Four NBA teams can take 3-1 series leads on Sunday’s playoff card on another full day of basketball. The exciting schedule begins with the first game starting at 1 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Luka Dončić contribution to the Dallas Mavericks’ series lead is impressive in real and fantasy basketball terms cannot be overstated. He has one triple-double and flirted with two more, while scoring at least 31 points in each game. Dončić has been doing all of this despite a second teammate playing consistently well alongside him.
He enters this game with a questionable tag, due to neck pain that has caused some tingling in his left arm. He might not put up 70 fantasy points dealing with the pain, but with the way he has been dominating the Los Angeles Clippers, expect Dončić to suit up and flirt with another triple-double. Dončić is the only player priced over $11,000 and still a top-five rated point guard, according to the FantasyLabs NBA Model.
Value
Reggie Jackson is starting for the Clippers, but the shine has been on Rajon Rondo. Entering Game 4, Rondo has passed Jackson in pricing on DraftKings despite being outscored in two of three games and playing fewer minutes. Jackson has an 88% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and has been L.A.’s third best scorer in their series.
Fastbreak
Derrick Rose is the top-rated point guard on FanDuel and DraftKings. He has been New York’s best player against Atlanta, and continues to feast on one of the better matchups, according to Opponent Plus/Minus. Rose’s salary has jumped $1,200 on FanDuel and $1,300 on DraftKings, but that should not deter DFS players from rostering him.
Trae Young’s fantasy production has dipped some after a seven-rebound game to open the series against the Knicks, but he has been Atlanta’s answer to Rose. Young is tied with Doncic with eight Pro Trends.
Kyrie Irving and James Harden have taken back seats to Kevin Durant for majority of their series and that is okay. Irving’s quiet series makes him one of the better leverage plays at point guard (94% Leverage score on DraftKings). Harden broke out in Game 3 with his highest scoring effort since March 26. Nets-Celtics has the highest projected game total and Brooklyn has the highest projected team total. Irving and James are in line for good games.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Marcus Smart has been Boston’s best player against the Nets. He has been asked to slow down the best backcourt in basketball, while stringing together three quality shooting games. The defensive focus of the Nets with continue to be on Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum. Smart is the top-rated shooting guard on FanDuel and is a top-three option at point guard and shooting guard on DraftKings.
Value
Shooting guard continues to be a crapshoot beyond the top options. The players I don’t mind taking a chance on are Alec Burks and Reggie Bullock. The two have shown that they can fill in with scoring duties and Bullock especially adds value on defense. The duo are top 10 two’s on FanDuel. Burks is listed at small forward on DraftKings, while Bullock is a SG/SF.
Fastbreak
Paul George and Kawhi Leonard continue to carry the Clippers roster on their backs. Only Harden has a higher projection at shooting guard and George is up to $2,000 cheaper on both platforms.
Devin Booker is only 4 for 14 from three-point range and the Suns are on the ropes without him being a scoring threat from anywhere. Chris Paul’s shoulder injury has neutralized the Suns offense and Booker has been an inconsistent volume shooter throughout his career. He leads the position in Pro Trends on FanDuel, but as the biggest scoring threat that the Lakers will try to shut down, I am OK fading Booker.
Small Forward
Stud
Kawhi Leonard is in playoff form and my favorite small forward play. The Mavericks have solid wing defense and it has not slowed Leonard of George when they are on the court. He has the best Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on DraftKings and is second on FanDuel. Unsurprisingly, he is a top-two player at the position, only behind the top value at small forward on FanDuel.
Value
Evan Fournier’s salary has drop $1,000 since Game 1 despite his fantasy output increasing every game of Boston’s series. Fournier is 10 for 16 from 3-point range and might take on a larger role if Kemba Walker continues to shoot poorly/miss Game 4 with a nagging knee contusion. He has an 80% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and is projected to score 32.32 FanDuel points at just $5,500.
Fastbreak
LeBron James hasn’t been dominant LeBron because of his ankle and a difficult matchup against Mikal Bridges. The hope with playing James at his price is that he fills the stat sheet and flirts with a low scoring double/triple-double. He is priced below Kevin Durant and has a slightly better projection on FanDuel.
Durant has been Brooklyn’s most consistent scorer and is priced as the second-best player on the Nets. That is something I am taking advantage of until Durant shows otherwise.
Power Forward
Stud
Jayson Tatum blew up Game 3 and will have to put up another 30 spot to keep Boston close and avoid a 3-1 series deficit. He is atop the power forward ratings in the NBA Model and has a 95% Bargain Rating, same as Anthony Davis. Only Durant is more expensive than Tatum on DraftKings. The Nets are without Jeff Green and despite his negative defense, is a useful player for what Brooklyn does on both ends of the court and leaves them shorthanded against Tatum.
Value
Maxi Kleber is probable today and an important piece on offense for Dallas. He has played 30-plus minutes in three straight games, the first time since March 13-19. Kleber has also increased his field goal attempts each game this series. He tops at $4,500 on DraftKings.
Fastbreak
Julius Randle had the second worst shooting performance by a Knicks player in the shot clock era (min. 15 field goal attempts). Something has to give, right? He has a 90% Leverage score or higher on both platforms and is below multiple power forwards in projected ownership that are clearly worse than him.
The Nicolas Claxton hype was out of control ahead of Game 3 becuase of Green’s injury. The Nets run their offense through three people. Anyone else that gets a boost is difficult to predict unless multiple stars get hurt.
Center
Stud
Deandre Ayton has my 32 of 39 shot attempts against the Lakers. He is going to see a lot of ownership at a weak position but is showing he can slay bum centers, something the Lakers have a few of.
Value
Tristan Thompson is the chalk center and only FanDuel has increased his price significantly. Thompson is the top rated center on DraftKings with Robert Williams doubtful ahead of Game 4.
Another cheap consideration is Andre Drummond. Frank Vogel wants to use the veteran at the expense of the offensive upside of Anthony Davis at center. Drummond has a double-double against the Suns and can be used inside to try to get Ayton in foul trouble.
Fastbreak
Nerlens Noel played well despite being a game-time decision ahead of New York’s Game 3 loss. He can be efficient in 20 minutes of play but trying to pick and choose those games is difficult. There are other affordable options.
John Collins has predictably had trouble against the Randle-Noel-Taj Gibson frontcourt rotation and has been a fade for me majority of games played since March.
Clint Capela is averaging three blocks per game against the Knicks and deserves credit for frustrating Randle this series. Capela has taken a fantasy hit this series because of matchups, but he is still averaging more than 30 fantasy points per game and has been a leverage player as the top-priced center each night Atlanta has played.
