Sunday’s slate features Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks. The single-game slate locks at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Series Overview
After losing Game 1 at home, Milwaukee dominated Game 2 and salted the game away in the second quarter, outscoring Atlanta by a 43-17 margin. The series shifts to Atlanta where the Hawks are 3-2 in the playoffs. Milwaukee is 3-3 on the road this postseason.
Bogdan Bogdanovic remains questionable for the Hawks due to right knee soreness, while Giannis Antetokounmpo was added to the Bucks injury report with left calf tightness. He is considered probable for Game 3.
Milwaukee enters the game as 4.5-point favorites, a bump from being a 4-point favorite when lines originally were posted. Game 3 has an Over/Under of 224 points.
Studs
Trae Young had his worst game of the playoffs Game 2, committing eight turnovers in the first half alone. His 15 points, three assists, and two free throws made were all playoff lows for Young. Milwaukee did a better job Game 2 defending the perimeter and contesting Young’s shots, and it had a trickle-down effect for the entire Hawks offense. Young has scored under 40 DraftKings points twice during the playoffs, both coming in the last three games. Young is the only player with Usage Rate over 40 percent in this series, so you know where the ball will be when Atlanta is on offense.
The calf tightness is a concern, but Giannis is not in jeopardy of missing the game or playing time short of a blowout going either way. Jrue Holiday was the only Bucks starter to play over 30 minutes Game 2 because of their massive lead. Minutes and fantasy points should be up for Giannis and company in what should be a tighter contested game. He is rated ahead of Young on FanDuel and DraftKings using our NBA Model as the top priced options.
Khris Middleton was better Game 2, including scoring 15 points for the second consecutive game despite playing 12 fewer minutes. Middleton is shooting 12.5 percent from three and must be better from deep. As the presumed second scoring threat for Milwaukee, Middleton must find some consistency in his shot, an issue that has plagued him majority of the season. He is the top rated player on FanDuel.
Jrue Holiday is averaging 27.5 points per game this series and is taking advantage of poor defense and injuries in Atlanta’s backcourt. His offensive production and ability to slow Young is impressive and exactly why he was brought to Milwaukee. Holiday and Giannis are the only two players to score 35-plus fantasy points in both games. He is $400 cheaper than Middleton on DraftKings.
Midrange
John Collins was one of three Hawks to score in double figures Game 2, and almost logged a double-double in the blowout loss. He is the second best player for Atlanta and is priced as such on both platforms. Collins is also projected for the fifth-most minutes of any player.
Clint Capela was a fish out of water with Brook Lopez keeping him away from the basket on defense. Lopez went 3-for-5 Game 2 after hitting one from deep Game 1. Lopez’s range will keep Capela’s fantasy points in check if he continues to hit from deep. Capela is also being asked to help guard Giannis, and despite being a solid defender, cannot contribute as much offensively if he is trying to be in two places at once on defense. Capela’s salary is up $400 on DraftKings, a sign that the site does not expect his woes to bleed into Game 3.
Lopez’s performance Game 2 prevented Pat Connaughton from seeing extended playing time and capping his upside. That is the risk going forward as Connaughton’s minutes are tied to Lopez’s success, no matter the game situation.
P.J. Tucker is the only other player in this range that has contributed above projections in both contests. He is averaging 18 fantasy points per game on DraftKings and is the cheapest among players in the mid-tier pricing.
Kevin Huerter, Danilo Gallinari, and Bogdanovic have been negatives. Huerter’s 21 points in two games is six less than his explosion in Game 7 against Philadelphia. He continues to struggle from deep. Gallinari is a nothing outside of points. Bogdanovic’s knee will continue to keep him from being effective and useful in DFS. I would rather pay down past this trio with the idea of paying for safer, more expensive players.
Values & Punts
Bobby Portis ($3,200 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): The primary backup power forward for Milwaukee did not see extended run Game 2, a sign that he is valued enough to rest with the game in hand. His 39.75 DraftKings points is his best two-game total since the Miami Heat series that concluded 29 days ago.
Onyeka Okongwu ($1,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): The rookie played his second-most minutes of the postseason, a concern since it took a blowout to get on the court. That said, he most minutes played came Game 7 against Philadelphia, so there is trust in Okongwu to play during meaningful basketball. His salary and potential bonus of double-digit fantasy points open roster construction.
Solomon Hill ($1,200 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): The veteran is averaging 19 minutes per minute against Milwaukee and despite a low shot total, is comfortable taking shots from three. Hill just needs to make them; it has been three weeks since his last made three-pointer.
Bryn Forbes ($2,400 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Forbes has 11 field goal attempts, nine coming from three in 25 minutes played. If he shoots 40 percent from three instead of 33 percent, he would be averaging 10 points per game.
