The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Luka Doncic continues to make history virtually every time he takes the court. He’s been awesome from a fantasy perspective this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +17.33 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and he’s coming off a historic performance in his last outing:
Luka Doncic becomes the first player to record a 35-point triple-double in under 25 minutes. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/4iSoG5MLYV
— theScore (@theScore) November 21, 2019
Overall, he’s averaged 1.81 DraftKings points per minute this season, which is the top mark on the slate regardless of position.
He’s in a solid spot today vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers. They rank just 19th in defensive efficiency to start the season, and the Mavericks’ implied team total of 115.75 is the third-highest mark on the slate.
Value
Kris Dunn has pretty quietly put together a nice string of fantasy performances recently. He’s not playing a ton of minutes, but that hasn’t stopped him from posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past eight games on FanDuel. His salary remains reasonable at just $4,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 73%.
Fast Break
Tonight’s contest between the Wizards and Hornets figures to be one of the best of the day from a fantasy perspective. Both teams rank in the bottom-eight in defensive efficiency this season — the Wizards rank dead last — and Washington has also played at the sixth-fastest pace. The total on this game currently sits at 235.5 points, which is the top mark on the slate.
Terry Rozier stands out as an excellent target on DraftKings at just $6,200. He’s gotten off to a rough start this season, but he’s still averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.66 is one of the top marks at the position.
Trae Young has seen a nice drop in salary recently, falling from $10,400 to $9,700 on FanDuel over the past week. He’s struggled over that time frame, but it hasn’t exactly been his fault: He played only 28.8 minutes in a blowout loss to the Clippers and then had a mediocre showing in a brutal matchup vs. the Lakers. His matchup today vs. the Pistons is much friendlier, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.99 on FanDuel. This is a nice buy-low opportunity.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden has posted a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past two games, and he’s in one of the toughest spots possible vs. the Los Angeles Clippers. They currently rank just ninth in defensive efficiency, but they just played their first game of the season with both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in the lineup. Those are two of the best defensive wings in the league, so it’s reasonable to expect the Clippers’ numbers to improve as they play more games together.
Still, this is one of the first times all season that Harden is not the most expensive player on the slate on FanDuel. Doncic has officially passed him in salary, and LeBron James is also more expensive at the SF position. Harden had no problem scoring vs. the Clippers in their first meeting this season, logging 67.7 FanDuel points in 44.5 minutes. He’s an interesting option for guaranteed prize pools considering his projected ownership of 9-12%.
Value
Langston Galloway looks like a nice source of savings on FanDuel, where his $4,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%. He’s currently projected for 34.8 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.15 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
The Nets will be without Kyrie Irving and Caris LeVert again today, which keeps Spencer Dinwiddie squarely on the fantasy radar. He’s scored at least 40.8 FanDuel points with both players out of the lineup in his last two games, and he’s averaged 1.21 FanDuel points per minute with both players off the court this season.
Bradley Beal is the obvious target if you’re looking for some exposure to the Wizards, who lead the slate in implied team total. He’s bounced back after a poor shooting start to the season, scoring at least 53.2 FanDuel points in three of his past four games. His 12 Pro Trends trail only Harden’s 13 at the SG position on FanDuel.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James is priced in his own tier at the SF position, and he’s put together an excellent start to his second year with the Lakers. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.91 over his past 10 games, and he’s averaged 1.66 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s operating more as a distributor this season — he currently leads the league with an average of 11.1 assists per game — which has allowed him to record five triple-doubles through his first 14 games.
Still, it’s hard to get too excited about him at an elevated price tag in a subpar matchup vs. the Thunder. They’re currently playing at the fifth-slowest pace, and they’re also above average in defensive efficiency. The Lakers are currently implied for just 107.75 points, which represents a slight decrease compared to their regular season average (110.9).
Value
The Kings have the potential to be pretty shorthanded today. De’Aaron Fox remains out with an ankle injury, and Trevor Ariza will miss today’s game for personal reasons. Cory Joseph and Bogdan Bogdanovic are also listed as questionable.
