NBA DFS Breakdown (Saturday, Feb. 20): Damian Lillard Will Shred the Wizards

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Saturday features a five-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.

Point Guard

Stud

No point guard on today’s slate has been better over the past month than Damian Lillard.

He leads the position with an average of 1.42 FanDuel points per minute over that time frame, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.92 over his past 10 games. He’s coming off a monster 73.8 FanDuel-point performance in his last game, and he’s in another amazing spot tonight vs. the Wizards.

Washington ranks first in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency this season, giving Lillard an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.47. The Blazers’ implied team total of 123.0 points is also the top mark on the slate by a sizable margin.

Lillard is a steal at just $9,900 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 84%.

Value

The Lakers are going to be without two of their top options vs. the Heat. Anthony Davis remains out of the lineup with a calf injury, while Dennis Schroder is out due to health and safety protocols. That opens up plenty of opportunities for the rest of the roster.

Alex Caruso figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He saw a nice spike in playing time in his last game, and he’s increased his usage rate by +2.9% with Davis and Schroder off the court this season. He’s averaged 0.74 DraftKings points per minute in that situation, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his $3,900 salary.

Fast Break

The Kings are another team that could be shorthanded. Richaun Holmes, Harrison Barnes, and Glenn Robinson III are all questionable, and De’Aaron Fox could be asked to pick up the slack. He also owns an elite matchup vs. the Bulls, who rank fourth in pace and 19th in defensive efficiency. The Kings’ implied team total of 118.5 is tied for the second-highest mark on the slate.

You can’t go wrong with Steph Curry on most nights. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games on DraftKings and an 81% Consistency Rating over the past month. He’s in a great spot against the Hornets, who have been a disaster defensively with Devonte’ Graham off the court this season.

Shooting Guard

Stud

Speaking of the Hornets, Terry Rozier has commanded an insane workload recently. He’s played at least 40.9 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s unsurprisingly finished with at least 52.4 FanDuel points in both contests. He’s currently projected for 37.8 minutes in our NBA Models, which is the top mark on the slate regardless of position.

He should also benefit from Graham being out of the lineup, and he leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel. He’s also one of the best pure values on FanDuel, where his $7,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.

Value

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is another player who should benefit from the Lakers’ current injury situation. He’s projected for 29.4 minutes vs. the Heat, which is a lot of playing time for someone who costs just $3,500 on DraftKings. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.20 (per the Trends tool).

Wesley Matthews is an even cheaper option for the Lakers, but KCP has been significantly better on a per-minute basis this season.

Fast Break

Tyler Herro is no longer starting for the Heat, but a move to the bench has done nothing to hurt his fantasy value. If anything, he’s been playing better in that role, scoring at least 38.0 DraftKings points in three straight games. He should continue to see a healthy dose of playing time with Goran Dragic out of the lineup, and he’s seen a usage bump of +2.0% in 10 games without Dragic this season.

Andrew Wiggins has been extremely consistent recently. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 93% over the past month on FanDuel, yet his salary has decreased by -$600 over that time frame. He doesn’t offer the highest ceiling, but he’s a good bet to get around 30 fantasy points vs. the Hornets.

Small Forward

Stud

LeBron James is truly incredible.

He entered the year saying he was going to prioritize load management, so naturally, he’s played in every single game to start the season. The fact that Davis and Schroder are out of the lineup means it’s even less likely that James gets the night off against his former team.

James remains as effective as ever in his 18th season — he’s averaged 1.49 DraftKings points per minute over the past month — and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games on DraftKings. He’s also increased his usage rate by +2.6% with Davis and Schroder off the court this season, so he carries a bit more upside than usual. His floor is as safe as it gets in fantasy, so a bit more ceiling makes James an appealing option.

Value

Sticking with the Lakers, Talen Horton-Tucker is another player who should see a boost in playing time for as long as Schroder is sidelined.

He led the reserves with 27.7 minutes in their last game, and he responded with 20.5 DraftKings points. He also shot just 3-9 from the field in that contest, so he has the potential for better performances moving forward. Overall, he’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s a dangerous player when he’s on the floor. That makes him an elite value at just $3,600 on DraftKings.

Fast Break

Garrett Temple has been super steady for the Bulls recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.90 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s scored at least 28.0 FanDuel points in two of his past three games. He’s underpriced at just $4,200, particularly in a juicy matchup vs. the Kings. Sacramento ranks dead last in defensive efficiency this season, and Temple’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.1 ranks first at the position.

Kelly Oubre has quietly heated up after a disastrous start to the season. He couldn’t make a shot to save his life to start the year — he shot 4.8% from 3-point range in December and 27.5% in January — but he’s shot a blistering 46.7% through his first 10 games in February. Believe it or not, being able to make a jump shot is a good thing from a fantasy perspective, so it’s not surprising that Oubre has scored at least 38.0 DraftKings points in four of his past five games.

Power Forward

Stud

Power forward is probably the weakest position on today’s slate, but Draymond Green stands out as an elite value on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $6,600, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and he’s increased his production to 1.0 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

He’s also seen a bump in playing time with James Wiseman and Kevon Looney both out of the lineup with injuries. Green is a strong target in a plus-matchup against the Hornets.

Value

Mo Wagner got run off the court in the Wizards’ last game. He had no chance against Nikola Jokic, so head coach Scott Brooks pulled him after just three minutes of playing time. He finished with zero fantasy points in an extremely disappointing performance.

That said, tonight’s matchup vs. the Blazers is much friendlier, so Wagner should return to his normal workload. He played at least 22.3 minutes in his previous two games, and Wagner has averaged 1.03 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.

Fast Break

Bam Adebayo is listed as a power forward on FanDuel, and he easily owns the highest ceiling at the position. He leads all PFs with 10 Pro Trends, and he’s also averaged the most FanDuel points per minute and is projected for the most minutes on today’s slate.

P.J. Washington is expected to return to the lineup tonight for the Hornets, and he has the potential to be an excellent value. He’s averaged 0.98 FanDuel points per minute, and he’s currently projected for 28.3 minutes in our NBA Models.

Center

Stud

Jonas Valanciunas has been a solid fantasy option recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.22 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and he’s increased his fantasy production to 1.38 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

The Grizzlies also just released a lengthy injury report for Saturday’s matchup vs. the Suns, and they’ll be without Brandon Clarke, Dillon Brooks, Kyle Anderson, and Grayson Allen. That opens up plenty of usage for the majority of the roster, and Valanciunas should be one of the biggest beneficiaries.

Value

Wendell Carter Jr. looks like an excellent option on DraftKings, where his $5,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He also holds an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.52 vs. the Kings, which is easily the top mark at the position. Carter Jr. has played limited minutes since returning to the lineup from an extended injury absence, but his playing time should continue to increase moving forward.

Fast Break

Enes Kanter stands out as the best value at the position on FanDuel. He owns a Bargain Rating of 84%, and he should be able to have his way on the interior vs. the Wizards. Kanter has struggled a bit recently, but he’s averaged 1.15 FanDuel points per minute this season and has played at least 30.5 minutes in back-to-back games.

Deandre Ayton has been priced down to just $6,600 on FanDuel, which makes him a very interesting buy-low target. He’s only been priced with a comparable salary in 23 previous instances, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.89 in those contests.

Photo Credit: Ned Dishman/NBAE via Getty Images.
Pictured: Damian Lillard.