It all comes down to this. The Eastern Conference semifinals series between the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks will come to a conclusion with a Game 7 on Saturday at 8:30 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game format, check out my primers on DraftKings or FanDuel before building your lineups.
Series Overview
It hasn’t always been pretty, but this series has officially gone the distance. The Nets grabbed the first two games at home, but the Bucks stormed back to win the next two games in Milwaukee. They appeared to have the advantage heading into Game 5 – Kyrie Irving was out and James Harden was hobbled – and they roared out to a sizable lead. Then Kevin Durant happened. He delivered an all-time performance to steal the game and give the Nets a 3-2 series lead.
The Nets had the chance to close out the series in Game 6, but they may have expended too much energy in the Game 5 comeback. They managed just 89 points in Milwaukee, which allowed the Bucks to even the series at three games apiece.
The Nets continue to deal with injuries heading into Saturday’s contest. Irving remains out of the lineup with an ankle injury, while Harden is clearly operating at less than 100%. He was slightly better in Game 6, but he’s still lacking his usual explosiveness when attacking the rim.
This game is basically considered a coin-flip – the Nets are currently listed as 1.5-point favorites – so let’s sit back and enjoy the ride.
Studs
Giannis Antetokounmpo is a flawed superstar, and those flaws have been exposed in this series. He struggles in the half-court, and he’s been a disaster at the free throw line for much of the playoffs. The Bucks’ offense often gets bogged down when they can’t get out in transition, and Giannis’ struggles are a big reason for that.
That said, he remains one of the most dominant fantasy producers in the league. He’s scored at least 53.0 DraftKings points in five of six games vs. the Nets, and he delivered 30 points, 17 rebounds and three assists in Game 6. He also didn’t attempt a single 3-pointer in that contest, which is probably a good thing for the Bucks. Overall, he’s averaged 1.57 DraftKings points per minute this season, which is the top mark among today’s players.
Kevin Durant is the other true stud in this contest, and I certainly wouldn’t blame you if you preferred him over Giannis. His Game 5 performance was truly incredible – he racked up 100.25 DraftKings points thanks to 49 points, 17 rebounds, and 10 assists – and he played every single minute in that contest. That said, I do wonder if playing 48 minutes will have a negative impact on him. He was mortal in Game 6, finishing with 32 points on 30 shots, and he also finished with just two free throw attempts.
Pairing Durant and Giannis is basically mandatory on today’s slate, but I do give Giannis the slightest of edges if I’m using one at Captain. He’s been better on a per-minute basis all season – Durant has averaged 1.40 DraftKings points per minute – and there are fewer concerns with his legs.
Harden is also priced like a stud, but he has not delivered stud-like production since returning to the lineup in Game 5. He did increase his production to 40.25 DraftKings points in Game 6, but his usage rate remains way down. He appears to be limited to shooting 3-pointers – 14 of his 19 shots over the past two games have come from behind the arc – which is going to make it tough for him to pay off his current salary. Harden should command virtually no ownership, but I just don’t think he’s healthy enough to make a difference.
Khris Middleton rounds out this tier, and he was arguably the Bucks’ best player in Game 6. He finished with a game-high 38 points, and he also chipped in 10 rebounds, five assists and five steals. He ultimately racked up 70.0 DraftKings points, which made him a better fantasy producer than Giannis and Durant.
That said, it’s very unlikely he hits that threshold again on Saturday. Not only were the five steals fluky, but he also shot 11-for-16 from the field. He’s due for some regression in both categories in Game 7. The Bucks will need a big performance from Middleton if they want to pull off the upset, but fantasy owners should temper expectations.
Midrange
Jrue Holiday has been mired in a deep slump during the playoffs. He’s struggled from 3-point range in particular, making just 27.0% of his attempts from deep in this series. That includes a 1-for-10 performance from 3-point range in Game 6.
Still, his performance in that contest was otherwise encouraging. The Bucks shortened their rotation in a must-win game, and Holiday racked up 42.8 minutes. He’s averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he has the potential for a big game with that much playing time. He’s one of the best values on the slate on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 95%.
After Holiday, there’s a drop-off to the next tier. Blake Griffin is the next-priciest option on DraftKings, but I’m fine with fading him on this slate. He delivered 46.0 DraftKings points in Game 1 of this series, but he’s limped to 26.0 DraftKings points or fewer in each subsequent game. Pairing Giannis and Durant means I have to sacrifice guys like Griffin in my lineups, and I’ll make that trade every day of the week.
The same goes for Joe Harris. He needs to make a bunch of 3-pointers to pay off his current salary, and he simply hasn’t done that in this series. He’s shooting just 32.5% from 3-point range vs. the Bucks, which represents a massive decrease compared to his regular-season average.
If you are going to play Griffin or Harris, you’re better off doing it on FanDuel where both players own a Bargain Rating of at least 95%.
Next up is Bruce Brown, and you should simply remove him from the player pool. He logged less than five minutes in Game 6 and is projected for a similar workload in our NBA Models. Don’t play him.
The next tier consists of Brook Lopez and Jeff Green, and this is a strong one to target. Lopez has failed to return value in each of his past two games, but his playing time remains consistent. He’s logged at least 29.8 minutes in four straight games, and he’s currently projected for 36.6 minutes in Game 7. He’s averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he should be able to pay off his salary with that much playing time.
Green has emerged as the Nets’ No. 2 option offensively given all their injuries. He thrived in that role in Game 5, finishing with 38.25 DraftKings points, but he crashed back to reality in Game 6. That’s not all that surprising – he made seven of eight 3-point attempts in Game 5 – so he was a clear candidate for some regression. That said, he made just 2-of-9 shots in Game 6, so he now stands out as a bounce-back target.
Values & Punts
- P.J. Tucker ($4,400 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Tucker is in the court for one reason only in this series: make life as difficult as possible for Durant. Expect him to break out all of his tricks in Game 7, and I would be shocked if he finishes with less than five fouls. He’s one of the worst fantasy contributors in the league on a per-minute basis, but he’ll have the chance to return value through sheer volume on Saturday.
- Bryn Forbes ($3,600 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Forbes is a bit pricy on DraftKings, but he makes some sense at $7,000 on FanDuel. He’s an elite 3-point shooter, and he only needs to make a couple to potentially pay off his current price tag.
- Landry Shamet ($2,600 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Shamet is essentially the Nets’ version of Forbes. He’s on the court to try and get buckets, and he did finish with 16.5 DraftKings points in Game 5. He’s projected for more minutes than Forbes in our NBA Models, which makes him the stronger option of the two.
- Pat Connaughton ($2,000 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Connaughton is easily the best option of this group on DraftKings. His role remained safe despite the Bucks slashing their rotation in Game 6, and he finished with 21.9 minutes. He struggled to just 2.5 DraftKings points in those minutes, but he’s averaged 0.73 DraftKings points per minute this season. He should deliver a better performance in Game 7 if he sees a comparable workload.
