Identifying value is paramount to success in NBA DFS. If we want to be able to roster the high-floor/high-ceiling premium players like Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and others, concessions – in the form of low priced players – need to be made. Lucky for us, value is constantly popping up due the nature of the NBA. Whether it be injuries, rest or rotational changes, it is not uncommon to find players thrust into more meaningful roles on a regular basis in this league. When such changes occur, daily fantasy sites generally won’t have the ability to update the player’s pricing to reflect their new role and playing time and this is where we find our value.
At FantasyLabs, we like to take things one step further. Not only will we be identifying players based upon their expected fantasy output in relation to their price, we’ll be incorporating our Bargain Rating into the equation whenever possible as well. If you’re unfamiliar with this metric, I recommend taking a look at this short video from our co-founder Jonathan Bales on how he uses this rating within our Player Models tool.
Please note, this article is written earlier in the day. As much of the news surrounding the NBA breaks near tip off, please monitor our Player News page for all relevant updates.
Point Guard
Patrick Beverly – $5,000
Prior to Saturday night, Beverly had been playing really solid basketball since the departure of Ty Lawson, having averaged 30.65 DraftKings (DK) points per game.
The absence of Lawson has resulted in Beverly seeing over 35 minutes per game (prior to Saturday), which is an impressive total for a player priced so modestly.
I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for Saturday night’s dud against the Hornets, as it was a back-to-back and his third game in four nights, all coming off of the aforementioned heavy workload.
This evening, he’ll take on a still-depleted Grizzlies squad. Over the past four games without Mike Conley in the lineup, the ragtag collection Memphis has utilized at point guard have allowed ridiculous production to opposing starting point guards.
With Tony Allen likely glued to James Harden this evening, there may be a bit of additional usage available, which should boost Beverly’s ceiling a tad. He’s still more of a cash-game option, but the Rockets’ high total of 109.5 lends a little more credence towards considering him in tournaments.
Shooting Guard
Zach LaVine – $5,700
LaVine’s price has come back down -$300 over the past week due to a couple less-than-stellar performances. At $5,700 – and considering his matchup and steady playing time – he’s my top option at shooting guard this evening.
Now, let’s get to that matchup.
The Suns will have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.78 against LaVine. Which is obviously really, really nice. But the icing on the cake is the game’s total of 219.5 with a one-point spread.
All of this sounds great, but let’s utilize our Trends tool to get a visual on how important these numbers are.
We don’t have a large sample size, but what I’m looking to establish with this Trend, is how players with amazing matchups are performing when they have a really high game total. And as we see with the Plus/Minus of +5.69, they perform well.
If Derrick Rose is out, also give consideration to Justin Holiday at +$3,600 as more of a punt-play option.
Small Forward
Marcus Morris – $5,100
Morris is always tough to peg. He plays incredibly consistent minutes – 35.9 per game – which is generally a signature of a quality cash-game option, but his production is closer to that of a tournament play.
Just a quick look at his DK points per game over his previous five – 37.25, 20.50, 34.25, 22.75, 8.75 – shows us the volatility many have come to expect from him.
But in a plus-matchup with the Wizards – he has an Opponent Plus-Minus of +2.35 tonight – he has my attention this evening as a potential low-owned tournament option.
Utilizing our Trends tool again, I parsed out the results from Morris’ matchups this season with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.0 or greater.
And then all matchups less than +2.0.
It’s not exactly rocket science, but Morris has benefited greatly from positive matchups, posting 30-plus DK points in six of his previous nine matchups featuring an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.0 or greater, making him a viable tournament option in a game featuring a decent 208.5 over/under and two-point spread.
Power Forward
Taj Gibson – $4,400
Gibson will be very popular tonight with Pau Gasol out. The minutes will be there for him, which should provide a safe enough floor for cash games. My concern with him though is the matchup.
Toronto’s either going to dare Gibson to attempt to handle 7-footer Jonas Valanciunas – who has posted double-doubles in four of his past five games – or match Chicago’s small lineup and he’ll get an extra does of Bismack Biyombo’s defense; Biyombo has a Defensive Real Plus-Minus of +4.26, fifth among centers.
Both options will likely make posting elite rebound numbers tough for Gibson tonight – Toronto allows only 7.4 rebounds per game to opposing centers, near the top of the league. But if he sees anywhere near the 35.8 minutes per game we have him projected for, there should be enough opportunity available (particularly if Rose sits) for him to hit value.
For tournaments, I’d prefer Nikola Mirotic, who should see an uptick in playing time and has a far higher ceiling due to his shooting ability.
Center
Jonas Valanciunas – $5,300
I touched on Valanciunas above, but we’ll take a deeper look here.
As I mentioned above, he’s now posted double-doubles in four of his previous five games and will likely face off against 6’9″ Gibson tonight. For that reason alone, I like his upside in tournaments, but one look at his latest stretch should remind you that tournaments are the only place he’s deserving of consideration.
The concern with Valanciunas is playing time. Also discussed above, Toronto may opt to go with a smaller lineup of Biyombo or Patrick Patterson to keep up with the Bulls’ smaller lineup tonight. If he can get upwards of 25 minutes – he’s sitting right at 25 at the moment in our projections – he has really nice upside at only $5,300 though.
