Identifying value is paramount to success in NBA DFS. If we want to be able to roster the high-floor/high-ceiling premium players like Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and others, concessions – in the form of low priced players – need to be made. Lucky for us, value is constantly popping up due the nature of the NBA. Whether it be injuries, rest or rotational changes, it is not uncommon to find players thrust into more meaningful roles on a regular basis in this league. When such changes occur, daily fantasy sites generally won’t have the ability to update the player’s pricing to reflect their new role and playing time and this is where we find our value.
At FantasyLabs, we like to take things one step further. Not only will we be identifying players based upon their expected fantasy output in relation to their price, we’ll be incorporating our Bargain Rating into the equation whenever possible as well. If you’re unfamiliar with this metric, I recommend taking a look at this short video from our co-founder Jonathan Bales on how he uses this rating within our Player Models tool.
Please note, this article is written earlier in the day. As much of the news surrounding the NBA breaks near tip off, please monitor our Player News page for all relevant updates.
Point Guard
Derrick Rose – $6,200
Rose is a bit pricier than we usually recommend in this column, but I think it’s worth the few extra hundred dollars to get up to him. Denver has struggled against opposing point guards all season, which coincides perfectly with Rose’s recent re-emergence.
He’ll be matched up against Emmanuel Mudiay, which should be a very exploitable matchup for him. Mudiay is ranked 63rd among point guards in terms of Defensive Real Plus-Minus, which has correlated into Denver owning a generous Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.8.
Averaging 35.1 minutes and 33.33 DraftKings (DK) points over his previous three outings – though one of which was without Jimmy Butler in the lineup – Rose is primed to return solid value this evening. If Butler’s out – he’s questionable at the time of this writing – Rose would enter must-play territory. Be sure to monitor our Player News page throughout the day for updates on the situation.
Shooting Guard
Wayne Ellington – $4,100
Make no mistake, Ellington falls squarely into “punt-play” status, but one that has a very good chance at returning solid value. The Nets matchup against the Kings should be a high-scoring affair and even more intriguing, a close one at that. The over/under currently sits at 213 with the Kings being favored by 5.5 points.
If Ellington is able to receive anywhere near the 31.8 minutes we have him projected for – as always, be sure to check out our Player Models page where you’ll find projections for all players on tonight’s slate – he should be able to exceed his implied point total of 17.57 against a soft Kings defense that has struggled mightily against opposing shooting guards that we’ve projected to play at least 30 minutes.
As long as you temper your expectations – Ellington has a low ceiling, as he’s only topped 25 DK points once all year – he’ll make for a fine low-cost option.
Small Forward
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist – $5,200
Kidd-Gilchrist’s price is up $2,200 over the past week, but he’s actually still a great bargain on DK. With a Bargain Rating of 77%, DK is the optimal site to consider rostering MKG tonight.
Utilizing our Trends tool, I’ve pulled players based upon nothing more than a Bargain Rating of 77%, a price under $6,000 and a minute projection for 30 or more minutes. Value at the lower tiers has been extremely tough to come with DK’s tighter pricing this season, and this trend shows us just how powerful the Bargain Rating can be.
Kemba Walker’s return to the lineup, along with Jeremy Lamb and Nicolas Batum assumingly healthy, may lead to a slight reduction in opportunity and playing time for Kidd-Gilchrist, but the price is reasonable enough to assume the risk tonight.
Power Forward
Dirk Nowitzki – $5,900
Recall that Bargain Rating rating trend we spoke about above? Well if we tweak it just a smidge – literally adjusting the minute projection by just 0.1 minutes – Nowitzki actually qualifies as a current match as well.
Nowitzki has been returning nice value over the past three games, averaging 34.1 DK points per contest. A matchup against the Spurs is generally one we’re targeting, but without Tim Duncan around to help protect the rim, they’ve struggled in the frontcourt. Opposing starting power forwards have averaged 39.85 DK points over the past five contests, putting Nowitzki squarely in play at his reduced price of $5,900.
Center
Nikola Jokic – $5,900
Jokic has been playing ridiculous of late, averaging 36.9 DK points per game over his last seven. And now you’re telling me he gets to take on a soft Bulls frontcourt that will possibly be without Pau Gasol? Where do I sign up?
The Bulls have had no answer for opposing centers this season, as evidenced by the trend below. And with Gasol possibly absent, there’s no reason to believe they’ll be able to improve tonight.
As of this writing, Jokic is listed as probable for tonight’s game. Monitor his status up until tip-off to make sure he’s active before locking him in.
