NBA DFS Breakdown (Thursday, July 1): Who Will Step Up for Milwaukee?

The Eastern Conference Finals between the Bucks and Hawks shifts back to Milwaukee for Game 5, and it’s the only game on Thursday’s slate. Lineups lock at 8:30 p.m. ET.

If you are unfamiliar with single-game/showdown slates, check out Matt LaMarca’s primers for DraftKings and FanDuel before constructing rosters.

Series Review

The Atlanta Hawks tied the series in Game 4 without the services of Trae Young because of a right foot bone bruise. Bogdan Bogdanovic helped lead the Hawks to a win with his best game in weeks after being injured himself.

The big news during and after the game was Giannis Antetokounmpo exiting with a hyperextended left knee. The replays showed as much, but it looked awful. Giannis is doubtful for Game 5, and I think I can speak for most by saying, thankfully, he did not have worse happen to him.

The Bucks star was not the only player with injury concerns. Clint Capela was elbowed in his right eye and is dealing with inflammation. Capela and Young are considered questionable for Atlanta. Bogdanovic is listed as probable (knee) after his strong Game 4.

The Bucks are 2.5-point favorites, and the game total is 214.5 points, down 1.5 points from where it opened.

Studs

I will assume Giannis is out for Game 5, especially after missing the remainder of Game 4. He is the top-priced player on FanDuel and DraftKings.

Young follows in pricing and could be a make-or-break option if he does play. His presence could be the difference between Atlanta closing out the series at home or fighting in another trip to Milwaukee. Young did go through shootaround prior to Game 4 and did everything possible to play. If he was that close to suiting up Game 4, it’s difficult to imagine him missing Game 5. His assumed limitations with motion and shooting drop Young in the NBA Model.

Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton project to outscore Young on both platforms.

Middleton’s salary is up despite turning back into a pumpkin Game 4. He is the perceived leader on offense without Giannis. Middleton averaged 22.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 5.6 assists in eight games without him. If Antetokounmpo is indeed out, 20-plus field goal attempts are in play for Middleton.

Holiday is the player that must make the biggest jump sans Giannis. He averaged only three more points, 0.8 assists, and 0.1 without the Greek Freak. After his Game 1 outburst, Holiday has not topped 40 fantasy points on either site. Guarding Lou Williams is not the same as guarding Young, so there’s a risk of him maintaining a point production in the mid-30s because of his defensive assignment.

Midrange

Bogdanovic’s Game 4 fantasy output was his best since May 13. His knee soreness was clearly hampering him, and Game 4 appeared to be the first time Bogdanovic felt comfortable with a full workload. His salary on FanDuel jumped $4,000 compared to $800 on DraftKings.

No Giannis means more opportunities for John Collins and Clint Capela if he plays.

The two have been tasked with single and help defense on Giannis, and while Bobby Portis has been good in spurts, he’s not the dominant force offensively who takes players out of their game on the other end of the court.

A cheaper Collins projects to outscore teammates Kevin Huerter and Bogdanovic on FanDuel and Huerter on DraftKings. Where Collins could lose ground is seeing a lot of P.J. Tucker and Portis. The two are excellent defenders despite not being physically imposing like Antetokounmpo.

Portis could slide into the starting lineup, and FanDuel prices him that way. He could also be a popular captain on DraftKings at only $6,600 with an expected jump in minutes and opportunity.

The re-emergence of Bogdanovic hurts Danilo Gallinari the most. Short of going on a heater like he did in Game 3, Gallinari’s minutes should remain around 20.

Huerter had his best fantasy game of the series without Young in the lineup. I doubt Young’s return hurts Huerter much because there’s a lot unknown about how well Young will look shooting the ball.

Values & Punts

P.J. Tucker’s usage hit 11.5% Game 4 because of the Giannis injury. He’s still not a reliable source for offense, but the opportunities will be there for supplemental scoring.

Lou Williams’ value is tied to Trae Young’s availability. He could still play more minutes than usual with/in place of Young, but Williams’ ceiling is capped with Young active.

Pat Connaughton has not scored in double figures since Game 5 against the Brooklyn Nets, but he can get there with an expected bump in minutes. He also contributes in all five categories, collecting stats in 4-of-5 categories three times this series.

Cam Reddish’s Game 4 outburst was a product of a blowout. Expect him to play only a handful of minutes, if at all, in Game 5.

Onyeka Okongwu will be a free space if Capela is out. His salary gives some of the best flexibility on DraftKings. He’s priced at $8,500 on FanDuel, and while that appears pricey, he could outscore others in his range (sorry P.J.) with his strong paint presence.

Photo Credit: David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images.

Pictured: Thanasis Antetokounmpo (left), Brook Lopez (center), and Khris Middleton (right).