.13 FanDuel points per game. He’s underpriced at just $5,700 on FanDuel. Gordon Hayward has averaged more points per game that Brown in that situation, and the price discrepancy between the two players isn’t as large on DraftKings. That could make Hayward the preferred option there.
Mike Conley will get the night off for the Jazz, which will likely resort in Royce O’Neal moving into the starting lineup. He started and played 38.9 minutes with Conley out of the lineup in their last game, which is a lot of potential playing time at just $3,300.
He didn’t exactly dominate in that performance, scoring just 18.25 DraftKings points, but that was still enough to post a positive Plus/Minus. O’Neal has also averaged 0.68 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he has the potential for a bigger performance today.
Power Forward
Stud
Zion Williamson has started to play more minutes for the Pelicans, which is obviously good for his fantasy prospects moving forward. He’s scored at least 40.7 FanDuel points in each of his past two games, and he’s posted a usage rate of at least 36.4% in both contests.
Layne Murdoch Jr./NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Zion Williamson #1 of the New Orleans Pelicans.
That includes a 50.3 FanDuel-point performance vs. the Blazers, and he’ll have another crack at the Blazers today. It’s an excellent matchup, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.98 on FanDuel. Williamson is also underpriced on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
Michael Porter Jr. has missed each of the past six games for the Nuggets, but he’s expected to be back in the lineup today. He posted an average Plus/Minus of +13.33 over his previous 10 games on FanDuel, so he has appeal if he’s able to suit up. The Nuggets will also potentially be without Will Barton, so Porter could step right back into a big role.
Fast Break
The Raptors are still without Marc Gasol, so Serge Ibaka should continue to see an expanded workload. He’s currently projected for 33.6 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 1.16 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. Ibaka has unsurprisingly thrived given an increased workload recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.69 over his past 10 games on FanDuel.
Jayson Tatum has been tremendous recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.90 over the past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s also seen a massive boost in production in games without Walker this season, leading the team with an average of 40.22 DraftKings points per game. He’s one of the best values of the day on DraftKings, where his $7,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Center
Stud
Hassan Whiteside has posted a negative Plus/Minus in back-to-back games, which makes him an elite buy-low target on FanDuel. His salary has decreased by-$1,100 over the past month, and his current $8,500 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
The Pelicans aren’t as good of a matchup for big men as they are for guards — Whiteside owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.18 on FanDuel — but this is simply too cheap for him. Whiteside has averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.56 with a comparable salary this season.
Value
James Johnson has center eligibility on DraftKings, and his move to Minnesota has the potential to be great for his fantasy value. He was buried on the depth chart in Miami, so his path to playing time is much clearer with the Timberwolves. They will also be without Karl-Anthony Towns for today’s matchup vs. the Celtics, so Johnson has the potential to handle more minutes than usual. He’s coming off 32.3 minutes in his last contest, and he responded with 29.75 DraftKings points.
Fast Break
Nerlens Noel is priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, and he has some appeal at the absolute minimum. He’s averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to potentially pay off his salary. He’s also in a great spot vs. the Nuggets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.98.
Photo credit: Cameron Browne/NBAE via Getty Images
Pictured: Blazers SG C.J. McCollum (3)
