The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard has been on absolute fire recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +13.60 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s scored at least 34 points in six straight games. He’s also coming off a triple-double in his last contest. Overall, he’s increased his fantasy production to 1.38 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and no one on the slate is projected for more than his 39.1 minutes.
Lillard is in a tough spot today vs. the Lakers. They currently rank third in defensive efficiency, giving Lillard an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.55 on FanDuel. That said, he should benefit from the absence of Carmelo Anthony. Melo has been ruled out for personal reasons, and Lillard has seen a boost in production with Melo off the court this season.
Value
There is plenty of value available at the PG position today. It starts with Jalen Brunson, who should be asked to carry a big workload with Luka Doncic out of the lineup. He’s averaged 30.6 minutes per game in four games without Doncic this season, resulting in an average of 32.75 DraftKings points. That’s a lot of potential production at $3,600 on FanDuel and $3,800 on DraftKings.
Monte Morris also deserves consideration for the shorthanded Nuggets. They will be without Jamal Murray, Paul Millsap and Mason Plumlee once again, and Gary Harris’ status is still TBD. Morris has played at least 32.1 minutes in three straight games, and he’s averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s a much better target today on FanDuel, where his $4,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Fast Break
Kris Dunn was limited to just 16.3 minutes in his last game, but he’s expected to be back at full strength tonight. He had played at least 31.6 minutes in five of his prior six contests, and he posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of them. He has a wonderful matchup today vs. the Nets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.48 on FanDuel.
Tonight’s game between the Grizzlies and Pelicans leads the slate with a total of 241 points, so that is obviously a game you’re going to want some exposure to. Ja Morant stands out for the Grizzlies at just $6,900 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 32.1 minutes in our NBA Models.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is mired in a massive slump at the moment. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -8.43 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past eight games. He’s shot just 34.6% from the field and 23.2% from 3-point range over those eight games, both of which are well below his season averages. His usage rate has also been down recently with a mark of 29.2% or less in his past three contests.
That said, this is still Harden. I’m not expecting his struggles to continue all season, and he’s going to be a massive value when he finally snaps out of it. He’s been priced down to just $10,100 on FanDuel, which is ridiculously low for him. He’s an elite target for guaranteed prize pools at that price tag, especially if he commands lower ownership than usual.
Value
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is not a particularly exciting fantasy option, averaging just 0.69 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That said, he’s currently projected for 30.5 minutes, which is a lot of playing time at just $3,400. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.48 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
Delon Wright is another interesting value target for the Mavericks. He’s priced at just $4,200 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%, and he’s averaged 23.15 FanDuel points in four games without Doncic this season. He’s done that in an average of just 19.4 minutes per game, and he’s projected for closer to 30 on today’s slate.
The Raptors could fly a little bit under the radar on today’s slate, but they have the potential to provide a ton of value. Marc Gasol and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson will both miss their second straight game, and Nick Nurse leaned heavily on his starting lineup with both players out of the lineup yesterday. Fred VanVleet finished second on the team with 36.5 minutes, and he racked up 35.4 FanDuel points. He also shot just 3-of-13 from the field, so he has the potential for a bigger performance today.
Small Forward
Stud
SF is absolutely loaded today on FanDuel, with Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James and Pascal Siakam headlining the position. That said, only LeBron has SF eligibility among those three players on DraftKings.
Luckily, LeBron stands out as one of the best pure values of the day on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 92%. He’s also been one of the safest investments in fantasy recently, posting a Consistency Rating of 92% over the past month. He may not provide the same upside with Anthony Davis back in the lineup, but his floor is among the best in the league.
He’s in an excellent spot today vs. the Portland Trail Blazers. They’ve struggled on the defensive end this season, ranking just 24th in defensive efficiency, and the Lakers are currently implied for 121.0 points.
Value
Tim Hardaway Jr. has been upgraded from questionable to probable, and he should be one of the biggest beneficiaries with Doncic out of the lineup. He’s increased his usage rate by +6.3% in games without Doncic this season, resulting in an average of 0.80 FanDuel points per minute. He’s currently projected for 32.5 minutes, which makes him very tough to fade at just $4,300 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
The Grizzlies are going to be pretty thin today. Jaren Jackson Jr. has been suspended for leaving the bench during an altercation in their last game, and Brandon Clarke has been downgraded to doubtful. De’Anthony Melton is also doubtful, while Grayson Allen and Bruno Caboclo remain out with long-term injuries.
That opens up a lot of minutes for the rest of the roster. Jae Crowder should be among the team leaders in minutes today, and he’s increased his production to 1.00 FanDuel point per minute over the past month. He’s a strong option at just $4,400 on FanDuel. Kyle Anderson and Josh Jackson should also factor into the equation, and both guys are priced below $4,000 on DraftKings.
Will Barton leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and he should continue to benefit from the Nuggets’ current injury situation. He’s coming off more than 36 minutes in his last game, and he’s averaged 1.01 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Power Forward
Stud
Zion Williamson is coming off the most playing time of his career in his last outing, but he actually responded with his lowest fantasy output. Go figure. Regardless, that increase in playing time bodes well for his fantasy prospects moving forward. He’s averaged 1.24 FanDuel points per minute so far, so he can do a lot of damage as his playing time continues to rise. He’s underpriced at $6,500 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 94%.
Value
Serge Ibaka figures to start with Gasol out of the lineup, which makes him a massive value at just $5,700 on FanDuel. He’s currently projected for 32.3 minutes, and Ibaka has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.08 with a comparable salary and minutes projection. Ibaka has also averaged 1.17 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he has a monster ceiling vs. the Pistons.
Fast Break
Kristaps Porzingis is an interesting option today. He obviously benefits from the injury to Doncic, averaging 1.30 FanDuel points per minute in games without his star running mate this season. That said, his minutes have been down since returning from injury. He’s played 27.1 minutes or fewer in each of his past five games, and he’s currently projected for just 27.5 minutes in our NBA Models.
Thaddeus Young should continue to see a healthy amount of playing time for the Bulls, who are dealing with injuries to Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr. He’s logged at least 34.7 in two of his past three games, and he’s averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute this season. That makes him a very reasonable option at just $5,000.
Center
Stud
There are plenty of high-priced centers on today’s slate, but it’s hard to argue for anyone but Jonas Valanciunas as the top option at the position. He’s been as productive as anyone over the past month, averaging 1.38 DraftKings points per minute, but his lack of playing time his kept his production in check. That shouldn’t be a problem today. The Grizzlies will have to lean on Valanciunas given their current injury situation, which gives him a monster ceiling for his price tag. He’s played at least 30.6 minutes in each of his past two games, and he’s scored at least 37.25 DraftKings points in each contest. He’s an absolute steal at $6,300 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 89%.
Value
Brook Lopez has one of the best matchups at the position vs. the Nuggets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.44 on FanDuel. He’s averaged 1.10 FanDuel points per minute this season, and his price across the industry is pretty reasonable.
Fast Break
Deandre Ayton is underpriced at $8,200 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 81%. He’s playing a ton of minutes at the moment, and he’s averaged 1.37 FanDuel points per minute this season. Ayton has been an excellent value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.73 over his past 10 games. He’s an interesting pivot off Valanciunas for GPPs.
Photo credit: Joe Murphy-NBAE via Getty Images
Pictured: Grizzlies C Jonas Valanciunas (17)
