Identifying value is paramount to success in NBA DFS. If we want to be able to roster the high-floor/high-ceiling premium players like Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and others, concessions – in the form of low priced players – need to be made. Lucky for us, value is constantly popping up due the nature of the NBA. Whether it be injuries, rest or rotational changes, it is not uncommon to find players thrust into more meaningful roles on a regular basis in this league. When such changes occur, daily fantasy sites generally won’t have the ability to update the player’s pricing to reflect their new role and playing time, and this is where we find our value.
At FantasyLabs, we like to take things one step further. Not only will we be identifying players based upon their expected fantasy output in relation to their price, we’ll also be incorporating Bargain Rating into the equation whenever possible. If you’re unfamiliar with this metric, I recommend taking a look at this short video from our co-founder Jonathan Bales on how he uses this rating within our Player Models tool.
Please note, this article is written earlier in the day. As much of the news surrounding the NBA breaks near tip off, please monitor our Player News page for all relevant updates. Also, all salaries presented below are for DraftKings.
Point Guard
Darren Collison – $5,100
Collison’s incredibly solid run has yet to lead to a major jump in price. After his $500 increase, DraftKings (DK) dropped Collison’s salary immediately back to $5,100 after one down game. In a juicy matchup against Phoenix tonight, Collison may be in an ideal spot to exploit that.
His matchup with the Suns will see Phoenix sporting an outrageous Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.65, and Vegas has set the total on this game at 220. Turning to our Trends tool, we can see that an incredibly high Opponent Plus/Minus combined with a high game total have generally correlated with very positive results.
The combination of Collison’s Opponent Plus/Minus and the high game total is actually so rare that I had to adjust the criteria down to get any sort of semi-reasonable population. In total, there are only four other players in our database to have had such a positive combination of these two factors in the past. Their combined Plus/Minus sits at +11.51.
And Collison himself is actually one of these four previous matches. This past December, under similar circumstances, he torched the Rockets for 42.25 DK points.
This Phoenix backcourt is highly exploitable in general, and Collison should see his fair share of both Brandon Knight and Devin Booker, neither of whom should give you any pause if you’re considering rostering Collison tonight.
Shooting Guard
Kevin Martin – $3,000
Martin’s inclusion in the column is probably a little too-outside-the-box for cash games tonight, as he has a very real chance of posting single-digit DK points. But since the Spurs are without Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green and Patty Mills (and since Manu Ginobli will likely be limited, having played no more than 22 minutes in the past two months), someone is going to need to log minutes for San Antonio.
Against the Heat on Wednesday, Martin played 15 minutes and responded with 15 DK points. And while Memphis has an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.6 against Martin tonight, their defensive prowess isn’t quite what it was earlier this year. In the month of March, they’ve allowed an average Plus/Minus to opposing wings of +2.09.
At only $3,000, Martin has the potential upside to offer a great return for his owners tonight. If he were to be announced as the starter at shooting guard, he may be worth a look in cash games as a cheap punt play. If not, I’d likely limit exposure to tournament lineups.
Small Forward
Matt Barnes – $4,900
Yes, Barnes’ matchup on paper looks ridiculously scary (the Spurs will have an Opponent Plus/Minus of -6.17 against him) but they will be without Kawhi Leonard this evening, so the situation should be one in which Barnes can find success. With a Bargain Rating of 99%, he is simply too inexpensive on DK, regardless of who he’s playing. At just $4,900, he has a salary-adjusted expectation of only 21.25 points, a mark he has met in four of his previous five games.
When we see such a high Bargain Rating on a player projected to play heavy minutes (we have Barnes projected for 34 minutes tonight), we should look to exploit that situation, particularly for reasonably priced players.
Turning to the Trends tool again, I’ve pulled the results of all players with a Bargain Rating of at least 99%, a playing-time projection of at least 25 minutes, and a salary under $5,000 on DK.
With Zach Randolph ruled out, Barnes should be set for a bit of a usage bump, which keeps him in play in all formats.
Power Forward
Jon Leuer – $4,100
Fresh off of logging over 40 minutes Wednesday night, Leuer seems to be the clear preferred option over Mirza Teletovic (who saw 25 minutes) with Tyson Chandler out of the lineup. He’ll be incredibly popular, but at his price and in this matchup it’s difficult to get away from him tonight.
The Kings will have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.22 against Leuer, in a matchup that will carry a game total of 220. Cousins is probable to return to their lineup, but his presence hasn’t stopped the Kings from allowing heavy production to the position at any point this year thus far. If anything, Cousins’ return probably leads to additional concerns regarding Alex Len’s playing time, as his propensity to rack up early fouls will be tested as he tries to take on Cousins, which would only further solidify Leuer’s playing time.
Leuer isn’t an elite talent, but his price and opportunity are aligning perfectly at the moment, making him a quality option in all formats.
Center
Greg Monroe – $5,500
With a sub-$6k salary, Monroe is a player to use anytime he’s in a plus matchup. Jason Kidd’s rotation caps Monroe’s ceiling by limiting his minutes, but he’s talented enough to deliver big production in that limited playing time when the matchup is right. And I believe a matchup against an Atlanta team that allows the fifth-highest average Plus/Minus to the position certainly qualifies.
Monroe’s volatile playing time forces him into tournament territory, where his ceiling (the fifth-highest among all centers) makes him a solid option.
But if you’re looking to pay down even more at center, consider Salah Mejri, who has posted back-to-back double-doubles and is only $3,800.
