NBA DFS Breakdown (Tuesday, April 27): Lock Kevin Durant Into Lineups

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Tuesday’s slate features six games, scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET.

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Point Guard

Stud

I love this slate so much, but it also puts a strain on narrowing your player pool. There are a few things to monitor at point guard, starting with Luka Doncic. Dallas is playing Game 2-of-5 this week, and he was questionable to play last night before being cleared. He could sit against Golden State.

The only point guard with a better projection than Steph Curry is Doncic, so Curry costing less than Kyrie Irving can be seen as a value. Curry has scored at least 30 points in all but one game over the past month.

Value

Ricky Rubio has been justifiably quiet with D’Angelo Russell healthy, but Oklahoma City is a prime target for the facilitator. He is the top-rated point guard on FanDuel, according to the NBA Model. He has the best point guard Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and the third-best on DraftKings.

Fast Break

Kyrie Irving is the sandwich guard in pricing up top, but please do not forget that the Nets will continue to focus the offense through two players as injuries continue to mount — Irving and Kevin Durant.

It is the Kevin Porter Jr. show in Houston for the rest of the season with John Wall shut down. He has an 86% Bargain Rating on FanDuel (as a small forward). He has point and shooting guard eligibility on DraftKings.

Marcus Smart has great upside with Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker out. He also gains value because of his defense. The Oklahoma City Thunder average 15.4 turnovers per game, most in the NBA.

Damian Lillard and Malcolm Brogdon are going to be fun to watch because neither team plays defense. Trail Blazers-Pacers has a 242-point projected game total, the most by seven points.

Shooting Guard

Stud

Jaylen Brown to the moon! He is the top 2-guard on DraftKings with injuries in Boston and a matchup against the meager Thunder defense.

D’Angelo Russell was fantastic, as Minnesota swept their season series against Utah, and he gets KPJ and what remains of the Rockets tonight. I doubt he has a minutes limit in the second game of a back-to-back and is priced to play on both sites.

Value

It’s not a bad idea to go back to the Jalen Brunson well after a disappointing outcome for him last night. Doncic could see fewer minutes, and Kristaps Porzingis is already listed as doubtful tonight. Dallas played big last night as the Sacramento Kings played a bigger lineup. Maxi Kleber also aggravated his back injury, opening more playing time for Brunson, the usual beneficiary of minutes when Dallas has frontcourt depth concerns. He is most expensive on FanDuel at $5,000.

Fast Break

Edmond Sumner has benefitted from the frontcourt injuries in the Pacers’ lineup. His minutes had already increased, but he has had double-digit shot attempts and 30-plus fantasy points in back-to-back games. T.J. McConnell has been the best guard defender and steals machine for Indiana, but with Portland’s dominant backcourt in town, McConnell could be too busy on one end of the court, opening Sumner for another offensive barrage.

Terry Rozier leads all guards in Pro Trends. He also has been amazing against teams that are supposed to be able to slow down opposing guards. I would imagine he sees a mix of defenders against Milwaukee, especially Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton.

Small Forward

Stud

Give me Kevin Durant versus OG Anunoby. Durant smashed in his return to the lineup Sunday and is going to do the same against Anunoby. Anunoby has been excellent on both ends of the court lately and has a good matchup against Durant. Rostering both on DraftKings is high on my list, especially with Durant costing $8,300, a pittance for his talent. He carries a 99% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, while Anunoby registers an 88% rating.

Value

Tim Hardaway Jr. and Dorian Finney-Smith are going to get a lot of run despite playing last night. Porzingis and Josh Richardson are doubtful against Golden State, so the duo is locked in for around 30 minutes. Look for DFS to get a tougher defensive assignment as Dallas’ best defender.

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Fast Break

Bold prediction: Evan Fournier makes a shot tonight. He is 0-for-10 since returning from health and safety protocols. He deserves the benefit of the doubt considering the circumstances.

If the aforementioned Dallas duo plays like it looked last night, Kelly Oubre is going to end up with his third 30-point fantasy game in four contests. He also pops on DraftKings with strong Leverage and Bargain ratings.

Khris Middleton’s $600 price drop on DraftKings is tied for the sixth-most at small forward over the past month. I wish I knew what to do with it because his production does not have a safe floor or realistic ceiling.

Oshae Brissett is the same price as KPJ on FanDuel. C’mon FanDuel, really?

Power Forward

Stud

Minnesota is in a letdown spot after two straight wins over Utah. Christian Wood is top-three overall on both sites and is the obvious pay-down from Giannis Antetokounmpo and Pascal Siakam. His ownership is projected to be with the likes of Giannis and Siakam.

Kevin Durant is listed as a power forward only on DraftKings — a bit surprising but important to note with the depth atop the position.

Value

Robert Covington has curb appeal with the Pacers struggling to field a frontcourt. Jakarr Sampson is the healthiest of the bigs for Indiana, and there is no guarantee Domantas Sabonis and Goga Bitadze play. Sampson is a defensive power forward/center but cannot match up with Covington or really anyone for an extended period of time; Sampson has 11 fouls in under 48 minutes over his past two games.

Sampson could be worth the punt play with his price tag under $4,000 on both platforms. Fingers crossed he can stay with Portland’s big men.

Fast Break

The arrival of Khem Birch has been great for Siakam’s production. Birch is Siakam’s top Correlation, according to the NBA Model.

Darius Bazley has a chance to record his fourth 20-point performance in his past five games. Outside of Tatum, Boston will be without Robert Williams again, setting Bazley up for a plus matchup against Semi Ojeleye.

Death. Taxes. Playing Draymond Green, especially against a size-challenged frontcourt.

Center

Stud

Jusuf Nurkic has a $1,400 price difference between FanDuel and DraftKings, with Nurkic being the top center option on DraftKings at $6,800. Again, Indiana has depth issues at center and should be picked on until it gets healthy.

Karl-Anthony Towns had an off-game last night, and it was almost on purpose. Timberwolves head coach Chris Finch said after the game that KAT was used as a decoy at times. That also explains Russell’s offensive explosion. I like KAT to hit and exceed his 50.26 and 53.2-point projections on FanDuel and DraftKings, respectively.

Value

Kelly Olynyk has been allowed to shoot wherever whenever with Houston. A price of $6,000 is not the cheapest value based on salary, but he has the second-highest projection at center on FanDuel tonight, has multiple 3-pointers made, and is 16-for-16 from the free-throw line over the past two games.

Birch is also in consideration. He has met or exceeded projections in seven straight games and can take advantage of Brooklyn’s preferred small-ball lineup.

Fast Break

Willie Cauley-Stein saw most of the center minutes once Kleber left last night’s game. I don’t know if it continues, but it’s notable after Dwight Powell put up 25 points a couple of games ago. Cauley-Stein is cheaper than Powell on both platforms.

This is the weakest center player pool I have seen in a while. But that’s because of injuries and not the players being poor options. It feels like a Giannis-at-center night with the dearth of options to pay down for at power forward.

Photo Credit: Elsa/Getty Images.

Pictured: Kevin Durant.