Identifying value is paramount to success in NBA DFS. If we want to be able to roster the high-floor/high-ceiling premium players like Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and others, concessions – in the form of low priced players – need to be made. Lucky for us, value is constantly popping up due the nature of the NBA. Whether it be injuries, rest or rotational changes, it is not uncommon to find players thrust into more meaningful roles on a regular basis in this league. When such changes occur, daily fantasy sites generally won’t have the ability to update the player’s pricing to reflect their new role and playing time, and this is where we find our value.
At FantasyLabs, we like to take things one step further. Not only will we be identifying players based upon their expected fantasy output in relation to their price, we’ll be incorporating our Bargain Rating into the equation whenever possible. If you’re unfamiliar with this metric, I recommend taking a look at this short video from our co-founder Jonathan Bales on how he uses this rating within our Player Models tool.
Please note, this article is written earlier in the day. As much of the news surrounding the NBA breaks near tip off, please monitor our Player News page for all relevant updates. Also, all salaries presented below are for DraftKings.
Point Guard
Jordan Clarkson – $5,200
Clarkson has been a disappointment of late but showed signs of life last night against Memphis. And though he recently struggled in a matchup against the Suns – who he’ll take on again this evening – the Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.46 is too good to ignore at his price.
Further strengthening his case is D’Angelo Russell’s questionable status for this evening’s game. If Russell is out, we should see Clarkson at point guard more than usual, with Lou Williams sliding in at Clarkson’s two-guard spot. While I really like the idea of exploiting Phoenix at the shooting guard spot, I love the idea of being able to attack them with an opposing point guard even more.
Between Byron Scott’s recent declaration that his young guards will stay on the court in the fourth quarter, and only a 5.5 point spread, we should see Clarkson on the court plenty tonight.
Despite everything above, I’d lean more tournament for Clarkson than cash, simply due to his very uneven play of late.
Shooting Guard
Zach LaVine – $6,000
With a game log that is the polar opposite of Clarkson’s, LaVine has proven to be a rock solid cash-game option over the past few weeks.
At $6,000, LaVine offers a solid floor and just enough upside for cash-game lineups to warrant his inclusion in the article this evening against a Kings team that will have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.6 against him.
Both Minnesota and Sacramento are in the bottom third of the league in defensive efficiency, which should make the 221 over/under very attainable by these squads tonight. Because of this, we should really attempt to gain exposure to this matchup in one form or another and LaVine offers that at a modest price.
His ceiling has been a bit limited for tournament lineups, but I wouldn’t hesitate locking him in to cash lineups tonight.
Small Forward
Omri Casspi – $4,000
As we spoke about above, the Minnesota/Sacramento matchup is one that we want to have some exposure to. And at just $4,000, Casspi offers you a chance to do that with a minimal investment.
Despite putting up almost 6x value over the past five games, DraftKings (DK) has chosen to drop Casspi’s price $200 after Monday night’s game.
The matchup is above average – Minnesota will have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.65 against him – and he should see a boost in usage with DeMarcus Cousins out. There’s some risk to utilizing him, as he’s proven volatile throughout the year, but the cost is low enough to absorb that risk tonight.
Power Forward
Markieff Morris – $4,900
Morris took advantage of his plus-matchup with the Hawks on Monday night, turning his 26.5 minutes into over 31 DK points. With the Wizards and Hawks set to square off again tonight, he’ll continue to represent solid value at a price tag of just $4,900. The Hawks have been subpar against opposing power forwards in general this year, allowing an average Plus/Minus of +4.03 against those that have been projected to play at least 25 minutes.
Atlanta has struggled to keep opposing big men off of the glass all season – they have the third worst rebound differential in the league – which resulted in Morris piling up seven boards in his limited playing time. With the Wizards entering “must win” territory as the season (and their playoff hopes) dwindle down, I’d expect Morris to play in the high-20 to low-30 minute range in a game featuring only a one-point spread.
At $4,900, Morris has been solid enough to consider in cash games and largely due to the matchup, he should have just enough upside to consider in tournaments.
Center
Robin Lopez – $5,700
We’ve targeted Lopez in this column plenty in the past, and if there is one thing I’ve noticed, it’s that we want to be utilizing him in plus-situations. He’s a somewhat limited player, but when everything lines up, the production can be absurd. And with his matchup against Chicago holding an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.65, this is definitely a spot that should have Lopez on our radar.
Utilizing our Trends tool, I’ve pulled the results of the last five matchups that have had an Opponent Plus/Mins of at least +2.0 for Lopez.
The results above perfectly illustrate why Lopez is an ideal tournament option, as while he’s capable of producing 45-50+ DK points in these matchups, his limited skill set can shine through at any moment and produce a dud of a game – such as his 6.75 DK point against Denver. With his minutes up of late – he’s played 33+ in four of five games – there’s real potential for a solid game from him tonight.
One final note – As I’m finishing up the column, the news of DeMarcus Cousins being out has just been released and with that, we’ll likely want to have plenty of exposure to Kosta Koufos at his minimum price tag of $3,000. Koufos will be an extremely popular play that should be viable in all formats tonight.
