The NBA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday’s slate features nine games, scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The Atlanta Hawks have clinched their NBA Playoffs spot but remain in a tight race for the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference. Expect Trae Young to stay red-hot against the Orlando Magic. Young has posted three straight games with at least 30 points, nine assists and 50 fantasy points on DraftKings. Among point guards on the main slate, Young also has the highest Usage Rate. He is a top-three rated point guard on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Value
The Toronto Raptors are resting everyone. Malachi Flynn will play as many minutes as he can handle against Chicago and was one point and two assists shy of a double-double against the Bulls on April 8. Flynn also added two steals for good measure. He is the only point guard priced under $6,000 that is a top-10 play on both platforms.
Fastbreak
Ja Morant draws a tough matchup with Delon Wright. Both players have defended well — with Wright establishing a track record of doing so — but, Morant has the better matchup according to Opponent Plus/Minus. De’Aaron Fox continues to miss games due to COVID-19 protocols, so Wright will get all the Morant he can handle.
Dejounte Murray trails Flynn for the position lead in Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and is the top-rated point guard. The issue is his opponent: The New York Knicks. The Knicks trail the Hawks by one-half game in the standings and need this win. Murray is a focal point of the Spurs offense and will face a top-10 defense in Net Rating and Adjusted Defensive Rating. Look elsewhere at point guard.
Facundo Campazzo has one game in May where he did not reach 25 fantasy points on FanDuel. He has played at least 30 minutes in every game during that stretch and has accrued 17 steals over that timeframe. Monte Morris returned to play 10 minutes on Tuesday but should see his minutes limited again.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Paul George and the Los Angeles Clippers have endured some tough losses the past two weeks. George has also had tough games during that stretch and has not reached his FantasyLabs projections in five consecutive games. He is only $7,800 on FanDuel and gets a plus assignment against Terry Rozier and the Charlotte Hornets. The Clippers still have a shot at the No. 2 seed in the West but could fall to the No. 4 seed and need to win out. I like George at his price, and the NBA Model likes him a lot on FanDuel in particular.
Value
Terence Davis has thrived as a member of the Sacramento Kings. He has attempted double-digit fields goals in five straight games and has scored double-digit points in each of those contests. Davis also has at least 35 fantasy points on DraftKings in three straight games. He is a palatable shooting guard option at $5,900 on DraftKings.
Fastbreak
Dillon Brooks has been a defensive stalwart for the Grizzlies and has found his offense as of late. That continues against the Kings and Buddy Hield, who is a heavy shooter on what is left of the Kings.
Caris LeVert and Domantas Sabonis will continue to be the center of the Pacers offense. LeVert has attempted double-digit field goals in each game since he return on March 3, and — Jrue Holiday be damned — he will do it again tonight. Pacers vs. Bucks has the highest projected game total on Thursday.
Kevin Huerter has been asked to take on a larger defensive role as injuries plague Atlanta’s wings, and it got him in foul trouble last night. At $4,300 on FanDuel, he is a target as a low-floor, high-ceiling option against Orlando.
Small Forward
Stud
Michael Porter Jr. and Anthony Edwards face off in Minnesota in a smash spot for Porter Jr. Edwards will not be able to keep up with Porter Jr. as the Nuggets scratch out wins to lock in the No. 1 seed in the West. Porter Jr. leads the position with 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he is the top-rated small forward. The Nuggets have the second-highest projected team total at 120.5 points.
Kawhi Leonard is projected to have half the ownership of Porter Jr. and has just as much to play for as the Nuggets do. Leonard boasts a 91% Leverage Score on FanDuel.
Value
DeAndre Bembry and Stanley Johnson are cheap options worth considering as the cheapest player in your lineup. Bembry can play both guard positions and small forward, while Johnson should start at the three. Johnson leads all small forwards in Projected Plus/Minus. Neither Bembry nor Johnson is priced above $4,000 on either site.
Fastbreak
Kyle Anderson has exceeded projections in six of seven May games. Anderson also has at least one 3-pointer made in every game this month.
Garrett Temple is a dart-throw option, because the Chicago Bulls have wanted to reaffirm their defense — a strength of Temple’s. He has a floor of zero fantasy points, but with Toronto sitting majority of its better players, Temple could rack up 20 or more fantasy points at minimal cost.
R.J. Barrett is in a bounce-back spot after a horrific 2-for-11 shooting performance on Tuesday. Encouragingly, he did manage to get to the free throw line six times despite being off shooting from the floor. I really like him against Lonnie Walker with Reggie Bullock projected to guard DeMar DeRozan.
Power Forward
Stud
Julius Randle is the guy at power forward that is not named Giannis Antetokounmpo. Paying up at power forward and center are two of my ideal options because of matchups combined with injuries. Randle is projected to see a lot of Keldon Johnson defensively, which is fine by me. The overwhelming favorite for Most Improved Player is the highest-rated power forward with higher pricing.
Antetokounmpo draws a matchup with the Pacers, who lack center depth. He should feast on Indiana.
Value
Chimezie Metu and Jaren Jackson present great values despite differing name value and salaries. Metu has played well with Richaun Holmes and has flirted with double-doubles the past two games while costing less than $4,500 on both platforms. Jackson stands to see a boost in production if Jonas Valanciunas sits out because of his back. Jackson’s cost maxes at $6,000 on FanDuel; but after a lengthy absence, Jackson has been pretty good.
Why is Aaron Gordon $3,900 on FanDuel? That is a pricing error and should be targeted. Gordon has scored 20 or more FanDuel points in three of his last four games.
Fastbreak
I would not be surprised to see Sabonis put up a monster game against the Bucks backcourt, but I expect Milwaukee to do anything possible to eliminate him offensively and target him defensively.
Moritz Wagner may be on his third team this season, but apparently the third time is the charm. Wagner as nearly doubled his minutes per game, points, rebounds, and blocks since joining the Magic. He has also improved 6% from the 3-point line.
Trevor Ariza is projected to start opposite Tobias Harris. That is all you need to know.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic is the top-rated player on both platforms. I am shocked! Karl-Anthony Towns is the lowest-rated highly priced center on both platforms. Jokic and Towns square off in Minnesota.
Value
I dislike paying down at center. Metu has center eligibility on both sites, and that is it for me. There are too many values at other positions and pivots off of injured big men.
Fastbreak
Joel Embiid did not travel to play Indiana on Tuesday and is questionable against Miami because of an illness. Unless he is looking to acquire the ‘Miami Flu,’ I doubt he plays against the Heat with another game scheduled on Friday.
Get the latest on Embiid and all questionable players using the Labs Insiders tool.
I would like Valanciunas to suit up against Sacramento, because a lot of DFS players would rightfully be concerned about his back. I would buy the injury discount, especially on DraftKings where he is the 10th-most highly priced center.
Bam Adebayo is in a smash spot if Embiid is out. Dwight Howard could limit Adebayo, but with so many injuries to key Heat players such as Jimmy Butler, Adebayo would be the focal point offensively. The Heat could move to fourth in the East with a win and Hawks loss.
