The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a nine-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Luka Doncic did not disappoint in the first game of his sophomore season, racking up 52.75 DraftKings points in just 33.5 minutes. He posted a usage rate of 37.3% in that contest, which represents a solid increase from his mark last season (30.5%). He also continued to provide solid production in the peripheral categories, particularly with his nine rebounds.
Doncic has a solid matchup today vs. the Pelicans, who were one of the worst defensive teams in the league last season. His 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings are tied for the most at the position, and PGs with a comparable number of Pro Trends and salary have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.02 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Doncic is also one of the better pure values at the position on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 87%.
Value
Shabazz Napier could be an interesting source of value for the Timberwolves this season. He played more than 20 minutes off the bench in their first game this season, and he averaged a strong 1.02 FanDuel points per minute last year. He’s priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to potentially return value.
Fast Break
The Thunder were slightly cautious with Chris Paul in their first game, limiting him to just 30 minutes of playing time. That said, he was very productive when he was on the court. He averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute, which represented a large increase from his final season with the Rockets. He also handed out just three assists in that contest, and he should be able to improve upon that moving forward.
Ja Morant struggled a bit in his NBA debut, but there were a lot of positives to take away from that contest. For starters, this clearly isn’t the same Grizzlies team. They lead the league in pace after one contest after finishing as the slowest team in the NBA last season. Morant also dominated the basketball when he was on the court, posting a usage rate of 29.9%. There should be better games in store for Morant soon.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Bradley Beal is going to have to carry a lot of weight for the Wizards this season. They have virtually no NBA talent around him, so he’s going to have to do everything for this team to try and keep them afloat.
That’s obviously going to lead to some big fantasy performances. He shot just 7-of-25 from the field and 1-of-11 from 3-point range on opening night, but he was still able to post a Plus/Minus of +2.30 on DraftKings. If he starts making his jump shot, he has a massive ceiling.
Beal is an excellent value today on DraftKings, where his $8,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Value
Jalen Brunson played approximately 24.5 minutes off the bench for the Mavericks in their first game this season, which makes him an interesting target at just $3,500 on DraftKings. He averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute in that contest, which is in line with his average of 0.83 DraftKings points per minute from last season. He also shot just 3-of-10 from the field, so he has some room for improvement moving forward.
Fast Break
The Nets have one of the best matchups of the day vs. the New York Knicks, and they lead the slate with an implied team total of 118.5 points. Kyrie Irving is the obvious target for them, but don’t sleep on Caris LeVert. He’s capable of producing in every category across the board, and he posted a usage rate of 28.5% in his first game of the season.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was one of the key pieces in the trade that sent Paul George to Los Angeles, and he has a chance for a big season with the Thunder. He posted a usage rate of 31.7% in his first game, resulting in 31.9 FanDuel points in a tough matchup vs. the Jazz. He should have a much easier go of things today vs. the Wizards, who were one of the worst defensive teams in the league last season.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James and the Lakers struggled in their first game of the season, losing 102-112 vs. the Los Angeles Clippers. Still, James did manage to produce virtually across the board: 18 points, nine rebounds, eight assists, one steal and one block. His usage rate of 31.4% also ranked second on the team, just behind Anthony Davis’ mark of 35.8%.
He has another tough matchup today vs. the Utah Jazz — they ranked second in defensive efficiency last season — but he might be too cheap to pass up on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $9,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
Nemanja Bjelica will never go away. Luke Walton said that Bjelica will likely replace Marvin Bagley in the starting lineup today after Bagley fractured his thumb on Wednesday vs. the Phoenix Suns.
Bjelica is currently projected for 25.6 minutes in our NBA Models, which should be enough to make him a viable fantasy option. He averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.43 on FanDuel when projected for at least 20 minutes last season.
Fast Break
The Knicks have one of the worst rosters in the NBA, but that doesn’t mean they can’t provide some fantasy value. Marcus Morris is going to have a big season if the first game is any indication. He played a whopping 39.3 minutes, and he averaged a strong 0.90 FanDuel points per minute last year. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel and is projected for just 2-4% ownership.
Isaac Bonga remains one of the better pure values on the slate at just $3,400 on DraftKings. He’s a solid producer on a per-minute basis — he averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute last season and 0.86 DraftKings points per minute in his first game this season — and he figures to see a solid handful of minutes for the Wizards.
Power Forward
Stud
Is Pascal Siakam ready to become a fantasy superstar? The Raptors obviously have a big void to fill after losing Kawhi Leonard during the offseason, and Siakam did a good job of filling that void in their first game of the season. He posted a usage rate of 35.7%, which was a higher mark than he posted in all but one game last year. He also chipped in 18 rebounds and five assists over 38.1 minutes before ultimately fouling out. Maybe his production in that game was an outlier, but I’m not willing to write him off so quickly.
Siakam is in a nice spot today vs. the Boston Celtics, who don’t figure to be the same team defensively this season. They’re particularly weak in the frontcourt after losing Al Horford and Aron Baynes in free agency during the offseason.
Siakam is a nice value at just $8,100 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 87%, and he’s projected for just 2-4% ownership. That makes him an elite option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
Frank Kaminsky figures to garner a few additional minutes of playing time given the absence of Deandre Ayton. He’s currently projected for 22.2 minutes in our NBA Models, and Kaminsky averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.17 on FanDuel when projected for at least 18 minutes last season. He’s also priced at just $100 above the minimum on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Anthony Davis recorded ‘just’ 51.0 DraftKings points in his Lakers debut, and he averaged a pretty pedestrian 1.37 DraftKings points per minute. Still, he’s underpriced at just $10,000 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%. His ceiling projection of 71.9 DraftKings points is the third-highest mark on the slate regardless of position.
P.J. Washington was outstanding in his NBA debut, posting a Plus/Minus of +19.91 on FanDuel. He’s been priced up pretty aggressively after that contest, but his 13 Pro Trends are still tied for the most at the position.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns absolutely crushed the Nets in his first game of the season. He recorded 36 points, 14 rebounds, three assists, three steals and three blocks, resulting in a whopping 73.5 DraftKings points. His efficiency in that contest was also impressive: He shot 50% from the field, 63.6% from 3-point range and 87.5% from the free throw line.
He has another appealing matchup today vs. the Charlotte Hornets. The Timberwolves’ implied team total of 116.0 is tied for the second-highest mark on the slate, and Charlotte doesn’t have anyone who can match his combination of size and athleticism. Opposing center Bismack Biyombo ranked just 47th out of 55 qualifiers at the position in Defensive Real Plus-Minus last season, and he’s not the type of center who wants to leave the paint.
Value
Center does not seem like a position you really want to pay down today, but Dewayne Dedmon is worth some consideration. He should see a bump in minutes given the injury to Bagley, and he averaged a stout 1.08 FanDuel points per minute last season. That’s a lot of potential production at just $4,500.
Fast Break
Consistency is always a concern for Nikola Jokic, but very few players in the NBA can match his upside. He’s in a juicy spot today vs. the Phoenix Suns, particularly with Ayton not available to suit up. His $9,300 salary on DraftKings also represents an excellent value and results in a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Hassan Whiteside was a strong value in his first game with the Blazers, posting a Plus/Minus of +9.81 on DraftKings. He remains one of the best producers at the position on a per-minute basis, and hopefully his playing time with the Blazers is more secure than it was with the Heat. He’s another center who seems underpriced on DraftKings.
Photo credit: USAToday Sports
Pictured: Pascal Siakam
