Identifying value is paramount to success in NBA DFS. If we want to be able to roster the high-floor/high-ceiling premium players like Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and others, concessions – in the form of low priced players – need to be made. Lucky for us, value is constantly popping up due the nature of the NBA. Whether it be injuries, rest or rotational changes, it is not uncommon to find players thrust into more meaningful roles on a regular basis in this league. When such changes occur, daily fantasy sites generally won’t have the ability to update the player’s pricing to reflect their new role and playing time and this is where we find our value.
At FantasyLabs, we like to take things one step further. Not only will we be identifying players based upon their expected fantasy output in relation to their price, we’ll be incorporating our Bargain Rating into the equation whenever possible as well. If you’re unfamiliar with this metric, I recommend taking a look at this short video from our co-founder Jonathan Bales on how he uses this rating within our Player Models tool.
Please note, this article is written earlier in the day. As much of the news surrounding the NBA breaks near tip off, please monitor our Player News page for all relevant updates.
Point Guard
Norris Cole – $5,000
Cole’s inclusion comes with a large caveat due to his questionable status for this evening’s game. I’m moving forward under the assumption that he’ll be in the lineup for a Pelicans team that will be without Eric Gordon, but be sure to confirm his status – which you can do by either following the @FantasyLabsNBA Twitter account or monitoring our Player News page. If he doesn’t suit up, Toney Douglas is almost minimum priced and would be in line for huge minutes.
If he can suit up, Cole will face off against a Sacramento team that has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.03. Coming off of two difficult matchups against the Utah Jazz and the San Antonio Spurs – and having the questionable tag by his name – we should see Cole’s ownership levels at a very reasonable level tonight, as most players will flock to Jrue Holiday (who is a great play as well, but far more expensive than we’ll consider in this column).
Turning to our Trends tool, we can see that Cole has had success when we’ve projected him to see at least 30 minutes when he’s in a plus matchup (defined as an Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.1 here).
Again, confirm his status before rolling him out, but he will offer plenty of upside if he’s able to play.
Shooting Guard
Zach LaVine – $6,000
Value is sparse at shooting guard tonight, which makes LaVine a very attractive option. His price is rising on DraftKings (DK) quickly – his Bargain Rating is down to 6% – but the production and playing time have warranted it.
His playing time and role are so steady right now that the price tag really isn’t that much of a detriment. LaVine actually even withstood the whole team benching by Sam Mitchell last Friday and has averaged over 38 minutes per game over his previous five.
I’m not sure the ceiling is elite for him, but coming off five straight games with 30-plus DK points, his floor is really nice at this price.
Small Forward
Rudy Gay – $5,900
The matchup isn’t great, but this is the lowest we’ve seen Gay priced all season. Looking at only price, this certainly appears to be a situation we can exploit.
With Gay’s price down $900 over the past month – and carrying a 93% Bargain Rating – it’s tough to imagine him not returning decent value in a matchup featuring a 219 total.
Despite a constantly fluctuating lineup, the Pelicans have actually done a really solid job of limiting production from opposing small forwards this year, with an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.59. Obviously temper your expectations because of this, but feel free to fire up Gay if you need to spend down a small forward tonight.
Power Forward
Ryan Anderson – $5,500
Anderson is a tournament play and a risky one at that. But at his price, he’s worth considering based upon the matchup and the projected game total we talked about above.
Sacramento struggles mightily against opposing power forwards, allowing an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.09 to players who we had projected to play at least 25 minutes. Taking that a step further, the Kings have particularly struggled against power forwards that can stretch the floor.
As we can see in the Trend above, when facing opposing power forwards that are averaging at least three 3-point field goal attempts per game (Anderson averages over five), Sacramento has allowed +6.89 points over salary-based expectation.
Understand the floor is really, really low, but the ceiling could be elite, making Anderson a quality tournament option.
Center
Cody Zeller – $4,300
Another option more geared towards tournament lineups (noticing a trend here?), Zeller’s price is something that we can look to exploit this evening.
Sitting at a mere $4,300, he has a Bargain Rating of 86% on DK in a matchup with a Minnesota team that has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.49 against opposing centers.
Zeller has been really solid the past three games, averaging 25.36 minutes and 27.67 DK points per outing. And with Charlotte projected to score 112 points tonight, Zeller is a likely candidate to return solid value at his price point once again.
