The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a six-game slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Chris Paul has been playing excellent basketball recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.29 over his past 10 games on FanDuel and he’s increased his production to 1.23 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. That’s the top mark on the slate at the PG position.
He’s in a solid spot today vs. the Spurs, who are not a defensive juggernaut. They rank just 26th in defensive efficiency this season. Paul also stands out as one of the best values of the day on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 96%, and he leads the position with 12 Pro Trends.
Value
Coby White has started to earn more playing time for the Bulls. He’s logged at least 30.2 minutes in four of his past five games, and he’s currently projected for 33.3 minutes in our NBA Models. White has averaged 0.93 FanDuel points per minute this season, so it’s not surprising that he’s found some success given the additional playing time.
He’s in a dream spot today vs. the Wizards, who have been one of the best matchups in fantasy this season. They rank tied for fifth in pace and 29th in defensive efficiency, which is a juicy combination. White is massively underpriced at just $4,500 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Derrick Rose is still working his way back from an injury that caused him to miss six games, but he has huge potential on today’s slate. The Pistons no longer employ Andre Drummond or Reggie Jackson, and Blake Griffin is still sidelined with an injury. That doesn’t leave him very much competition for touches. Rose has posted a usage rate of 33.5% with all three players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.30 DraftKings points per minute. He can pay off his current salary across the industry even if he’s still not seeing a full workload.
The values at the PG position are much stronger today on FanDuel, but Anfernee Simons stands out as an exception. He’s priced at just $3,900 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%, and he should continue to see a healthy amount of playing time with Damian Lillard out of the lineup.
Shooting Guard
Stud
It’s hard not to hit the lock button on C.J. McCollum today on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $7,000, which is crazy cheap with Lillard out of the lineup. McCollum has unsurprisingly carried the offensive load with Lillard off the court this season, increasing his usage rate by a team-high +7.7%. He’s also thrived in three full games without Lillard this season, averaging 48.57 FanDuel points per game. No one at the position is currently projected for more minutes, and he should be one of the most productive players on a per-minute basis as well. It’s tough to fade that combination.
Value
Sticking with the Blazers, it’s hard to look past Gary Trent Jr. at just $4,700 on FanDuel. He’s seen a massive workload with Lillard out of the lineup recently, and he’s currently projected for a whopping 37.1 minutes in our NBA Models. That’s a ton of playing time for such a reasonable price tag, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.14 (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
The Timberwolves are an interesting team on today’s slate. They’re going to be without Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell, which obviously increases the value with the rest of the roster. That said, they also have a brutal matchup vs. the Nuggets. They’re currently 13-point underdogs, and their implied team total of 104.0 ranks last on the slate.
Still, it’s hard to overlook Malik Beasley. He’s been awesome on a per-minute basis over the past month, averaging 0.96 FanDuel points per minute, and he should see all the minutes he can handle today. This is also a #RevengeGame if you’re into that.
Dennis Schröder has been getting the job done for fantasy owners recently. He’s increased his production to 1.12 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s seeing a healthy amount of playing time despite coming off the bench. He’s very reasonably priced across the industry for today’s matchup vs. the Spurs.
Small Forward
Stud
The Pelicans stand out as one of the strongest teams to target today. They’re currently implied for 124.25 points, which is the top mark on the slate by a significant margin. The Nuggets rank second in implied team total, but they’re implied for just 117.0 points. They have an awesome matchup vs. the Warriors, who have struggled defensively all season.
Brandon Ingram has seen a slight decrease in value since Zion Williamson joined the rotation, but he stands out as one of the best values of the day on DraftKings. He’s seen a price reduction of -$1,400 over the past month, and his current $6,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He also has an excellent individual matchup, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.54.
Value
Will Barton has been a reliable fantasy producer this season, averaging 1.02 FanDuel points per minute. He has missed some playing time recently, but he jumped right back in the rotation and scored 35.3 FanDuel points over 31.7 minutes in his first game back. He’s a safe option at his current price tag across the industry.
Fast Break
Juan Toscano-Anderson could be an interesting punt play for the Warriors. He’s priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel, and he’s near the minimum at $3,300 on DraftKings. He had the best game of his young career in his last contest, scoring 30.0 DraftKings points over just 24.7 minutes. He was able to stuff the stat sheet over that time frame, racking up 10 points, six rebounds, five assists, two steals, and a block. That gives him solid upside if he sees a similar workload today.
Carmelo Anthony is another member of the Blazers who should benefit from the absence of Lillard. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +7.1% in games without Lillard this season, resulting in an average of 0.84 FanDuel points per minute. He’s currently projected for 33.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him a reasonable option at just $5,000.
Power Forward
Stud
Zion Williamson continues to be massively underpriced on FanDuel. His $7,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.75 over his past 10 games. He’s also scored at least 37.3 FanDuel points in each of his past three games, yet his salary has remained pretty stagnant over that time frame.
He’s tough to avoid today vs. the Warriors. They have struggled on the glass in addition to on the defensive end this season, ranking just 29th in team rebound rate. Overall, Zion owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.27 on FanDuel, which is one of the best marks at the position.
Value
Daniel Gafford has been starting for the Bulls recently, which makes him an interesting option at just $3,700 on FanDuel. He hasn’t been super productive as a starter — he’s averaged just 0.75 FanDuel points per minute over the past month — but he’s in a dream spot today vs. the Wizards. They’ve been a fantasy goldmine for big men this season, giving Gafford an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.21.
Fast Break
Naz Reed is another elite value option, particularly on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 98%. Unlike Gafford, he’s been dominant over the past month, averaging 1.33 FanDuel points per minute, and he should see a bunch of minutes today with Towns out of the lineup. He scored 40.3 FanDuel points over 32.6 minutes in his last contest, and that was in a subpar matchup vs. the Celtics. His current matchup vs. the Nuggets is much friendlier, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.13.
Eric Paschall could be worth some consideration for the Warriors, particularly if you are loading up against the Pelicans. He’s averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s currently projected for 32.6 minutes in our NBA Models.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokić is the headliner at the center position, and he’s increased his level of play recently. He’s upped his fantasy production to 1.57 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark on the slate regardless of position. He doesn’t have a particularly inspiring matchup vs. the Timberwolves, but frankly there just isn’t a ton of star power worth considering. Jokic has the second-highest ceiling projection in our NBA Models, which makes him an appealing option on a six-game slate.
Value
The Warriors could provide some value at center today. Marquese Chriss has been playing healthy minutes for them recently, and he’s averaged 1.38 FanDuel points per minute this season. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $5,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
That said, Chriss is currently questionable. If he’s unable to suit up, look for Kevon Looney to soak up a few additional minutes. He’s priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, so he could provide some value even if Chriss is active.
Fast Break
Hassan Whiteside is slightly cheaper than Jokic across the industry, but he has similar floor, median, and ceiling projections. He owns 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, which trails only Chriss’ at the center position.
Photo credit: Layne Murdoch Jr.-NBAE via Getty Images
Pictured: Pelicans PF Zion Williamson (1)
