Identifying value is paramount to success in NBA DFS. If we want to be able to roster the high-floor/high-ceiling premium players like Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and others, concessions – in the form of low priced players – need to be made. Lucky for us, value is constantly popping up due the nature of the NBA. Whether it be injuries, rest or rotational changes, it is not uncommon to find players thrust into more meaningful roles on a regular basis in this league. When such changes occur, daily fantasy sites generally won’t have the ability to update the player’s pricing to reflect their new role and playing time and this is where we find our value.
At FantasyLabs, we like to take things one step further. Not only will we be identifying players based upon their expected fantasy output in relation to their price, we’ll be incorporating our Bargain Rating into the equation whenever possible as well. If you’re unfamiliar with this metric, I recommend taking a look at this short video from our co-founder Jonathan Bales on how he uses this rating within our Player Models tool.
Please note, this article is written earlier in the day. As much of the news surrounding the NBA breaks near tip off, please monitor our Player News page for all relevant updates.
Point Guard
Mario Chalmers – $5,200
Chalmers emerged as the chalk at point guard later in the day on Monday and will likely claim that title once again tonight.
While the Grizzlies are expected to get Matt Barnes back tonight, they’ll still be operating with a depleted unit, with Mike Conley and Zach Randolph confirmed out.
Because of these absences – and his price – Chalmers ranks highly in many categories this evening; particularly of interest is his high Projected Plus/Minus ranking.
(Note: widget above is interactive; check them out here.)
Chalmers has a Projected Plus/Minus of +14.4, by far the highest on tonight’s slate and one of the highest we’ve seen all year.
Turning to our Trends tool, we can see that such a situation is generally a very positive sign for a player, with the Trend producing a ridiculous Plus/Minus of +12.63.
At his price and the thin roster of the Grizzlies, it’s difficult to imagine Chalmers not returning solid value tonight.
Shooting Guard
J.R. Smith – $4,700
Smith has a dream matchup against a Kings team that has struggled to stop opposing shooting guards this season, particularly those that can hit from deep.
Turning to our Trends tool again, we can see that opposing shooting guards that average at least two made 3-point field goal attempts per game – which Smith does – have averaged a solid +5.19 Plus/Minus. Among the results of this group is a February performance from Smith himself, when he took advantage of Sacramento’s weak perimeter defense, knocking down six 3s on his way to 35 DraftKings (DK) points.
After Cleveland’s debacle against Memphis, expect this team to come out ready to play this evening, Smith included.
Small Forward
Rudy Gay – $5,900
The matchup is actually quite putrid for Gay, as the Opponent Plus/Minus for his matchup against Cleveland tonight sits at -2.61.
His inclusion is purely an exploitation of his deflated price. It’s unlikely to see Gay have a huge game against LeBron and the Cavs, but at his price, he’s more than capable of reaching value with a solid outing.
Gay’s price decrease was actually quite swift on the part of DK. As we can see on the chart below, he has actually returned value at a decent clip over the past 10 games, but the three dud performances prompted a dramatic decrease (-$600 over four days).
With a 217.5 over/under, this game is certainly one that we want exposure to and Gay offers us that ability at a reasonable price tag.
Power Forward
JaMychal Green – $4,500
He’s going to be crazzzzy owned tonight. But at his price, I’m not sure that there is a lot to be gained from fading him. Even if he falls flat on his face in this matchup, it’s unlikely that his peripherals won’t get him at least close to hitting value.
The matchup is acceptable – he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.24 – and there is still no one around in this frontcourt. If Matt Barnes returns tonight, we’ll likely see him log time at the four, but there isn’t really any other threat to Green’s playing time.
As we see above, Green has a superb Plus/Minus rating similar to Chalmers. Both will be high owned, but make for really solid options.
Center
Al Jefferson – $4,800
Jefferson logged his highest minute total since returning from injury against Minnesota on Monday. Whether the minute boost was because they wanted Big Al to have a shot at a revenge game against the Wolves or not, I can’t say.
But if we see him log anywhere above 20 minutes tonight – we currently have him projected for 23.9, check out all projections at the Player Models page – he should be capable or returning solid value against a Pelicans squad that will have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.01 against Jefferson.
His minute volatility makes him too risky for cash, but at just $4,800, he carries enough upside for tournament consideration.
