Identifying value is paramount to success in NBA DFS. If we want to be able to roster the high-floor/high-ceiling premium players like Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and others, concessions – in the form of low priced players – need to be made. Lucky for us, value is constantly popping up due the nature of the NBA. Whether it be injuries, rest or rotational changes, it is not uncommon to find players thrust into more meaningful roles on a regular basis in this league. When such changes occur, daily fantasy sites generally won’t have the ability to update the player’s pricing to reflect their new role and playing time and this is where we find our value.
At FantasyLabs, we like to take things one step further. Not only will we be identifying players based upon their expected fantasy output in relation to their price, we’ll be incorporating our Bargain Rating into the equation whenever possible as well. If you’re unfamiliar with this metric, I recommend taking a look at this short video from our co-founder Jonathan Bales on how he uses this rating within our Player Models tool.
Please note, this article is written earlier in the day. As much of the news surrounding the NBA breaks near tip off, please monitor our Player News page for all relevant updates.
Point Guard
Darren Collison – $5,200
Averaging over 37 minutes per game since moving into the starting lineup for the injured Ben McLemore four games ago, Collison has taken full advantage of his opportunity, as we can see in the widget below.
McLemore is still listed as day-to-day, but even if he would return, Collison’s role on this team should remain largely unchanged – he’d played 30 or more minutes in eight of the 10 games prior to McLemore’s injury.
Collison’s role is slightly capped with Rondo healthy, but it has offered him a solid floor nonetheless. Playing alongside a great distributor in Rondo and also spending plenty of time running the point on his own – per NBAWowy, roughly 30% of Collison’s minutes over the previous four games have come without Rondo on the floor – has lead to him posting solid scoring and assist numbers for someone at his price point and makes him a very formidable option in cash games.
Our projections – available to all subscribers on the Player Models page – reflect this, as Collison’s floor of 17 DraftKings (DK) points is higher than many players priced well above him.
The matchup tonight should be positive – the Pelicans will have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.92 against him – and the game has an exploitable over/under of 222 with a 3.5-point spread.
There are a ton of punt plays that are likely to top many lists of bargain options this evening at point guard, which could allow you to differentiate a little while getting comparable value by rolling out Collison.
Shooting Guard
Evan Fournier – $5,900
Fournier was sublime last night, knocking down five 3’s on his way to posting 30 real life points. Because of that, he’ll likely be a popular play this evening at a shooting guard position that appears quite shallow in terms of value at the moment.
Because of this scarcity at the position, I’m willing to consider Fournier despite this being a back-to-back for the Magic, a situation that hasn’t necessarily been an optimal spot to consider him in thus far this season.
Utilizing our Trends tool, I’ve put together the results of all of Fournier’s back-to-backs this year.
That Consistency rating of 38.5% is scary, particularly if I’m paying $5,900 for him. My initial assumption when seeing these numbers, is that Scott Skiles and his ridiculous rotations may be at the heart of this problem, and the answer appears to be (mostly) yes.
Fournier’s minutes dipped below the thirty mark in five games and he struggled mightily in many of those, hurting his Consistency rating. What scares me more, is that after seeing solid playing time earlier in the year in back-to-backs, his minutes have been all over the place since January, when we’ve really started to feel the wrath of Skiles.
So I’ve presented a large amount of data that seemingly supports fading Fournier, so why’s he still in this column? His inclusion comes down to the scarcity at the position value-wise and Elfrid Payton’s assumed continued absence.
Without Payton (and probably Vucevic again), Skiles will be forced to lean on Oladipo and Fournier more. Backing up this thought process, is Fournier’s usage rate without Payton on the floor this year – 3.5% higher than with him – and his increased fantasy production – an additional 0.17 DK points per minute.
Assuming Payton remains out, Fournier should be a strong option despite Skiles’ presence. If Payton were to be declared active, I’d be far more hesitant to lock Fournier in after he logged over 42 minutes yesterday.
Small Forward
Lance Stephenson – $5,500
The inclusion of Stephenson is obviously caveated with him being declared active for this evening’s game. Follow us on Twitter @FantasyLabsNBA or watch the Player News page to confirm this before locking him in.
The Grizzlies’ run of endless value plays has come to a staggering halt recently, as they’ve simply been run out of the building. If Stephenson can go, he should be fresh after skipping the last game and I like his chances against a Minnesota team that is 27th in Defensive Efficiency. With Ray McCallum and Briante Weber having struggled handling point guard duties, it makes sense that we’d see Stephenson step back into his part-time role as the primary ball handler against Minnesota, which should once again boost his usage rate.
Matt Barnes still has appeal in cash games even with Stephenson in the lineup and becomes a far more intriguing option if he were to sit again.
Power Forward
Ryan Anderson – $5,500
Both Chicago power forwards are going to be extremely popular this evening after having successful games last night. What concerns me a bit about each of these options is that not only is Washington particularly strong against opposing frontcourt options, but we may also see both Derrick Rose and Mike Dunleavy back, which will cut into their usage and potentially Mirotic’s minutes as well. I don’t mind either in cash, but I’m not sure their likely ownership levels will outweigh the value they represent in tournaments.
With that being said, I think a pivot to Anderson in an elite matchup against Sacramento should offer comparable value at a greatly reduced ownership rate.
The Kings have had problems with power forwards that can stretch the floor this year, allowing an average Plus/Minus of +6.99 to opposing fours that are averaging at least one 3-pointer made per game (which Anderson is).
Anderson’s playing time and general volatility keep him in tournament territory, but with the high 222 over/under in this matchup, he stands a good chance to return very solid value tonight.
Center
Enes Kanter – $4,800
Yes, he’s producing at an unsustainable rate – a ridiculous 1.52 DK points per minute over his past five games. And yes, his price has risen a bit recently, but the matchup this evening is too tempting to not gain some exposure to Kanter and his impressive ceiling.
He has an Opponent Plus/Minus rating of +2.9 tonight, as well. In general, Boston has really struggled against centers this year:
He’ll have a game where his production falls off at some point in the near future, but if I’m building multiple tournament lineups tonight, I’m making sure to have some exposure to Kanter and his lower priced teammate Steven Adams tonight.
