Saturday features Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals starting at 9 p.m. ET.
If you are unfamiliar with single-game/showdown slates, check out my primers for DraftKings and FanDuel before constructing rosters.
Series Overview
The Suns appeared to be in full control of this series. They won the first two games at home and got star point guard Chris Paul back for Game 3. Teams that jump out to a 2-0 series lead have historically advanced at a greater than 90% clip, so they unsurprisingly became massive favorites to win the series.
That said, the Clippers have thrived with their backs against the wall all playoffs. They’ve already overcome two 0-2 series deficits, and they were able to secure a victory in Game 3.
They’ll have a chance to even the series in Game 4, but they will once again be without Kawhi Leonard. Details on his injury remain scarce, and there’s still a chance that he doesn’t suit up again this season. Still, it seems as though the Clippers are going to take things on a game-by-game basis.
Marcus Morris Sr. is listed as questionable, and Ty Lue said he was a true game-time decision in Game 3. He ended up playing, but he was moved out of the starting lineup and into a bench role. He still played 24 minutes, but it seems as though he’s headed for another game-time decision in Game 4. Make sure to monitor his status using the Labs Insiders tool.
For the Suns, Cameron Payne’s injury was a big factor in Game 3. He played just 4.3 minutes after picking up a sprained ankle, but he’s currently listed as probable.
From a betting perspective, the Clippers opened up as one-point favorites, but the line has swung in the Suns’ direction. Phoenix is now favored by one point, and 80% of the spread dollars are siding with the Suns. It appears as though they’re the preferred side for the sharps on Saturday.
Studs
Paul George stands out as the clear top stud on today’s slate. He’s coming off an excellent performance in Game 3, finishing with 59.75 DraftKings points over nearly 43 minutes, and he’s scored at least 50.25 DraftKings points five of his past six games. He’s been thrust into a larger role with Leonard out of the lineup recently, and he’s increased his usage rate by +4.6% with Leonard and Serge Ibaka off the court. Overall, George has averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute in that situation, which represents a sizable increase from his average of 1.26 DraftKings points per minute during the season. No one else on the slate can match George in that department.
George also leads all players on Saturday in projected minutes in our NBA Models, which is an excellent combination. He’s only slightly more expensive than Devin Booker, which feels like a mistake since the Suns are essentially at full strength.
Speaking of Booker, he’s coming crashing back to reality following a monster performance in Game 1. He’s scored fewer than 30 DraftKings points in each of his past two games, despite the fact that he’s played at least 40 minutes in both contests. His usage rate remains sizable, but he’s shot just 10-of-37 from the field and 2-of-10 from 3-point range in those contests. That makes him a candidate for some positive regression moving forward. He’s a particularly nice buy-low target on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 94%.
Paul is $1,000 cheaper than Booker on DraftKings, which makes him the preferred stud target for the Suns. He played 38.8 minutes in his first game back following a COVID-19-related absence, and he racked up 43.0 DraftKings points despite subpar shooting numbers. Paul is superior to Booker in the peripheral categories, which arguably gives him a safer floor and higher ceiling despite a lower volume of shot attempts.
Midrange
Deandre Ayton has seen a significant price drop for Game 4 on DraftKings. He was listed at $9,200 in Game 2, but he’s down to just $8,200 tonight. He’s a much more reasonable option at that price tag. Ayton is a bit limited as a fantasy scorer — he typically only provides value in points and rebounds — but he has been hyper-efficient with his opportunities. He’s a decent bet for a double-double, and he’s displayed a ceiling of between 40 and 45 DraftKings points.
Reggie Jackson has operated as the Clippers’ No. 2 option offensively with Leonard sidelined, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games. His salary has actually decreased a bit on DraftKings for tonight’s contest, which makes him a nice target. He would be asked to post an even larger workload if Morris is ruled out, so he would be close to a must-play in that situation.
Cameron Payne and Nicolas Batum make up the next tier on DraftKings, and both players look like strong fades. Payne provided excellent value with Paul sidelined, but he doesn’t figure to have a huge role with CP3 back in the lineup. He’ll still get some run off the bench — especially if the Suns opt for some three-guard lineups — but he’s currently projected for just 21 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s still priced up a bit across the industry, so it’s going to be tough for him to return value in that short of a time frame.
Batum is projected for even fewer minutes in Game 4. The Clippers have not played nearly as small in this series vs. the Suns, which makes sense with Ayton being a superior offensive player than Rudy Gobert. That has left minimal playing time for Batum, who has logged 15.7 minutes or fewer in the past two games. Batum isn’t a great producer on a per-minute basis, so there is basically no chance of him paying off his current salary without a drastic spike in playing time.
The last tier consists of Jae Crowder, Mikal Bridges, and Morris, but there’s nothing to get too excited about here. These guys are definitely more appealing than Payne and Batum, but none is a lock to return value.
Of the three, Bridges stands out as the best option. Not only is he projected for the most minutes in our NBA Models, but he’s also been the best on a per-minute basis over the past month.
Values & Punts
- Terance Mann ($4,400 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel): Mann has officially jumped Batum in the pecking order among Clippers’ wings, yet he’s still significantly cheaper on DraftKings. That’s a mistake. He’s already locked in to a sizable workload, and he could see a boost if Morris is unable to suit up. He’s an excellent option.
- Ivica Zubac ($4,200 on DraftKings, $11,500 on FanDuel): If Mann’s salary on DraftKings is a mistake, Zubac’s is a downright travesty. He’s played at least 32.5 minutes in back-to-back games, and Zubac is an excellent producer on a per-minute basis. He deserves 100% ownership at just $4,200, and you can use him at Captain as well.
- Cameron Johnson ($4,000 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel): Johnson has been a factor in this series. He’s played at least 24.2 minutes in all three contests, and he’s scored at least 21.25 DraftKings points in two of them. That said, he could see a few less minutes with Paul and Payne both available.
- Patrick Beverley ($3,800 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel): Beverley is another player who the Clippers have dusted off for this series. He’s logged at least 26.3 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s returned value in both of those contests.
- Rajon Rondo ($3,200 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Rondo stands out as one of the best pure values in this price range on FanDuel. That said, his playing time was slashed in Game 3.
- Luke Kennard ($2,200 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): I’d rather go with Kennard than Rondo if I need to go super cheap on FanDuel. He’s a safer bet for minutes, and he has the ability to knock down shots from the perimeter.
Photo Credit: Michael Gonzales/NBAE via Getty Images
Pictured: Terance Mann and Ivica Zubac