That could result in a larger role than usual for Harrison Barnes. He’s already logged at least 37.2 minutes in two of his past three games, so he has the potential to carry a massive workload if Bogdanovic and Joseph are ultimately ruled out. He’s averaged just 0.79 FanDuel points per minute this season, but he has seen a slight increase in production with Fox, Ariza, Bogdonovic and Marvin Bagley III off the court.
Fast Break
Jimmy Butler has eligibility at both SG and SF on DraftKings, where his $8,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. He’s put together some strong performances to begin the season, scoring at least 46.25 DraftKings points in six of his past nine games, and he’s averaged a strong 1.31 DraftKings points per minute. He also benefits from the #RevengeGame narrative tonight vs. the Chicago Bulls.
Luke Kennard has been carrying one of the largest workloads at the position recently. He’s logged at least 37.5 minutes in five straight games, and a poor shooting performance in his last contest has caused his salary to decrease to $6,100 on FanDuel for tonight’s matchup vs. the Hawks. He should have a much easier go of things in this matchup given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.93 on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis has been very hit-or-miss to start his tenure with the Lakers. That said, he’s coming off 61.25 DraftKings points in his last outing, which was his second-highest fantasy output of the season: 61.25 DraftKings points used to be considered a floor game for Davis, so he clearly doesn’t possess the same fantasy upside this season.
Still, he’s definitely worth some consideration on DraftKings at $10,100 given his Bargain Rating of 88%. He has a much better individual matchup than LeBron in this contest, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.70.
Value
The Warriors somehow manage to sink lower and lower every time it seems like they’ve hit rock bottom. They’re coming off a humiliating loss to the Mavericks on national TV in their last contest, and they’ll be without Draymond Green for the second straight game today vs. the Jazz.
They played just eight players in their last game, which does make them somewhat appealing from a fantasy perspective. Omari Spellman played 28.5 minutes off the bench in that contest, and he’s averaged 1.07 FanDuel points per minute this season. He might not play as much if tonight’s contest stays competitive, but the Warriors are listed as 16-point underdogs. There’s no guarantee this doesn’t turn into yet another blowout.
Fast Break
Nemanja Bjelica is another member of the Kings who should benefit from their current injury situation. He’s currently projected for 30.7 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.96 FanDuel points per minute this season. That makes him a nice target at $5,900 against a Nets squad that has struggled vs. opposing big men all season.
Kristaps Porzingis got off to a slow start this season, which is not surprising considering he missed all of last season with a knee injury. He’s started to turn things around of late, scoring at least 34.5 DraftKings points in four straight games. He’s in an excellent spot today vs. the Bulls, and his $7,300 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%.
Center
Stud
The 76ers are playing the front leg of a back-to-back today, which makes Joel Embiid a potential rest candidate. That said, Embiid has already said that he’s going to play, so he figures to be in the lineup vs. the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs were once one of the most feared defensive teams in the league, but those days are long gone. They rank just 28th in defensive efficiency this season, and the 76ers’ implied team total of 114.25 ranks sixth on the slate.
Embiid is underpriced at $9,300 on DraftKings given his ability to dominate from a fantasy perspective. His salary has decreased by $500 over the past month, and Embiid has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.91 with a comparable monthly salary change. His average of 1.60 DraftKings points per minute this season gives him similar upside to guys like Harden and Doncic, but Embiid comes at a significant discount.
Value
Willie Cauley-Stein has seen a price decrease after scoring just 22.3 FanDuel points in his last contest, but that was the only time he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus over his past eight games. His size will be needed today vs. Rudy Gobert and the Jazz, which makes him a nice buy-low candidate. He’s averaged 1.10 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he could see a few additional minutes in this contest.
Fast Break
Speaking of Rudy Gobert, he’s a viable option in his own right. He has one of the best individual matchups on the slate, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.53 on DraftKings. The only concern is if the Warriors can keep this game competitive enough that Gobert will have to play four quarters.
Clint Capela stands out on DraftKings, where his $7,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. He’s pulled down at least 20 rebounds in five straight games, and he’s in a great spot today vs. the Clippers. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.42, and Capela scored 42.0 DraftKings points in his first matchup vs. the Clippers this season.
Pictured: Kings F Nemanja Bjelica (88)
Photo Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
