Identifying value is paramount to success in NBA DFS. If we want to be able to roster the high-floor/high-ceiling premium players like Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and others, concessions – in the form of low priced players – need to be made. Lucky for us, value is constantly popping up due the nature of the NBA. Whether it be injuries, rest or rotational changes, it is not uncommon to find players thrust into more meaningful roles on a regular basis in this league. When such changes occur, daily fantasy sites generally won’t have the ability to update the player’s pricing to reflect their new role and playing time, and this is where we find our value.
At FantasyLabs, we like to take things one step further. Not only will we be identifying players based upon their expected fantasy output in relation to their price, we’ll also be incorporating Bargain Rating into the equation whenever possible. If you’re unfamiliar with this metric, I recommend taking a look at this short video from our co-founder Jonathan Bales on how he uses this rating within our Player Models tool.
Please note, this article is written earlier in the day. As much of the news surrounding the NBA breaks near tip off, please monitor our Player News page for all relevant updates. Also, all salaries presented below are for DraftKings (DK).
Point Guard
Jose Juan Barea – $4,600
With Deron Williams out again tonight, Jose Juan (JJ) Barea should see another start at point guard. With the state of this offense at the moment, this game sets up well for another solid effort from the diminutive guard.
At the moment, we have Barea projected to play just over 30 minutes against the Nuggets — as always, subscribers can find all projections on our Player Models page — which is worth noting, as he’s found success in comparable situations previously this season. Turning to our Trends tool, we can see that Barea has shown solid upside this year anytime we’ve projected him to play a minimum of 30 minutes.
The matchup with Denver is a solid one, as the Nuggets will have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.04 against Barea.
As it stands, he’s a solid low-cost option for cash games and has flashed enough ceiling to consider in tournaments if needed as well.
Shooting Guard
Raymond Felton – $4,300
Seeing a boost in minutes with Deron Williams and Chandler Parsons out of the lineup, Raymond Felton deserves consideration at just $4,300 on DK tonight.
Felton has now posted back-to-back 30-plus DK points/30-plus minute outings and there is no real reason to assume he won’t see comparable playing time again tonight with the Mavericks missing multiple key pieces of their lineup.
Knowing that we should see solid playing time from Felton at just $4,300 is great, but even better is that we should see these quality minutes take place in a plus-matchup. Featuring an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.23 against Felton tonight, the Nuggets are a team that opposing shooting guards have had success against this year, which should suit Felton well.
Wes Matthews is also viable, but costs $700 more than Felton and has a comparable ceiling and floor in this matchup, which pushes me towards the savings offered by rostering Felton.
Small Forward
Al-Farouq Aminu – $4,100
Somewhat surpisingly, Al-Farouq Aminu has actually been looking for his shot of late, having posted double-digit field-goal attempts in three of his last four outings. Always a solid source of peripherals, this added scoring has allowed Aminu to return great value of late.
Of particular note is the fact that Aminu has averaged nine 3-point attempts per game over his past four. And tonight he just so happens to face off against a Kings squad that is allowing the most 3-point field goal makes per game on the season. If he’s on, there’s a lot of potential for him tonight.
Because of the general volatility of his play, Aminu and his 95% Bargain Rating will be best utilized in tournament formats this evening.
Power Forward
Gorgui Dieng – $6,000
The matchup isn’t ideal for tonight for Gorgui Dieng, but with a Bargain Rating of 86% on DK, he’s a solid value option. Dieng’s price has proven to be very volatile this year, fluctuating constantly. At the moment, he’s down $800 from last month, this despite three outings last week of 37-plus DK points.
The fact that he had a subpar outing against the Jazz on Saturday combined with the fact that he’s sitting only $100 lower than Kristaps Porzingis — who is likely to be high-owned tonight — should help ensure that his ownership will stay quite low, making him a quality tournament option.
At just $6,000 there is plenty of room for Dieng to provide a solid return on your investment tonight, despite the sub-optimal matchup.
Center
Robin Lopez – $5,400
Coming off of a couple of poor outings, Robin Lopez should be primed for a bounce-back performance against the Pelicans tonight.
We’ve touched on it plenty in this space in the past, but I’ll re-visit again: when the matchup is right, Lopez offers an elite ceiling. But as he displayed in his recent performances against a Bulls team that was a very strong matchup, he is volatile — after going off for 41.25 DK points, he followed up his effort the following night with a mere four shots and 18.25 DK points — which will limit him to tournament-only territory again tonight.
At his price, it’s just going to be very difficult to ignore this ridiculously positive matchup. With an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.37, the Pelicans injury-riddled frontcourt is likely to have a tough time keeping the active Lopez off of the boards.
