The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook has been a major disappointment recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -11.00 over his past five games on DraftKings. It’s also been reported that he’ll likely sit out one game during the Rockets’ current back-to-back set.
That said, he’s tough to ignore at just $8,400 if he is active for tonight’s contest vs. the Pacers. That salary is unprecedented for Westbrook: He hasn’t been priced below $8,800 on DraftKings since we began tracking that data in 2014-15 (per the Trends tool).
There are also reasons for optimism with Westbrook moving forward. His current usage rate of 30.6% is nearly identical to his mark of 30.9% last season, and he’s still averaging 8.0 rebounds and 6.9 assists per game. He leads all point guards with 14 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and point guards with a comparable number of Pro Trends have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.23.
Value
Markelle Fultz has revived his career as a member of the Magic. He still isn’t playing huge minutes — he’s currently projected for just 24.1 in our NBA Models — but that hasn’t stopped him from posting a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games on FanDuel. He’s averaged 0.85 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to return value at just $4,500.
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Orlando Magic guard Markelle Fultz (20).
Fast Break
Malcolm Brogdon is coming off arguably his worst game of the season, but it wasn’t exactly his fault. He was limited to just 25.5 minutes due to foul trouble and the game turning into a blowout. He should return to his normal workload today, but his price tag has dropped by $500 on FanDuel after his poor showing. Brogdon also benefits from an elite matchup vs. the Houston Rockets, who have played at the fastest pace in the league this season.
Jeff Teague is expected to return to a Timberwolves lineup tonight that is implied for a slate-high 124.75 points. His minutes will likely be limited, but he’s averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute this season. He has solid upside at $5,300 on DraftKings given the matchup.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is the most expensive player on the slate, and he’s been worth every penny recently. He’s scored at least 62.0 DraftKings points in each of his past five games, and he’s eclipsed 71.5 DraftKings points in four of those contests. He’s currently on pace to lead the league in scoring and usage rate for the third straight season.
That said, he’s in one of the worst spots he’ll see all year today vs. the Pacers. They’ve played at the fifth-slowest pace this season, and they also rank eighth in defensive efficiency. Overall, his Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.51 is one of the lower marks on the slate, and he’s been priced up to a season-high $12,200 on DraftKings and $12,500 on FanDuel.
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13).
Of course, that’s all moot if Westbrook gets the night off. He’s posted a ridiculous 47.5% usage rate with Westbrook off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.81 DraftKings points per minute. He would be very tough to fade in that situation, regardless of the price tag and matchup.
Value
Sticking with the Rockets, Ben McLemore is priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 79%. He moved into the starting lineup in the Rockets’ last game due to the injury to Danuel House, who is doubtful to suit up today. McLemore is currently projected for 27.7 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with a comparable minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.25 when priced at the minimum.
Austin Rivers also fits this Trend, and he would become a viable punt option at point guard if Westbrook is ultimately ruled out.
Fast Break
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the only member of the Thunder who is averaging more than 30 minutes per game this season. He’s also been productive, averaging 0.95 DraftKings points per minute, resulting in an average of 34.45 DraftKings points per game. With that in mind, he’s underpriced at just $5,900, even in a subpar matchup vs. the 76ers.
The Warriors are going to be blowout candidates every time they suit up with Steph Curry out of the line, and today’s contest vs. the Celtics is no exception. They’re currently 7.5-point underdogs despite playing at home. That said, D’Angelo Russell is going to provide huge upside in games that stay competitive. He’s averaged a ridiculous 38.0% usage rate over his past five games, and he’s scored at least 48.25 DraftKings points in four of those contests.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James was barely needed in the Lakers’ last game, which they won by nearly 30 points vs. the Warriors. Still, James was fantastic when on the court, recording 52.5 DraftKings points in just 26.5 minutes. He posted his highest usage rate of the season, which was not all that surprising considering that Anthony Davis was out of the lineup.
King James is in an interesting spot tonight vs. the Sacramento Kings. The Kings rank just 26th in defensive efficiency this season, but they’ve also played at the fourth-slowest pace.
Overall, the Lakers’ implied team total of 112.75 is roughly inline with their season average and is significantly lower than today’s top teams. Davis is expected to return to the lineup, which definitely caps his fantasy upside. He’s scored 47.5 DraftKings points or fewer in five of his first 10 games, which makes him a risky proposition at his highest price tag of the season.
