Identifying value is paramount to success in NBA DFS. If we want to be able to roster the high-floor/high-ceiling premium players like Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and others, concessions – in the form of low priced players – need to be made. Lucky for us, value is constantly popping up due the nature of the NBA. Whether it be injuries, rest or rotational changes, it is not uncommon to find players thrust into more meaningful roles on a regular basis in this league. When such changes occur, daily fantasy sites generally won’t have the ability to update the player’s pricing to reflect their new role and playing time and this is where we find our value.
At FantasyLabs, we like to take things one step further. Not only will we be identifying players based upon their expected fantasy output in relation to their price, we’ll be incorporating our Bargain Rating into the equation whenever possible as well. If you’re unfamiliar with this metric, I recommend taking a look at this short video from our co-founder Jonathan Bales on how he uses this rating within our Player Models tool.
Please note, this article is written earlier in the day. As much of the news surrounding the NBA breaks near tip off, please monitor our Player News page for all relevant updates.
Point Guard
Patrick Beverly – $4,500
Beverly has quietly played very productive basketball since the All-Star Break, averaging 26.55 DraftKings (DK) points per game and hitting value in four of five games. Despite this, his price has actually dropped -$300 over the past week and -$400 over the previous month.
Price drops in general are always worth noting, but when they coincide with a player that has been producing and is remaining in the same role, I’m particularly interested.
Beverly has a good matchup tonight taking on a New Orleans teams that has an Opponent Plus/Minus – which is new and improved – of +1.9. Turning to our Trends tool, we can see that players that have had a price drop of at least -$400 over the previous month and are in a positive matchup (defined as an Opponent Plus/Minus greater than +1.0) have had success.
As a punt play, Beverly stands a really good chance of returning 5 to 6x value this evening.
Shooting Guard
Will Barton – $6,000
Barton hurt a lot of lineups on Monday, as his usage rate was ridiculously low (he attempted only nine shots). He’ll look to bounce back in a very exploitable matchup against the Lakers at home in Denver.
Looking at our Projected Plus/Minus of +8.0 should be your first sign that Barton is in a really, really good spot.
Not only is the Plus/Minus of +7.25 impressive, but the consistency is a really nice added bonus.
This is a spot to use recency bias to your advantage and not let it cloud your own judgement. Yes, he probably cost you money on Monday. But the matchup, opportunity, and price should allow him to return solid value tonight.
Small Forward
Matt Barnes – $5,800
The Kings are simply not good defensively as a whole – they are 25th in Defensive Efficiency – and particularly struggle against opposing small forwards, where they have an Opponent Plus/Minus rating of +4.19.
Averaging over 34 minutes per game since the All-Star Break – and Jeff Green’s departure – Barnes has returned solid value in four of the six contests. His ceiling is far from elite, but his playing time and matchup should add up to a solid return on investment against the Kings.
Power Forward
Bobby Portis – $4,800
This choice is partially dependent upon Taj Gibson’s availability for tonight’s game. If Gibson goes – he is doubtful as of this writing – I’d limit my exposure to Portis some.
Our projections on our Player Models page – as always, subscribers have access to fantasy point, usage rate, and minute projections for every player on the slate – has Portis pegged for 24.1 DK points and 25.9 minutes, or 0.93 DK points per minute. If Gibson sits, expect Portis to meet or exceed this, as he’s averaged 0.98 DK points per minute without Gibson on the floor this year.
The matchup against Orlando is very average – the Magic are middle of the pack in terms of both DK points allowed and average Plus/Minus against them – but not necessarily something we’d need to be afraid of at Portis’ price.
Center
Al Jefferson – $4,800
Jefferson is purely a tournament play, but one that should offer nice upside.
Philadelphia struggles against frontcourt players in general and they’re fresh off of allowing a huge game to Marcin Gortat.
He isn’t playing huge minutes, but did manage 29.75 DK points in less than 20 minutes last night. If he can see minutes near the mid-20’s, we could get a really nice return at Jefferson’s reduced price.
