Day two of the NBA playoffs is going to be a treat for traditional and DFS NBA fans. The four-game slate includes both winners of the play-in games and locks at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Zero surprise to see Wizards-76ers with the highest projected game total and two of the three highest team totals. Ben Simmons and Russell Westbrook do their damage in different ways, and it will be fun to start the day with those two matching up. Simmons has a top-five matchup using Opponent Plus/Minus and should be able to slow down Westbrook enough to compile defensive stats to boost his fantasy floor.
Value
Derrick Rose is one of the point guards with a better matchup than Simmons. Rose has been one of the first players off New York’s bench and will be asked to lead the Knicks backcourt offense. Trae Young is more than a handful to stop defensively and RJ Barrett will be busy with Bogdan Bogdanovic, so Rose will have to depend on Elfrid Payton to take Young off his game so Rose can help alleviate pressure off Julius Randle offensively. Rose is under $6,000 on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Fastbreak
Bogdan has point guard eligibility on DraftKings and has a 97% Bargain Rating on DraftKings at $7,000. A different roster construction can be the reason a GPP is won.
Westbrook is tied with Randle with 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings, the most overall. Only Randle has more on FanDuel.
Ja Morant has the highest Leverage Score among starting point guards because of his tougher matchup against Mike Conley and the Utah Jazz. Morant is the best offensive talent for the Grizzlies and will be shooting the ball a lot. He attempted 49 field goals (15 from three-point range) in Memphis’s two play-in game wins.
Chris Paul has six double-doubles in nine May games.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Devin Booker must play the best basketball of his career in this series against the Lakers. Chris Paul can lead an offense, but without Booker helping spread the floor and being assertive driving to the basket, Phoenix will be in trouble. The Suns defense has not been the same stalwart it was a few months ago, and a “healthy” Lakers roster will exploit it with their size. Booker is a top-four rated shooting guard in our NBA Model.
Value
Seth Curry has one game in May with a three-point shooting percentage under 50 percent. He leads the position in Projected Plus/Minus on both platforms. He is most expensive at $5,000 on DraftKings.
Fastbreak
Bradley Beal has played as well as expected as he deals with a strained left hamstring. Despite one of the higher price tags on DraftKings, he has an 88% Bargain Rating there as a SG/SF hybrid.
Donovan Mitchell is not on Utah’s injury report ahead of Game 1 and will be in the lineup for the first time in 16 games. I have concerns about how effective he will be in his return, but Mitchell will be itching to play. He will see a lot of Dillon Brooks, who has been one of the more important Grizzlies over the stretch run because he is above average on offense and defense.
Reggie Bullock is always good for a blowup game. He will also see the tougher defensive assignments which takes away from his offense, but assuming he does not have to guard someone like Bogdanovic, I see Bullock as a leverage and salary-saving deep threat.
Small Forward
Stud
Tobias Harris is the top-rated small forward on DraftKings and power forward on FanDuel. Rui Hachimura is not the ideal matchup for Harris but he is also the only option on Washington that can slow him. Harris continues to be a focal point of the 76ers offense and is difficult to not roster in this series.
Value
Alec Burks has been hot at the right time. He is one of the better second-unit guards in the NBA and ended the regular season attempting 14 shots (eight three-pointers) per game. Burks has seen his Fantasy Points Per Minute increase 0.16 over the past month, second to Bojan Bogdanovic (and $2,000 cheaper on DraftKings).
Fastbreak
Jae Crowder’s aggressiveness is in play if the Lakers continue to play Anthony Davis at power forward. The Lakers are a much better team with AD at center because it prevents their centers from being defensive liabilities. I will take him as a long shot if the Lakers want to start with a bigger lineup.
Danilo Gallinari sub-$5,000 on both platforms is enticing. He is an even better value if he comes off the bench. He is rated as a top five option on DraftKings.
LeBron James is $300 cheaper than Anthony Davis on FanDuel despite out-producing him per minute over the past month. FanDuel pricing reflects AD’s matchup, but getting James cheaper is a leverage point and is projected to have slightly lower ownership than his teammate.
Power Forward
Stud
Julius Randle and Harris are 1-2 on both platforms. John Collins is in for a long series against the overwhelming choice for Most Improved Player in the NBA.
Value
Royce O’Neale has a top-five matchup against Jaren Jackson. He is a strong athlete that stretches the court and can collect defensive stats in a hurry. O’Neale has the highest fantasy point projection of power forwards priced below $6,000 on DraftKings and is a top three power forward on FanDuel.
Fastbreak
Anthony Davis is an elite power forward but is a matchup nightmare at center. Rostering him could be like getting a second center if Lakers coach Frank Vogel wants to have a distinct roster advantage against the Suns.
The 76ers are top 10 in three-pointers allowed, making this a series to fade Davis Bertans. He was eliminated from their play-in game against the Pacers, another strong defender of the three.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid is the top overall play on both platforms but is priced as the fourth-best player. Only Rudy Gobert has a better matchup than Embiid, and everyone knows where the ball is going when Philly is on offense.
Value
Nerlens Noel is the cheapest projected starting center and is priced at $4,500 or less on both platforms. With Randle being the primary focus for Atlanta, Noel can and has been able to be a defense-first value at times during the season. He averaged 2.2. blocks per game and 3.3 over his final three games. Noel projects to have the highest Points Per Salary among centers on FanDuel.
Fastbreak
Deandre Ayton could produce a lot of fantasy points against Andre Drummond, but that would require trusting Ayton to show any amount of consistency. If AD gets moved to center with Ayton on the floor, he will lose what leverage he has.
Clint Capela and Jonas Valanciunas are the top leverage plays at center on FanDuel. Valanciunas projects for the lower ownership of the two at 9-12 percent and leads the position with 10 Pro Trends.
