The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The Trail Blazers have one of the best possible matchups today vs. the Washington Wizards. The Wiz rank third in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency, and the Blazers’ implied team total of 120.75 ranks first on the slate by a comfortable margin. The Blazers have averaged just 112.0 points per game this season, so that represents a massive increase.
Damian Lillard has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.82 on FanDuel, where his $9,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%. Lillard has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.16 over his past 10 games, and he’s posted a 92% Consistency Rating over the past month. He’s a very strong target for cash games and has plenty of upside for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) as well.
Value
On the other side of that matchup, Isaiah Thomas is a very interesting buy-low candidate. He’s struggled over his past two games, averaging just 13.25 FanDuel points, and he’s played 22 minutes or less in both contests.
That’s caused his salary to plummet to just $4,600 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%. His matchup vs. the Blazers gives him an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.37 on FanDuel, and he’s still averaged 0.89 FanDuel points per minute this season. He doesn’t need a ton of playing time to potentially pay off his current salary.
Bradley Beal is also questionable, and Thomas would see a big bump in value if Beal is ultimately ruled out. Thomas has seen a usage bump of +7.2% with Beal, Davis Bertans, Rui Hachimura and Thomas Bryant off the court this season.
Fast Break
Ricky Rubio is currently probable for today’s contest vs. the Knicks, who rank 24th in defensive efficiency. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.17 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for 33.4 minutes in our NBA Models. That makes him one of the better values at the position at $7,200 on DraftKings.
Trae Young is expected to return to the Hawks lineup after missing each of the past two games. That means he could be on some sort of minutes restriction, but he still leads all PGs with 15 Pro Trends on FanDuel. That’s not a number you see everyday, and PGs with a comparable number of Pro Trends have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.94 (per the Trends tool).
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden has seen a price decrease of $1,100 over the past month on DraftKings, and his current $10,900 price tag is very reasonable considering his production. He’s averaged 57.0 DraftKings points per game over the past month, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.16 in seven games with a comparable salary this season.
That said, he’s in a tough spot today vs. the Philadelphia 76ers. They rank fifth in defensive efficiency this season, and they’ve also played at a below-average pace. The Rockets are currently implied for just 115.5 points, which is nearly four points less than their season average (119.4).
Overall, he carries slightly more risk than usual, but he still possesses arguably the highest ceiling on the slate.
Value
Kemba Walker will miss today’s contest for the Celtics, which means Marcus Smart will likely move into the starting lineup. He crushed in the only other game that Walker has missed this season, scoring 42.0 DraftKings points and posting a Plus/Minus of +14.1 on his $6,000 salary. He’s much more affordable today at just $5,100, which makes him tough to fade in an appealing matchup vs. the Hawks.
Fast Break
Josh Richardson has returned to playing big minutes for the 76ers, logging at least 36.2 in three of his past four games. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of those contests, and he should be locked in to another big role with James Ennis and Matisse Thybulle out of the lineup.
RJ Barrett could see a few additional minutes for the Knicks today. Elfrid Payton is questionable with a personal matter after missing the team’s shootaround earlier today, and Dennis Smith Jr. is also questionable with an injury. Barrett has averaged a pedestrian 0.73 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, but his production has been better with Payton and DSJ off the court.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James headlines the SF position today, and he’s coming off 68.6 FanDuel points in his last contest. That continues a string of good performances for James, who has averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.84 over his past 10 games. His fantasy production hasn’t changed much over the past month, but he’s benefiting from one of the largest workloads in basketball. He’s currently projected for 36.6 minutes in our NBA Models, which is one of the top marks on the slate.
He has an elite matchup today vs. the New Orleans Pelicans, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.44. The Pels rank 22nd in defensive efficiency and sixth in pace, and the Lakers’ implied team total of 117.5 ranks second on the slate.
Value
There isn’t a true “value” option popping in our models at SF, but Troy Brown deserves some consideration at $5,000 on FanDuel. That salary results in a Bargain Rating of 81%, and he’s averaged 0.94 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries if Beal is unable to suit up and this game vs. the Blazers actually manages to stay competitive.
Fast Break
Tobias Harris has one of the best individual matchups on the slate vs. the Rockets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.95 on DraftKings. He’s struggled a bit recently, but that’s caused his salary to decrease by $500 over the past 10 games. He’s an appealing buy-low option.
The Celtics have a pair of appealing SFs today in Gordon Hayward and Jaylen Brown. Brown has been more productive with Walker off the court this season, averaging 1.05 DraftKings points per minute, but Hayward is significantly cheaper across the industry. You can’t really go wrong with either, and pairing both together is also a viable strategy.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis has posted a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past four games on FanDuel, but he’s worth some extra consideration on today’s slate. He’s taking on the Pelicans, which makes this a #RevengeGame in addition to being an excellent matchup. Davis racked up 41 points and nine rebounds in his first matchup vs. the Pelicans this season, and he could have a similar performance in store today.
Value
Sticking with the Lakers, Kyle Kuzma has taken on a larger role since returning from an injury on Dec. 22. He’s scored at least 27.8 FanDuel points in four of five contests. He’s underpriced at just $4,800 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 81%.
Fast Break
Jayson Tatum has been one of the biggest beneficiaries with Walker off the court this season. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +8.4%, resulting in an average of 1.29 DraftKings points per minute. That’s a pretty significant increase compared to his regular season average of 1.13 DraftKings points per minute. He’s been priced up to $8,200 on DraftKings, which is definitely on the high side for Tatum, but he deserves stud consideration vs. the Hawks.
Derrick Favors has been an excellent source of value recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games on FanDuel. He’s coming off 36.2 FanDuel points over 34.9 minutes in his last contest, yet his salary has actually decreased by $200 for today’s matchup vs. the Lakers. It’s definitely a tough matchup – Favors owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.87 on FanDuel – but he could see a few additional minutes to try and combat the size of Davis.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid did not play in the 76ers’ last game, but he’s not listed on the injury report for tonight’s matchup vs. the Rockets. He’s in an absolutely elite spot if he does return to the lineup. For starters, the Rockets are a great matchup, giving Embiid an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.30 on FanDuel.
That said, the biggest selling point is his salary. He’s seen a price decrease of $1,500 over the past month on FanDuel, and his current $9,200 price tag is simply too cheap. Historically, Embiid has averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.73 with a comparable salary. He could fly a bit under the radar compared to guys like Harden, LeBron and Davis, which makes him an elite option for GPPs.
Value
The Wizards own the best matchup of the day at the center position, and they have a couple of interesting options. Ian Mahinmi should draw the start at the position, and he’s coming off 41.25 DraftKings points just two games ago. He has excellent upside at $5,100.
Still, Anzejs Pasecniks might be the better pure value at just $3,200. He’s averaged a solid 0.86 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past two games. That includes 20.5 DraftKings points in his last game despite shooting just 2-of-8 from the field. He could have a better performance in store today.
Fast Break
Bam Adebayo stands out as one of the better pure values on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 85%. His 13 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position, even in a tough matchup vs. the Magic.
Hassan Whiteside remains underpriced on FanDuel at $9,300. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.47 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which trails only Embiid among today’s centers. He’s also seen a healthy amount of playing time with the Blazers, which is something that wasn’t always guaranteed when he was with the Heat. He has a huge advantage on the interior vs. the Wizards, who rank dead last in team rebound rate by a comfortable margin.
Photo Credit: Brian Babineau-Getty Images
Pictured: Celtics G Marcus Smart (36)
