NBA DFS Breakdown (Thursday, May 27): Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum Highlight Top Guard Options

Thursday’s three-game NBA slate has one game that could push the series to the brink, with the other two up for grabs if certain players remain limited or ineffective. Lock is at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Point Guard

Stud

Playoff Dame is here and on a mission.

Damian Lillard is the top-rated point guard on DraftKings and second on FanDuel, according to the FantasyLabs NBA Model. His usage has only increased a few percentage points, but it appears Lillard is healthy and enjoying his matchup against a depleted Nuggets backcourt. Lillard has recorded a double-double in the first two games of the series and is shooting 50% from 3 (14-for-28). Dame has a 99% Bargain Rating and is tied for the most Pro Trends at the position on FanDuel and DraftKings.

Value

I would not blame you for leaning Monte Morris as the point guard value, but Cameron Payne is more vital to his team’s success. Chris Paul’s shoulder injury is the breaking point for the Suns; if it continues to hamper him, the Lakers will win this series sooner than later. Payne exploded for 40 fantasy points in a Game 2 loss and is no stranger to running the Suns’ offense. Payne playing 33 minutes last game is great for DFS, but it’s also an omen for Phoenix.

Fastbreak

Jrue Holiday was traded for a king’s ransom to help push Milwaukee over the top in the East, and his addition has been crucial for the Bucks and one of the brighter spots in DFS.

The Heat have split the point guard minutes between Goran Dragic and Kendrick Nunn. Holiday has played well against both in his career and averaged 19 points and 7.3 assists against them in the regular season. In two games this series, he is averaging 15.5 points, nine assists, and nine rebounds. He’s a steal at $7,600 on DraftKings as the series heads to Miami for Game 3.

Morris had his best game in a while in Game 2, which also coincided with Denver’s first win. He also had two steals and one block and must continue to produce with Facundo Campazzo and Austin Rivers having an inconsistent, if not unspectacular, series against Portland. Nuggets-Trail Blazers has the highest projected game total.

It’s no surprise seeing Dennis Schroder get his game going with Chris Paul ailing and LeBron James and Anthony Davis warming up. Like the regular season, narrowing down point guard options is going to be difficult.

Shooting Guard

Stud

C.J. McCollum’s 12 field-goal attempts in Game 2 were his fewest since April 30 against Brooklyn. His 26 fantasy points were his fewest in two weeks. Like Lillard, McCollum is in another spot where he can put up points. He is the top-rated shooting guard on FanDuel and leads the position with a 4.42 Projected Plus/Minus.

Value

Donte DiVincenzo ceded fantasy points to Bryn Forbes and Pat Connaughton in Game 2 but is the clear leader of the trio to stuff the stat sheet. He is a top-three option on both platforms, and with the position being thin on FanDuel, is projected for high ownership.

Fastbreak

Devin Booker continues to score points but finished Game 2 with a deflated line. It’s difficult to ask for more out of Booker because he is the Suns’ primary scorer. He is shooting 30% from 3, so improvement there will go a long way. Booker has been excellent from the free-throw line, making 22-of-23 attempts, including a perfect 17-for-17 Tuesday.

Norman Powell has been a better real-life player than DFS player against Denver. He has not hit his projection on DraftKings since May 2 or FanDuel since May 10 despite scoring in double figures in all but one game over that time span. Powell is listed as a SG/SF on DraftKings and only at small forward on FanDuel.

Small Forward

Stud

Jimmy Butler was a non-factor Game 2 and must find a way to get going as the series shifts to Miami.

Butler and the Heat small forwards have the best matchup using Opponent Plus/Minus, and Butler has the highest PER at the position. Every game is a must-win in the playoffs, but a loss tonight all but ends Miami’s playoffs. Butler is the top-rated small forward on DraftKings and second on FanDuel.

Value

Jae Crowder’s game is more effective against Anthony Davis, and with Andre Drummond playing well at center, look for Crowder to see more AD. He has the least volatility to me among small forwards priced lower.

Fastbreak

LeBron James has attempted only seven free throws in two games. His ankle is going to be a concern for the Lakers’ playoff run, but his inability to confidently drive to the basket changes the dynamic of the offense, especially with AD taking more jump shots.

Is Khris Middleton back? Even in limited time in Game 2’s blowout win, he put up 17 points in 24 minutes and only missed one shot — including free throws — all game. He is a mismatch for any Heat player not named Jimmy Butler.

Mikal Bridges rates well on FanDuel, but his defensive duties of guarding LeBron are zapping his offensive upside.

Michael Porter Jr. has been a focus of the Trail Blazers’ defense. He is only shooting 33% from 3 and has had one positive shooting performance in three games. His salary has dropped $1,100 on DraftKings, and he’s the top-rated power forward and only behind Butler at the three.

Power Forward

Stud

It’s Giannis Antetokounmpo and everyone else. Only Nikola Jokic has a higher fantasy projection on both platforms. He has been so good that slate-leading salary is still considered a decent bargain, falling between 48-52%.

Value

Aaron Gordon has stepped up with MPJ seeing extra attention. Gordon has been asked to be a facilitator with Orlando, and with Jokic’s potential assists number being capped this series, it would be nice to see Denver use Gordon as a point forward. He has Leverage scores over 86% on both sites.

Fastbreak

Aggressive AD is good AD. I doubt we see 21 free-throw attempts from him tonight, but if he can get a floor of six attempts per game, the Lakers will be in good shape.

Robert Covington has been limited in DFS because of defensive assignments, but he has seen his salary drop $500 on DraftKings and can trip into a double-double as a solid rebounder and a decent threat from 3.

Center

Studs

Nikola Jokic is the top-rated center on FanDuel, while Bam Adebayo tops the list on DraftKings.

Adebayo has something to prove as the Bucks have limited his effectiveness. Jokic and Bam have the best matchups using Opponent Plus/Minus.

Value

Dewayne Dedmond has a 99% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and is only $3,100. Two games of bad Bam may be a fluke, but three games is a trend when dealing with small sample sizes in the playoffs.

Fastbreak

LA’s commitment to Drummond on center paid off Game 2. He logged a double-double, shot the ball well, and limited Deandre Ayton enough, mainly on the boards.

The Chris Paul injury puts more pressure on Ayton, which opens the door for Drummond to take advantage of the inconsistent play throughout his career. At the very least, Drummond should be playing consistently over Marc Gasol because his PER dwarfs Gasol’s.

Jusuf Nurkic shot 25% in Game 2 and was still only three points from a double-double. His health may be more important than Lillard’s with how well he has been playing against Jokic.

Photo Credit: Bart Young/NBAE via Getty Images.
Pictured: Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum.