Identifying value is paramount to success in NBA DFS. If we want to be able to roster the high-floor/high-ceiling premium players like Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and others, concessions – in the form of low priced players – need to be made. Lucky for us, value is constantly popping up due the nature of the NBA. Whether it be injuries, rest or rotational changes, it is not uncommon to find players thrust into more meaningful roles on a regular basis in this league. When such changes occur, daily fantasy sites generally won’t have the ability to update the player’s pricing to reflect their new role and playing time and this is where we find our value.
At FantasyLabs, we like to take things one step further. Not only will we be identifying players based upon their expected fantasy output in relation to their price, we’ll be incorporating our Bargain Rating into the equation whenever possible as well. If you’re unfamiliar with this metric, I recommend taking a look at this short video from our co-founder Jonathan Bales on how he uses this rating within our Player Models tool.
Please note, this article is written earlier in the day. As much of the news surrounding the NBA breaks near tip off, please monitor our Player News page for all relevant updates.
Point Guard
Emmanuel Mudiay – $5,600
Mudiay has been firing on all cylinders the past two games, totaling 34.5 and 37.0 DraftKings (DK) points while averaging 35.3 minutes. And now tonight he’ll take on a Nets team that owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.1 to PGs. While the Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.1 is solid in its own right, we’ll turn to our Trends tool to further illustrate how great of a matchup this is for Mudiay.
With Mudiay projected to play over 33 minutes tonight with Jameer Nelson out again, we’ll add a filter to include only opposing point guards that were projected to play at least 25 minutes against Brooklyn this year.
That Plus/Minus of +4.60 is definitely something we want to attempt to attack. In fact, it is the fourth-highest Plus/Minus against the position this year.
With a decent over/under of 204.5 and a two-point spread, there should be ample opportunity for Mudiay to produce fantasy points tonight.
Shooting Guard
Archie Goodwin – $5,900
If you’re paying down at shooting guard this evening, you’re going to be faced with an interesting decision. E’Twaun Moore, Devin Booker, Will Barton, Marco Belinelli, Jamal Crawford and Goodwin are all priced under $6,000 and have decent enough matchups. Goodwin gets the nod over the others mostly due to his role on the Suns. Being deployed as a point guard that is highly involved in the offense – Goodwin has a projected usage rate of 25.85% tonight – and playing huge minutes, I like his floor more than the others. Don’t take my word for it though.
Turning to the Trends tool again, I’ve pulled all point guards projected to play at least 30-plus minutes with a usage rate of 25%, priced under $6,000.
Yes, the blow-out could be a concern – the Thunder are 13.5-point favorites – but Goodwin is still a solid candidate to see at least 30 minutes in this matchup.
Small Forward
Kent Bazemore – $5,200
Bazemore is fresh off of lighting up the Magic for 38 DK points last night and will get another crack at them, this time at home in Atlanta. The Magic have actually been okay against the small forward position as a whole this season, but that is with Tobias Harris in the lineup. If Harris is held out again and Evan Fournier starts, look to utilize Bazemore again as Fournier ranks 65th among shooting guards in terms of Real Defensive Plus/Minus; this compared to Harris’ ranking of 17th among small forwards.
The fact that this is a quick turnaround for Bazemore shouldn’t be a big concern. In fact, this season he’s been the Hawk to target when Atlanta is on the second leg of a back-to-back.
Power Forward
Marvin Williams – $5,500
Averaging over 35 DK points per game over his past five, Williams will now take on a Bulls’ squad that has allowed the fifth-most DK points per game over the previous 10.
Despite Williams’ solid production of late, we haven’t seen a ton of movement on his price.
And while it is up, it isn’t yet prohibitive to the point that he can’t still return solid value. With a Bargain Rating of 52% – and the pricing of those around him on – it makes a lot of sense to consider him on DraftKings and differentiate with some of the other lower priced options elsewhere tonight.
Center
Bismack Biyombo – $3,900
Ian Mahinmi and the Pacers’ bigs will likely be the value option for many players this evening, but their pricing on DraftKings – combined with their potential split in playing time – caps their ceiling in my mind. It’s not that they are bad plays – Mahinmi particularly should be in line to return solid value – but the value provided by just paying up a few thousand more is tough to pass over.
So if I’m paying down at center tonight, I’m probably doing so in tournaments and I think Biyombo offers just as much upside as Mahinmi, at what should be an almost non-existent ownership percentage.
Biyombo is four games removed from a massive 35.75 DK point showing against Drummond and the Pistons. And between Jonas Valanciunas and himself, he looked like the better player against Drummond. While Valanciunas will draw the start, our minute projections currently have him pegged for only two more minutes than Biyombo. With the propensity for teams to foul Drummond – the Pistons draw the second-most fouls from opposing centers – both big men are likely to see plenty of playing time.
Our projections – located over at the Player Models page – have Biyombo’s ceiling for tonight at 33.3 DK points. If he can see minutes in the mid to high 20’s, this number should definitely be attainable.
