Identifying value is paramount to success in NBA DFS. If we want to be able to roster the high-floor/high-ceiling premium players like Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and others, concessions – in the form of low priced players – need to be made. Lucky for us, value is constantly popping up due the nature of the NBA. Whether it be injuries, rest or rotational changes, it is not uncommon to find players thrust into more meaningful roles on a regular basis in this league. When such changes occur, daily fantasy sites generally won’t have the ability to update the player’s pricing to reflect their new role and playing time and this is where we find our value.
At FantasyLabs, we like to take things one step further. Not only will we be identifying players based upon their expected fantasy output in relation to their price, we’ll be incorporating our Bargain Rating into the equation whenever possible as well. If you’re unfamiliar with this metric, I recommend taking a look at this short video from our co-founder Jonathan Bales on how he uses this rating within our Player Models tool.
Please note, this article is written earlier in the day. As much of the news surrounding the NBA breaks near tip off, please monitor our Player News page for all relevant updates.
Point Guard
Elfrid Payton – $5,200
Payton is in a prime spot tonight, as he’ll have the opportunity to take on a Suns team that has been hemorrhaging points to opposing point guards since the All-Star Break. Utilizing our Trends tool, I’ve compiled a list comprised of point guards that we’ve projected to play at least 25 minutes per game and how they’ve fared against the Suns in games played since the All-Star Break.
The fact that the lowest DraftKings (DK) point total they’ve allowed to any of these players is 31 is enough to make me take on the risk of another Scott Skiles lineup debacle torpedoing my lineup once again. But because of Skiles’ propensity for pulling his starters without a real rhyme or reason, Payton remains in tournament-only territory for me.
Shooting Guard
J.R. Smith – $4,900
With Kevin Love confirmed out for tonight’s matchup with the Wizards, Smith is a likely candidate to see an uptick in usage; he has sported a usage rate of 21.4% without Love on the court, as opposed to 17.7% without him this season.
With Tyronn Lue already stating that he may want to rest starters in the first half of a back-to-back this evening, we’ll need to monitor the news feed all day – which you can conveniently do by following the @FantasyLabsNBA Twitter account or monitoring our Player News page – to confirm the status of this lineup, as it’s possible Smith himself could end up with a night off. But assuming he plays, the matchup against Washington is quite inviting, particularly at his price tag.
As we can see in the chart above, the Wizards are second in Average Plus/Minus allowed this year against opposing shooting guards. Further working in Smith’s favor is Washington’s inability to close out on opposing 3-point shooters. They allow the second-highest field goal percentage on opponent’s 3-point attempts. And in a game where we’re expecting increased usage from Smith, we can expect him to take plenty of 3s – this is after all, a player that is taking over 57% of his shots from downtown this year.
Again, confirm his status prior to locking him into your lineups this evening. But if he plays, he should offer a nice return on investment.
Small Forward
Shabazz Muhammad – $4,200
I don’t really love any of the value under $6,000 at small forward at the time of this writing. Because we’re dealing with the NBA, it’s possible more value will pop up throughout the day, but as of now I’m unimpressed.
Mirza Teletovic is in play for tournaments, but his price tag is ridiculous on DK, as he holds a 1% Bargain Rating. And some of our usual targets in Matt Barnes and Robert Covington have horrible matchups.
Which brings us to Shabazz.
The price is cheap enough that if he flops, it’s not going to destroy your lineup. And of the comparable options around his price point, he’s the only one with a reasonable path to returning 7-8x value in a nice matchup with the Bucks.
Milwaukee has an Opponent Plus/Minus rating of +1.11 against opposing small forwards. Not optimal, but more than acceptable.
One look at Muhammad’s recent performance in comparison to his pricing is enough to put him into consideration at small forward for me tonight.
Playing time is a bit of a concern, but he has received no less than 20 minutes in a game since the All-Star Break. Ideally we’d like to see more than that, but at $4,200 – and given his ability to produce fantasy points in bunches – it’s tough to ask for a ton more.
Power Forward
Julius Randle – $5,900
Randle is in a really solid spot tonight, taking on a Hawks team that has the second-worst rebound differential in the league. And what we’ve seen from Randle over the past couple of months is that in order for him to have a really big game, he’s going to have to put up monster rebound numbers.
On the positive side, we can be reasonably assured that he will take between 8-13 shots on any given night – he’s done so in 61% of his games this year. On the downside, he’s eclipsed 15 shots on only four occasions all season. This makes him a reasonably safe play in cash games, but does tend to limit his upside for tournaments, particularly because he’s priced so accurately based upon his average performances of late.
So if we want to consider him in tournaments, what do we need from him to believe that their could be some ceiling here? Well in the six games that he’s produced at least 40 DK points this season, Randle has averaged 15.83 and recorded 14 or more rebounds in five of the six contests.
Expanding our view a bit, Randle has managed 14 or more rebounds on nine occasions this season and has averaged 39.8 DK points over the course of these contests. So if he can exploit the Hawks weak rebounding game, there should be a lot of potential for a big game tonight.
I actually think Randle has decent upside tonight and makes for a quality play in both cash and tournament formats.
Center
Alex Len – $5,700
Len is the perfect example of a player that really just needs playing time, and once you give it to him, he doesn’t disappoint. He’ll probably continue to be a popular play tonight after his recent hot streak, but I’m not sure now is the right time to get cute and fade him.
The Magic have given up their fair share of production to opposing centers this season, allowing a Plus/Minus of +4.79 to opposing centers that we’ve projected for a minimum of 25 minutes or more.
With Len currently projected to play well over 30 minutes this evening – as always, subscribers make sure to check out full projections for all players on tonight’s slate on our Player Models page – he should have no trouble returning solid value once again.
