The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Damian Lillard was always bound to slow down some. Dame was red-hot to start the season, averaging 33.0 points and 6.8 assists over the first 10 games, including a 60-point game to punctuate his MVP-level start. Lillard hasn’t been bad since then; he just hasn’t been totally unstoppable. Dame’s numbers in the 10 games since: 20.2 points and 8.0 assists a game in a more egalitarian (read: Carmelo Anthony is jacking shots now) Portland offense.
Lillard’s fantasy salary still hasn’t faded from his scorching start, so he’s underperformed expectations in seven of his last 10 games. Add in a tough game against the Lakers and our models give Dame a negative Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel. He’s a better play at DraftKings at +2.33 with 11 Pro Trends. Either way, you may want to pay for studs at another position today.
Value
Remember Chris Paul? He’s more like a Point Demigod than The Point God at this point, but while his scoring is irregular, he still posts healthy assists, rebound and steal numbers and remains a safe fantasy option, albeit with a lower ceiling. CP3 should benefit from a matchup against the Wolves, whose defense is improved but still not doing much to shut down opposing point guards.
Fast Break
If you’re playing DraftKings, Eric Bledsoe is your guy. Bledsoe is scoring 1.21 fantasy points per minute, and at $6,200 our models give him a +5.1 Projected Plus/Minus. Bledsoe has had a hard time finding his scoring lately but could take on more of the load if Giannis Antetokounmpo has his hands full with the Clippers’ star wing defenders.
Would you believe that Spencer Dinwiddie is the second-most expensive point guard option at FanDuel on a 10-game slate? Believe it, and believe that he’s a good play even at that cost. Dinwiddie has been a stud with Kyrie Irving sidelined, putting up 24.9 points and 7.1 dimes a game for a hot Nets team. His +2.61 Projected Plus/Minus is tops among point guards at FanDuel tonight.
Shooting Guard
Studs
Bradley Beal continues to rock and roll for the Wizards. At 28.6 points, 4.7 rebounds and 7.0 assists a game for the season, Beal has become one of the more stable fantasy options out there. He has an 87% Consistency Rating and is typically a valuable investment even at a stud salary.
Beal is a much better play on DraftKings tonight, where his $8,600 salary gives him an 88% Bargain Rating. Beal is scoring 1.28 fantasy points per minute and carrying a huge usage load for Washington. He has a whopping +5.18 Projected Plus/Minus at DK.
Value
Your other stud option might be an even better play. That would be Jimmy Butler, who continues to have a great under-the-radar year for the surprising Heat. Butler has finally found his scoring touch and had his most points yet for Miami with 37 last time out, plus a triple-double the game before that for back-to-back 50-point fantasy games. Butler’s value is up with Goran Dragic out and he’d only be more valuable if Justise Winslow sits, too. Butler is over a +4.0 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Fast Break
Shooting guard looks like a good place to spend tonight, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is another strong option. SGA has slowed down after a hot start, under expectations in six of his last eight, but that means he comes at a bargain salary. A matchup with Minnesota’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.58 should help, and he’s a top-three option at both sites with a Projected Plus/Minus over +4.0 on both.
Doesn’t it feel like it’s been awhile since a huge Lou Williams game? Williams has tournament-winning potential if it’s one of those Sweet Lou nights, and he’ll have a good opportunity on a night when his star teammates may be more concerned with guarding Antetokounmpo. The Bucks have a surprising +1.89 Opponent Plus/Minus at shooting guard, so Lou is an interesting pivot play if you avoid the top names and want similar upside.
Small Forward
Studs
Speaking of Giannis Antetokounmpo, our models aren’t exactly bearish on him against Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. In a potential Finals preview that somehow isn’t on TV, all eyes will be on the reigning MVP. Giannis continues to put up ungodly numbers, averaging an insane 1.88 fantasy points per minute. He gets a +7.13 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel even at his $12,300 salary and an even more unfathomable +9.03 at DraftKings, where he’s $1,000 cheaper. If you’re fading Antetokounmpo, you’re doing so at your own risk, counting on the Clippers to make a big statement on the road.
LeBron James and his 1.58 fantasy points per minute look almost paltry next to Giannis’ mark, but he should be in for a big night himself. Not that James really needs any help, but Portland’s defense is not going to do much to slow him down with a +2.48 Opponent Plus/Minus. James hasn’t had a triple-double in eight games and doesn’t quite have change-everything upside anymore, so he’s more of a pay-for-what-you-get option. He has a top-five Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
You have to believe a whole lot of lineups will have either Giannis or LeBron in them tonight. You can’t really go wrong with either, but is one of them more right? Our models think Antetokounmpo is worth the extra dough if you can swing it.
