The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday offers a three-game main slate beginning at 7:30 p.m. ET and a five-game all-day slate on FanDuel commencing at 3 p.m. ET. Six of the bottom-10 teams in pace since the All-Star break are in action today.
Point Guard
Studs
Kyle Lowry is the most expensive point guard on the main slate. He carries discernible home/road splits, per our NBA Trends tool:
These spiked road splits may be explained the by Lowry’s 2.2-minute-per-game differential away from the Air Canada Centre. His efficiency drops on the road, but the extra playing time allows him to improve on his counting stats. Lowry has also been solid with at least two days rest this season, recording a +4.16 DraftKings Plus/Minus, and he’s been more reliable against teams with winning records, averaging 37.45 FanDuel points per game. His salary will be a sticking point, however, as he’s up to a salary of $8,400 on DraftKings for the first time since before Christmas.
The Hornets haven’t scored fewer than 122 points in the previous three meetings against the Wizards this season. However, Kemba Walker failed to exceed 39 FanDuel points each time as the role players chewed up most of the production. Much like Lowry, Walker has seen improved performance with at least two days of rest this year, averaging 43.63 DraftKings points in 12 opportunities.
Value
Fred VanVleet has scored in double figures in eight of his last nine games, and he’s converted at least three 3-pointers in six of his last seven. VanVleet has also averaged 23.71 DraftKings points in the last seven instances when the Raptors have been favored by no more than eight points on the road, and his salary hasn’t budged much on DraftKings or FanDuel despite his consistent production.
Fast Break
Terry Rozier has posted 31.0 and 35.25 DraftKings points for Boston in the first two games against the Raptors this season, respectively — even though he played less than 28 minutes off the bench in both instances. Shane Larkin played a team-high 34 minutes off the bench in Wednesday’s three-point win, and if Al Horford and Marcus Morris remain sidelined with ankle issues, Larkin may continue to be an integral member of the rotation. Jaylen Brown (toe) has been added to the injury report, and if he’s unavailable, Rozier and Larkin should benefit while Morris, if healthy, could replace Brown in the starting lineup.
D’Angelo Russell‘s output against teams with a Defensive Rating less than 104.0 over the last three months has been all over the place. It ranged from 17.75 DraftKings points when he was playing limited minutes off the bench to 56.75 DraftKings points against the Raptors last Friday in a game he recorded a triple-double in 31 minutes. In the last seven games with Spencer Dinwiddie relegated to a bench role, Russell has averaged a team-high 1.17 DraftKings points per minute.
Shooting Guard
Stud
DeMar DeRozan is the most expensive shooting guard on the main slate. In the first two games against the Celtics this season, he topped out at 33.6 FanDuel points. He hasn’t reached that figure in four straight games despite playing a normal allotment of minutes, and he attempted 12 shots and zero free-throws in his most recent contest. He also recorded a usage rate of less than 22% in consecutive games for the first time all season. His salary hasn’t fluctuated enough to dive all-in in cash games, but he offers bounce-back potential at what will likely be low ownership in tournaments.
Value
Caris LeVert has played at least 24 minutes in 12 straight games and averaged a +3.7 DraftKings Plus/Minus during that stretch. He’s settled in as a primary playmaker in the second unit, and his production has ranged from 20.0 to 32 DraftKings points. He helps out in every category except blocks and also provides small-forward eligibility on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Bogdan Bogdanovic had quite the resurgence on Thursday, exceeding salary-based expectations on FanDuel for the first time in seven contests. With Garrett Temple sidelined with a sprained ankle, Bogdanovic has played at least 35 minutes in two of the last three games. Most importantly, Bogdanovic was the primary ball handler in the second unit alongside Frank Mason III.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant played 17 minutes prior to getting tossed in the final seconds of Thursday’s first half, indicating he wasn’t on a strict minute limitation. He also had an obscene 40.4% usage rate in those 17 minutes while dishing out a team-high six assists. Klay Thompson is expected to rejoin the fold after an extended absence due to a fractured thumb on his shooting hand, but Andre Iguodala (knee) won’t be available. When Stephen Curry (knee) and Iguodala have been off the court over the past three months, Durant has led the Warriors with a +5.6% usage rate differential, a 31.7% assist rate, and 1.47 DraftKings points per minute. And in the two games Curry and Iguodala missed over that timeframe, Durant went supernova:
Value
Dante Cunningham is currently the Nets’ second-string center and costs the minimum on FanDuel. Coach Kenny Atkinson has trimmed his rotation to nine players lately, which helps reduce uncertainty when projecting minutes. Cunningham hasn’t been wildly productive, but he’s exceedingly cheap.