Value
Joe Ingles has taken a step back for the Jazz after they acquired Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic in the offseason. He’s currently on pace to post his lowest usage rate in four years, and his assist rate would be his lowest mark of the past three seasons.
Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Utah Jazz forward Joe Ingles (2).
That’s caused his price tag to drop to just $4,300 on FanDuel, which makes him an interesting buy-low candidate in a plus-matchup vs. the Grizzlies. They’ve played at the sixth-fastest pace this season, which makes this one of the biggest pace-up spots of the day. Ingles owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.64 on FanDuel, which gives him one of the best individual matchups at the position.
Fast Break
Jeremy Lamb has been ruled out for the fifth straight game, which should result in a boost in value for T.J. Warren. He’s seen a few additional minutes with Lamb out of the lineup, and he’s averaged 0.87 FanDuel points per minute with Lamb off the court this season. He also benefits from the same elite matchup as Brogdon, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.48.
It’s hard to knock Andrew Wiggins at the moment, who has put together easily the best stretch of his career recently. He’s taken massive steps forward as a distributor, and he’s also shooting 36.1% from 3-point range on a career-high 6.5 attempts per game.
It remains to be seen if he can continue to produce at that level with Teague back in the lineup, but he’s in one of the best spots possible vs. the Wizards. They rank 29th in defensive efficiency, and they’ve allowed at least 140 points in two of their first nine games.
Power Forward
Stud
Myles Turner will also miss another game for the Pacers, which puts Domantas Sabonis clearly on the DFS radar. He’s been excellent recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in six of his past seven games, and the only exception was a blowout win where he played just 29.2 minutes.
He’s been priced up to $9,500 on FanDuel, but it’s hard to argue against him even at an elevated price tag. Sabonis has averaged 1.37 FanDuel points per minute with Lamb and Turner off the court this season, and he’s currently projected for 36.7 minutes. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.94 on FanDuel, where he leads the position with 13 Pro Trends.
Value
Robert Covington is another potential option for the Timberwolves. He’s always in play on FanDuel given his ability to contribute in the defensive categories, and he has more offensive upside than usual vs. the Wizards. He likely wont play more than 26-28 minutes, but he’s capable of averaging over a fantasy point per minute.
Fast Break
Draymond Green has been priced down to just $5,300 on DraftKings, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.63 with a comparable price tag.
Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green (23).
He clearly doesn’t possess the same upside for the Warriors with Curry, Klay Thompson, and Kevin Durant no longer in the lineup, but he’s still averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute. He suffers from the same blowout concerns as Russell, but he has excellent upside if the Warriors can keep this game competitive.
On the other side of the same matchup, Jayson Tatum has gotten off to a fantastic start this season. He’s struggled to score the ball recently — he shot a woeful 1-18 from the field two games ago — but he’s still averaged 1.08 FanDuel points per minute this season. He owns an opponent Plus/Minus of +2.81 on FanDuel, which makes this a nice buy-low opportunity.
Center
Stud
The center position is loaded today, but it’s hard to argue against Karl-Anthony Towns as the top option. He’s been fantastic this season, averaging 1.71 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s in a smash spot vs. the Wizards.
They’ve struggled on the glass in addition to on the defensive end, ranking just 28th in team rebound rate. Overall, his Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.01 on DraftKings ranks second among centers projected for at least 20 minutes.
Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32).
Towns also seems underpriced on DraftKings, where his $10,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. He may not possess the same otherworldly ceiling as Harden, but his cheaper price tag arguably makes him the superior value.
Value
It seems like a good day to pay up at the position on DraftKings, but Tyson Chandler is worth some consideration on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $3,800, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 77%, and he’s expected to enter the starting lineup in place of the injured Clint Capela. Chandler has averaged 1.02 FanDuel points per minute, so he can do some damage with increased playing time.
Fast Break
Andre Drummond has seen a drop in production since Blake Griffin returned to the lineup, but he’s also seen a massive drop in price tag. He’s fallen from $10,800 on DraftKings roughly two weeks ago to just $8,600 for today’s matchup vs. the Hornets. Drummond has historically provided solid value with a comparable price tag, averaging a Plus/Minus of +2.86.
Pictured above: Pacers PF/C Domantas Sabonis (11)
Photo credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
