Identifying value is paramount to success in NBA DFS. If we want to be able to roster the high-floor/high-ceiling premium players like Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and others, concessions – in the form of low priced players – need to be made. Lucky for us, value is constantly popping up due the nature of the NBA. Whether it be injuries, rest or rotational changes, it is not uncommon to find players thrust into more meaningful roles on a regular basis in this league. When such changes occur, daily fantasy sites generally won’t have the ability to update the player’s pricing to reflect their new role and playing time and this is where we find our value.
At FantasyLabs, we like to take things one step further. Not only will we be identifying players based upon their expected fantasy output in relation to their price, we’ll be incorporating our Bargain Rating into the equation whenever possible as well. If you’re unfamiliar with this metric, I recommend taking a look at this short video from our co-founder Jonathan Bales on how he uses this rating within our Player Models tool.
Please note, this article is written earlier in the day. As much of the news surrounding the NBA breaks near tip off, please monitor our Player News page for all relevant updates.
Point Guard
Deron Williams – $5,000
He won’t be popular tonight, and I myself have a tough time rostering him in general, as his production has been highly variable, but I’m on Williams for a couple of reasons this evening. First is the matchup – he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.31 and the game has an over/under of 226. And second is how Williams has performed after price drops of at -$500 – his price is now down -$900 over the past month – in positive matchups.
If we take a look at the widget below (which is interactive, by the way), we can see just how variable Williams’ performance has been all year. This has led to a large amount of peaks and valleys in not only his pricing, but his production (click on the “Season” option below to truly see the extent of this).
If we turn to our Trends tool, we can see that Williams has used these positive matchups to help bounce back from bouts of sub-par play (or at least implied sub-par play, as evidenced by the price reductions).
If nothing else, Williams allows us an opportunity to gain exposure to what should be a high-scoring, relatively close (at least in terms of many Warriors’ games) game tonight. Additionally, I don’t mind JJ Barea as a punt play this evening, as the matchup is also highly positive for him.
Shooting Guard
Zach LaVine – $6,000
LaVine has been so incredibly solid lately – he’s posted 30-plus DraftKings (DK) points in eight of his past 10 games – that I’m not sure how you can get away from him at his price, particularly considering his soft matchup tonight.
Facing off against a Rockets’ team that will have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.35 against him, it should be an advantageous situation for LaVine.
Largely due to James Harden’s lackluster defensive play – he holds a Defensive Real Plus-Minus rating of -0.8 – the Rockets have struggled mightily against shooting guards as a whole this year, allowing the fourth-highest average Plus/Minus to the position.
His ceiling isn’t the highest due to a lack of peripherals, but he makes for a really solid cash-game option once again this evening.
Small Forward
Marcus Morris – $5,100
A positive matchup and a high over/under – yeah, there are a lot of them tonight – have Morris on my radar at his price point. The options aren’t immense under $6,000 at the moment, so using Morris as a means to gain cheap access to a game with an over/under of 218.5 is relatively attractive tonight.
The matchup itself is solid enough, that Morris should be a good bet to hit value this evening – the Kings have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.75 against him and have struggled mightily against the position all year, allowing the second-highest Plus/Minus to opposing small forwards this season.
He’s not the sexiest choice on the board, but with his usual heavy allotment of minutes, his floor should be reasonably safe.
Power Forward
Gorgui Dieng – $6,200
If you have a power forward play under $6,000 that you like today, let me know, because I’m still searching. If you’re really stuck in a bind, I don’t hate Ryan Anderson and Serge Ibaka is fine, but neither are options I’m really interested in targeting. Instead, I’d recommend trying to find a way to at least get up to Dieng at $6,200.
His play had fallen off over the previous month, but he’s bounced back nicely over the previous week.
Again targeting a Houston squad that has struggled defensively as a whole – they rank 23rd in Defensive Efficiency – seems like the correct move here. The Rockets have been abysmal against the power forward position as a whole this year – they’re third in DK points per game and fourth in average Plus/Minus allowed – and their Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.37 against Dieng tonight should be very exploitable.
He is probable with a sore left hip at the moment, so make sure to confirm his availability prior to tip if you’re utilizing him tonight.
Center
Enes Kanter – $5,200
Yes, if Valanciunas sits, Biyombo is the no-brainer play against Boston. But, he did play really heavy minutes last night and everyone is going to be on him this evening. Everyone.
I’ll certainly have some exposure to him if he plays, because the price is just too cheap to gain much from by fading him.
But if I’m looking at comparably-priced options that should offer the same type of upside as Biyombo, Kanter immediately comes to mind.
On Wednesday I touched on the fact that Kanter has been producing at ridiculous levels based upon the limited playing time he receives, and that still holds true today. But, the Thunder are favored by 16 points against a Philadelphia team that is still a bit short-handed and played their hearts out in a close loss to the Wizards last night. I don’t see a way this game doesn’t get out of hand by the early 4th quarter, which should mean even more opportunity than usual for him.
Kanter tends to pick up big minutes in blowouts, so turning to the Trends tool, let’s take a look at how he’s performed in games that the Thunder have been double-digit favorites this year.
He’s still tournament only for me this evening. And if it wasn’t for Biyombo, I’d guess that Kanter would have been extremely popular tonight. But because of him, I don’t think his ownership levels should be extraordinarily high against the 76ers, making him a potentially solid value at his price.