Fast Break
Allen Crabbe has notched nine of his career-high 30 blocks in seven of the last eight games. Although that production appears fluky, his salary has decreased to $4,600 on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Power Forward
Stud
Draymond Green‘s salary has reached $8,600 on FanDuel for just the second time since the beginning of January. He also costs more than $9,000 on DraftKings for the second time all season. Green hasn’t been as proficient as Durant when Curry and Iguodala have been off the floor this season — his assist rate, efficiency and usage have all declined in Curry’s absence.
Value
Skal Labissiere has started the last four games for the Kings as Zach Randolph has been relegated to a DNP-CD. Labissiere leads all projected starting power forwards in Pace Differential and Opponent Plus/Minus despite the matchup against Draymond Green, per the NBA Models. As long as Randolph remains out of the rotation, Labissiere should be the Kings’ primary power forward (though that axiom was thwarted by Vince Carter in Thursday’s loss).
Anthony Tolliver and Henry Ellenson accounted for all of Detroit’s power-forward minutes in Blake Griffin‘s absence during Thursday’s win. Griffin is set to be reevaluated in a week, which creates a sizable void for Tolliver and Ellenson to subsume. Coach Stan Van Gundy added:
“The silver lining is Henry (Ellenson) gets some minutes here earlier than expected in games that are still pretty meaningful.”
Ellenson costs no more than $3,500 on DraftKings and FanDuel, but he hasn’t proven to be a consistent option for cash games yet.
Fast Break
The Raptors haven’t played since Tuesday and are one of five teams that with at least a two-day respite since their last match. Serge Ibaka has benefited greatly from additional days of rest since last season:
Center
Studs
Jonas Valanciunas hasn’t played more than 22 minutes in each of the last four games, yet he’s provided at least 30.0 DraftKings points in every game. He leads all players on the main slate with 1.47 DraftKings points per minute over the last month, but his inclusion in the stud section for centers displays the dearth of reliable options on the main slate.
Andre Drummond opposes a Knicks team that could be without Enes Kanter (back/wrist), who is currently doubtful. When Kanter has been off the court since Kristaps Porzingis suffered a season-ending knee injury, the Knicks’ rebound rate has cratered to 46.6% — 0.5 percentage points beneath the Magic, who rank last during that span. Drummond leads the NBA with 16.0 rebounds per game. Additionally, the Knicks rank last with a 114.4 Defensive Rating since Porzingis has been out of the lineup. When Blake Griffin has been off the court since being acquired, Drummond’s usage rate has increased by 4.1 percentage points and his assist rate has improved by 8.4 percentage points.
Value
As mentioned, Kanter is doubtful to suit up, but Kyle O’Quinn has been upgraded to probable after missing the previous two games with a hip issue. O’Quinn and Luke Kornet should have a stern foothold in minutes at center unless coach Jeff Hornacek goes off script and gives Isaiah Hicks a larger role. The matchup against Drummond lends itself to O’Quinn being the likely starter, and O’Quinn rankeds second on the team with a +3.07 DraftKings Plus/Minus since the All-Star break.
Kosta Koufos has been the primary backup center for the Kings lately, and in his last meeting against the Warriors two weeks ago, he provided 24.4 FanDuel points off the bench. Since he hasn’t missed a game in March, his standing in the rotation appears locked. However, the Kings haven’t provided information beforehand when resting veterans, and their injury reports haven’t been delivered in a timely manner.
Fast Break
Hassan Whiteside was limited to 19 minutes on Thursday following a nine-game absence after suffering a strained left hip flexor. Coach Erik Spoelstra adopted an 11-man rotation, keeping Kelly Olynyk and Bam Adebayo both under 20 minutes as well. While Whiteside is a huge liability in cash games, he has immense tournament upside against a Nets team that has allowed a league-high 51.5 points per game in the paint since the All-Star break and a +4.51 FanDuel Plus/Minus to centers on their home court this season. Conversely, the Heat rank fourth as a team with 50.1 points per game in the paint over that span, and they’ve been an elite home team, winning nine of 10 games while posting a league-best 15.1 Net Rating.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Photo: Hassan Whiteside.
Photo credit: JC Ruiz.