Value
If you pivot completely away from LeBron and Giannis, our models like Jonathan Isaac as the top moderate play. He has a top-three small forward Projected Plus/Minus at over +4.75 at both sites. Isaac benefits from a nice matchup in Cleveland and a potential usage boost with a bunch of Orlando injuries. He’s had surprising upside at times this year.
Fast Break
Justise Winslow could be another strong option, but he’s questionable with a back injury, so make sure he’s cleared before playing him. Winslow gets to handle the ball a lot more with Dragic sidelined, and he also gets a boost from Washington’s +1.69 Opponent Plus/Minus and league-worst defense. If Winslow does look like a full go, he’s a very intriguing bargain play pivot if you fade Giannis and LeBron and look elsewhere at small forward.
Josh Okogie has gone over expectations in seven of 11 games, but he’s still below $4,000 at both sites. He’s not exactly a tournament winner, but he comes with a Projected Plus/Minus over +3.75 at both sites if you need a cheap option. He’s an even stronger play if Wiggins (questionable) ends up sitting.
Power Forward
Studs
If you’re not playing LeBron, you should probably find a way to get Anthony Davis into your lineup. The Lakers continue to roll through the NBA, and Portland’s defense, or lack thereof, is not likely to slow them down. Portland offers a +3.01 Opponent Plus/Minus to opposing power forwards, so Brow has a +4.3 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel. He’s an even better play at +5.46 on DraftKings and has a whopping 14 Pro Trends at both sites.
Like LeBron, Davis has been more of a pay-what-you-get option in DFS. His upside typically tops out around the 50s or low 60s as the two tend to mute each other from gigantic tournament-winning nights, but they’re both strong reliable plays in cash games.
Value
If you’ve been playing DFS this week, you probably already know to keep riding Rui Hachimura. The Wizards are all sorts of banged up with Thomas Bryant, C.J. Miles and Jordan McRae out, while Isaiah Thomas and others remain limited. Hachimura has gone over expectations in four straight, averaging 22.0 points and 7.5 rebounds during that stretch and a big uptick in usage and shots. His salary hasn’t caught up yet, so he should keep on rolling and has a +4.0 Projected Plus/Minus or higher at both sites.
Fast Break
Speaking of those banged-up Wizards, you’d be wise to consider Bam Adebayo against them. Washington’s interior defense may actually be a little better with Bryant out, but it still won’t be good. Big men against Wizards have been one of the safest bets of the season, and Bam is over a +4.5 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Domantas Sabonis is an intriguing pivot. Sabonis gets a 92% Leverage Score, and he’s a 78% Bargain Rating at DraftKings with a +3.92 Projected Plus/Minus there. Sabonis has been excellent in three games against Detroit this season, averaging 21.7 points and 13.7 rebounds a game.
Center
Studs
With so many stud options on the table, our models are not loving Karl-Anthony Towns tonight. Towns has a 92% Consistency Rating and is averaging a reliable 51.2 fantasy points a game, but he has lacked huge upside with no 60-point fantasy games in over a month. Towns has a -2.68 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel; he’s simply overpriced at his $11,000 salary that implies almost 51 points, leaving little room for upside.
Towns is a bit cheaper at DraftKings but still has a negative Projected Plus/Minus. Do keep an eye on the Wiggins news, though. If he’s out, there’s a chance for a monster Towns usage night in a very plus matchup with a +3.67 Opponent Plus/Minus in Oklahoma City. Our models give KAT over a 95% Leverage Score at both sites. If you gamble on his upside while everyone’s playing other superstars, he could be a tournament winner.
Value
Somehow our models love… Bismack Biyombo?! Biyombo has exceeded projections in seven of 10 games, and he’s in a great spot against a Nets defense with a +3.89 Opponent Plus/Minus for centers. Biyombo has a low floor but quality upside in a great matchup, and his +3.4 Projected Plus/Minus leads all centers at FanDuel tonight.
Fast Break
The Hornets haven’t exactly been shutting down opposing centers either, so DeAndre Jordan looks like a good option. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.46, and he’s over a +1.8 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites. With few great center options on the board, he’s a playable option.
So is Kelly Olynyk. Olynyk is another option against the Wizards, and you know by now you pretty much always want at least one or two players against Washington. Olynyk has been a nice bargain all year, exceeding expectations in 65% of his games for the season. His scoring has been up of late, so he looks like a nice bargain.
Photo credit: USAToday Sports
Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo
