NBA DFS Breakdown (Friday, 12/20): Load up on the Raptors

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Friday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Point Guard

Stud

Kyle Lowry has the potential to carry a massive workload for the Raptors today. Pascal Siakam, Norman Powell, and Marc Gasol have all been ruled out, while Fred VanVleet is questionable. That’s a going to open up a lot of shot attempts and minutes for the rest of the roster.

Lowry stands out as one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +12.4% with Siakam and Powell off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.31 DraftKings points per minute.

Toronto also benefits from one of the best possible matchups vs. the Washington Wizards. They rank third in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency, and the Raptors’ implied team total of 117.75 ranks first on the slate by a comfortable margin.

Lowry owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.82 on FanDuel, where his $8,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 77%.

Value

The Pistons are another potential source of value today. Christian Wood has already been ruled out, while Blake Griffin and Luke Kennard are doubtful.

Derrick Rose will likely serve as their offensive focal point if Griffin and Kennard are ultimately unable to suit up. He leads the team with a usage rate of 34.0% with all three injured players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.37 DraftKings points per minute.

Langston Galloway should also see an uptick in playing time, making him an appealing punt play at just $3,300 on DraftKings. He’s currently projected for 29.8 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable price tags and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.44 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).

Fast Break

Kemba Walker has increased his fantasy production to 1.32 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 41.5 FanDuel points in each of his past three games. The Celtics have the potential to be shorthanded again — Marcus Smart is out, Gordon Hayward is questionable — and Walker has averaged 1.41 FanDuel points per minute with both players off the court this season.

Markelle Fultz has one of the best individual matchups at the position, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.30 vs. the Portland Trail Blazers. He’s increased his fantasy production to 0.94 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s coming off more than 30 minutes of playing time in his last contest. He’s a strong value at $4,700 on FanDuel.

Shooting Guard

Stud

Jimmy Butler has seen a price decrease of -$800 over the past month on FanDuel, which makes him an awesome buy-low target vs. the Knicks. The Knicks have unsurprisingly been one of the worst defensive teams in basketball this season, and Miami’s implied team total of 112.75 ranks third on the slate.

Butler should continue to benefit from the Heat’s current injury situation as well. Justise Winslow remains out, while Goran Dragic is listed as questionable. Butler’s 12 Pro Trends also rank third at the SG position.

Value

Evan Fournier looks like an absolute steal at $5,200 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 98%. He owns 13 Pro Trends, and players with a comparable salary and number of Pro Trends have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.92. The Magic are getting healthier, but Fournier should still see a healthy amount of playing time and has averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute this season.

Fast Break

Buddy Hield stands out at just $6,400 on DraftKings. He’s struggled over his past two games, but he’s still posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.39 over his past 10 contests. De’Aaron Fox returned to the lineup on Wednesday — which will ultimately hurt Hield in the long run — but he’s expected to be on a minute restriction today in the first leg of a back-to-back.

Bogdan Bogdanovic is also listed as questionable, and his absence would give Hield a significant bump in value. Regardless, he has a nice matchup today vs. the Blazers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.10 on DraftKings.

If Fred VanVleet is able to make his return to the lineup today, he would be a very interesting option at just $7,100 on FanDuel. His price tag results in a Bargain Rating of 94%, and the Raptors might have no choice but to throw him right into the fire given their current injury situation. He was carrying one of the largest workloads in basketball prior to his injury.

Small Forward

Stud

Injuries are the theme of the day, and Karl-Anthony Towns is another player to monitor heading into lineup lock. Luckily, Justin Phan and the FantasyLabs NBA news team just rolled out a new tool that allows you to monitor his status. If anything changes, you’ll be able to adapt in real-time.

If Towns is unable to suit up, Andrew Wiggins would become one of the top overall plays of the day. He played nearly 42 minutes without Towns in their last contest and ultimately responded with 38.75 DraftKings points.

He didn’t play particularly well in that contest — he shot just 9-23 from the field — so he has upside for a bigger performance today. Overall, he has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute in three games without Towns this season while leading the team with a usage rate of 29.6%.

Value

OG Anunoby should be asked to play big minutes today for the Raptors. He’s already seen a pretty healthy workload recently, but he’s projected for 36.8 minutes today given the injuries to Powell, Siakam, and Gasol. He’s averaged 0.87 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he’s capable of taking advantage of an increased role.

Fast Break

The Warriors have been an absolute disaster this season, but someone has to score the ball for them. Alec Burks has filled that role recently, scoring at least 31.0 FanDuel points in four of his past five games. The Warriors have an outstanding matchup today vs. the Pelicans, which makes Burks an appealing option at his middling price tag across the industry.

Jaylen Brown would be another member of the Celtics who would get a bump if Hayward is unable to suit up. He posted a usage rate of 29.3% with Hayward out of the lineup in their last contest — which was his third-highest mark of the season — and responded with 39.8 FanDuel points. He’s a particularly strong target at $6,800 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 75%.

Power Forward

Stud

Kristaps Porzingis has been asked to pick up the scoring burden with Luka Doncic out of the lineup recently, and he’s fared admirably in that role so far. He’s scored at least 49.8 FanDuel points in each of his first three games without Doncic.

That said, he’s seen a pretty significant price increase across the industry, and he owns a brutal matchup today vs. the Philadelphia 76ers. They rank sixth in defensive efficiency this season, and they’ve also played at a below-average pace. The Mavs are currently implied for just 102 points, which is the second-lowest mark on the slate.

The matchup makes Porzingis far from a must-play, but it could work in his favor for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He should command lower ownership and still owns one of the top ceiling projections at the position.

Value

The Raptors own a pair of really appealing options at the PF position. Serge Ibaka is far from a “value” at $7,400 on FanDuel, but he still stands out as one of the best plays of the day. He’s been excellent on a per-minute basis over the past month, averaging 1.20 FanDuel points per minute, and he has the potential to play over 30 minutes in this contest.

That should lead to a ton of success vs. the Wizards, who have been crushed on the boards in addition to on the defensive end of the court. Overall, he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.70 on FanDuel.

That said, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson might be the better pure value. He hasn’t been as good as Ibaka, but he’s still averaged 0.97 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s projected for a comparable workload in our NBA Models, and he’s priced near the minimum at $3,600 on FanDuel and $4,100 on DraftKings.

Playing both guys together is definitely a viable strategy.

Fast Break

Markieff Morris has SF eligibility on FanDuel and PF/C eligibility on DraftKings, and he’s a strong option regardless of where you choose to play him. He struggled in his last contest, but he should see a much larger workload if Wood and Griffin are both unable to suit up. He’s averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his matchup vs. the Celtics results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.01.

Aaron Gordon has been priced down to just $5,600 on FanDuel, which represents a massive decrease compared to his peak. He owns a Bargain Rating of 95%, which makes him a nice buy-low target vs. the Blazers.

Center

Stud

Andre Drummond appears to be fully recovered from his avocado injury, and he scored 51.6 FanDuel points over 37.2 minutes in his last contest. That continues his trend of strong production in games without Griffin this season. He’s averaged 50.54 DraftKings points over 12 games with Griffin out of the lineup, and the Pistons have very little depth behind him with Wood also on the shelf. He could be asked to carry a huge workload today vs. the Celtics.

It’s a difficult matchup — Drummond owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -3.40 on FanDuel — but Drummond has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.69 when facing the Celtics. It’s hard to put to much stock into that since this is a completely different team without Al Horford, but Drummond should still have the advantage vs. whoever he’s matched up with. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel.

Value

Chris Boucher could grab a handful of Gasol’s minutes at the center position, which makes him an interesting punt play at $3,300 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to potentially return value.

Fast Break

Nikola Vucevic has an absolute dream matchup vs. the Blazers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.05 on FanDuel. His $7,700 price tag also comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%, which makes him an appealing option for GPPs. He hasn’t been too limited since returning from injury, logging at least 32.8 minutes in each of his past two games.

Tristan Thompson was priced up at $7,700 on FanDuel just last week, which makes his current $6,200 salary feel like a massive bargain. His production has been a bit down recently, but he is coming off 36.5 minutes in his last outing. He’s in a major pace-up spot today vs. the Memphis Grizzlies, which makes him an interesting buy-low candidate.

Photo Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: Raptors PF Serge Ibaka (9)